The end?

borolad259 said:
I just asked. This is his reply.

"It is the Ukrainian estimate, it incorporates everyone that died during Russian storming of cities, people killed for various reasons, assassinations, massacres, torture centers, so so many atrocities."

I then asked, is this since 2014? or 2022. Itwas the latter. It is, as he said, why it is being called genocide.

On Russian numbers, the Russian government has just announced that it is issuing 239,000 death certificates for those killed in action. This does not include those left to rot on the battlefield (estimate 150,000), just those recovered and buried.

This current promotional video encouraging Russians to sign up indicates their mind set. Just as with Crimea and the other occupied territories, the plan is (still) to cleanse Ukraine and replace Ukrainians with Russians.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704012871183532494
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The combat casualties on both sides don't surprise me at all unfortunately, although I hoped it might be a third less for Ukraine. They were vastly outnumbered and outgunned in the early years and western equipment took a while to filter through. Then there have been crazy meat grinders which even though they have proportionally 'won' have still been horrifically costly. As it has been since WW1, it is still artillery that does the damage and although Russia is finally now struggling to supply, for most of the 18 months to date and in keeping with it's own doctrine since WW2, it has been it's main tactic and it has been indiscriminate blanket barrage. I guess that accounts for such enormous civilian deaths too. The Einsatzgruppen type massacres are more shocking, but the artillery deadlier.

I'd be interested in the Russian dead to wounded ratio. It sounds like it's reaching WW2 Japanese Pacific Island levels.

God, this is so awful. How either country can ever get over this until it is gone from living memory I just don't know.
 
Lefty said:
The combat casualties on both sides don't surprise me at all unfortunately, although I hoped it might be a third less for Ukraine. They were vastly outnumbered and outgunned in the early years and western equipment took a while to filter through. Then there have been crazy meat grinders which even though they have proportionally 'won' have still been horrifically costly. As it has been since WW1, it is still artillery that does the damage and although Russia is finally now struggling to supply, for most of the 18 months to date and in keeping with it's own doctrine since WW2, it has been it's main tactic and it has been indiscriminate blanket barrage. I guess that accounts for such enormous civilian deaths too. The Einsatzgruppen type massacres are more shocking, but the artillery deadlier.

I'd be interested in the Russian dead to wounded ratio. It sounds like it's reaching WW2 Japanese Pacific Island levels.

God, this is so awful. How either country can ever get over this until it is gone from living memory I just don't know.
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From Brigadier Covid

"We previously believed that one Ukrainian is lost per three Russian soldiers, we now think it is 1 to 4.
According to conventional wisdom of 1 to 3 ratio of wounded to killed this would mean 1 140 000 injured and permanently disabled soldiers.
I do not believe that is true due to the abysmal standards of Russian medical care.
I believe it is 1 to 2, so 760 000 wounded and disabled soldiers.

Ukraine has though made combat medicine into an artform and are currently at 1 to 4 in ratio, so 360 000 wounded and disabled."
 
Another ship in Sevastopol boomed by a sneaky, plus a radar system at Belbek air field (former International Airport)
Also, I should add, that the storm shadow caught on film over crimea yesterday was not what hit the bridge. That was headed for barracks near the bridge where the bridge guards are stationed.
 
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Ukr do seem to be having a lot of small gains at the moment (if you call making a colander out of a sub and several ships into subs). Here’s my take as to what‘s going on, based on the sum of my research which totals absolutely zip all.

Ukr know they won’t expel all of the invaders before the rainy season starts, what they need to do is get themselves into the best position possible before then. That means controlling as much high ground and transport routes as possible and effectively laying siege to Crimea. They don’t want to spend another winter wasting lives and resources on another Bakhmut.

If they can get themselves into a stable position where they can re supply, rotate troops and sit ready to go again as soon as it dries out, while in the meantime having the invaders in a choke hold I think this would be a very good and not too costly place to sit out the winter waiting for F16’s and loads of other fancy tuff being promised, it could be a rout next year. Russia being able to throw bodies at it won’t matter because you’ve got to get them there along with equipment food etc. and if you control the supply routes……

I think a lot of the action and areas of progress indicate this could well be what is happening. The only thing I’m not sure about is laying siege to Crimea because there are a lot of Ukr citizens there and they would suffer, maybe this is why the bridge still stands but keeps getting nibbled at.

But then again, what do I know, other than I wouldn’t want to be a Russian soldier sitting in a trench hoping my next meal comes before I become an ice cube.
 
What I’d add to that IF is that the further South possibly the less impact of the rainy season, certainly the geography in the west is quite different to the east.
 
I was reading somewhere today (and I've lost the link) that France was preparing Mirage jets for Ukraine. First I'd heard of that option. Once they have the F16s and (if they get them) Mirage they will be able to establish if not control of the airspace at least an end to Russian dominance. If the Russians can't defend Sevastopol the rest of The Crimea is pretty much hittable. I wouldn't fancy hanging around the Kerch Bridge at the moment, it couldn't be a more obvious target if they painted a dartboard on it.
 
Well, as you are probably aware by now, they already have "sneaky" stuff that can do the job ... in limited quantities at the moment, but as more pilots fly through The Gap, there will be more. The sneaky thing that hit the bridge yesterday was ground launched btw. And it was basically a test firing. Now they know it works, they can hit at will. They are taking out high value targets nearly every day at the moment, and I anticipate that trend to continue. There will be a major move in the next couple of weeks.

And, as I think our man pointed out, there are parts of the occupied territories that are not prone to Rasputitsa. S.W region. That is also, currently, the least well defended.
 
Overnight the Ukrainians launched a massive aerial bombardment. Yesterday's busy booming actually was just a foretaste. Four hours of non stop booming with drones, storm shadows and other sneaky stuff. As the Russians ran out of air defence after one hour, this continused with planes. You should have plenty to read about today. The bridge hit a few times I believe.
 
Looks like the winter 2023 Russian cruise missile offensive on Ukrainian infrastructure started last night.

More than is usual got through, plus they used S-300's on Kharkiv

More air defence please
 
A short version of this morning's missive. Remember, he's talking to a few friends.

"I remind everyone that I gave fair warning on the popcorn front.
I would advice getting more for later... this was just the warm up.

Sleeping is a joy best not expected during a war.
Tonight was though mostly for good reasons.

Yesterday Ukraine performed some precission strikes during the day in Crimea.
But, as my head hit the pillow they took it to the next level entirely, so it was just to get up again.

Ukraine hit Crimea with a wave of almost 100 drones with missiles interspersed in an hour, this totally overwhelmed the Russian air defence until the point that it ran out of missiles in the entirety of Crimea.

After that followed a 3 hour long Crimean turkey shoot, with the Russians and Russian things being the turkeys doing Sad Gobble-gobble Noises.
If we counted correctly another 100 drones and 40 missiles slamed in, and in the last hour Ukraine used airplanes to point bombard Russian facilities.

Every single base was hit at least once, every known ammo dump, every known AD installation, and the Bridge was hit at least once.

3 hours of firing upon an open goal will have made a lot of damage.
It will take at least two full days to estimate the damages done in Crimea.

It is the largest consolidated aerial bombardment in the war, even larger than the Russian campaigns at the beginning of the war, but this time done with devastating precission.

The Russian "answer" was to launch everything they had ready to launch before it got destroyed.
So far the only known damage of this was our bus stop near where we are, it was just outside of our cone of interception.
Russian target acquisition is really something, it must be done on purpose really by someone in Russia.
It's a bit schizophrenic really, some Russian target analysts seem to only target nurseries, kindergartens and childrens hospitals, and some have a true dislike of bus stops and public toilets.
And none seem to target military targets."
 
Decent_Left said:
Looks like the winter 2023 Russian cruise missile offensive on Ukrainian infrastructure started last night.

More than is usual got through, plus they used S-300's on Kharkiv

More air defence please
Click to expand...

Pretty bleak looking on Geraschenko's feed. Most were shot down I believe, but a lot of damage caused by falling bits of missile and AD missiles. No military targets. Insane really. Genocide. But it will not alter the trajectory of the war.
 
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