Frankie Lee
Active member
Are you sure those figures are right? I’m not having a go but 1 million civilian dead can’t be right?
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Just think of Bucha and Mariupol alone. And, although you don't always hear about it, civilians are still being killed by artillary, rockets and missiles daily. Kherson is still being hit daily.
Anyway. Some "better" news.
"We have now officially entered the Phase of the War that I call "Snap, crackle & pop".
Here are the next units on the road to obliteration.
Criteria, they are all decimated down to the next step in size, so something named a Brigade, or a regiment (half Brigade), is now a battalion, a battalion is a company, etcetera...
I will do them in numbers order...
22nd Spetznas Battalion (not very "spetznasy", more like infantry in all but name)
51st Brigade VDV
70th Brigade
100th Brigade
200th Brigade
247th Regiment VDV
Just as an example:
The 100th Brigade is a battalion strength unit, sitting on a hill near Bakhmut, eating cluster ammunition all day long and will not be any longer in a couple of days.
All the others are in similar dire straits and bad situations.
Moscow
There is a meeting in the Security Council to discuss best practices of smoking Baikal Omul and in general what to do.
It will be interesting to see what they will do.
Right now they desperately need to move close to 3 divisions worth of soldiers from Luhansk to even be able to stop the current offensive dead in the tracks for a month.
If they do less it does not help them and will just be Russia serving up dessert for the Ukrainian artillery.
And if they do the Luhansk Winter Offensive is defenitely cancelled.
My guess?
Russia will in their infinite wisdom send only a token force, and instead go on an offensive over at Luhansk beginning tomorrow.
If so, the **st is not doing a heck of a lot and will probably amble over and that would be that (again) for the Russians.
There is also a couple of other sizeable forces up there ready for a counter-offensive on the hapless Russians as the come storming across the fields.
It will be the Battle of Kreminna all over again, with old Russian junk slowly ambling up to modern tech darting about dishing out death.
Best thing with Russians, they never fecking learn by their mistakes.
Surovikin
He has resurfaced in Africa and seems to be in charge of the Russian holdings there.
He rapidly instigated a coup in the "other" Congo.
The Republic of The Congo, not the Democratic Republic of Congo (the big one).
What we fear a bit is that he will soon be seen as rehabilitated and sent back in to try to save the Russian day.
If he would go, and have a decent mandate, he would slow things down considerably since he is actually able to learn and follows doctrine to a T.
But, for now it is Putin and Shoigu running the show while making Sad Russian Noises.
We will see!"
Frankie Lee
Active member
Yeah I understand. It’s just an enormous jump from the reported figure of 10,000.
The grey smoke is a hit. The two white plumes are smoke screen.
Edit update, it was hit by a single sneaky thing that was launched as a "see if it gets through AD". It hit precisely where the bridge had just been patched up.
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Security council things
"Security Council Wisdom
Gerasimov tried to argue for moving units from Luhansk to Bakhmut and elsewhere.
He wanted to move 4 full divisions to plug things until winter.
This would have been the professional thing to do.
This was rapidly shut down by Putin and Shoigu.
None of the Intelligence members even talked, nor gave any opinion.
I see this as silent criticism.
Instead it was decided to move units locally to plug the hole at Bakhmut, this is now weakening the other parts of the Bakhmut sector.
Russia will use these few feeble units for further counter-attacks (already ongoing).
No new units will be sent from Luhansk.
Same goes for all other sectors.
This will obviously widen the collapse and increase the speed with which the frontlines collapses.
Hence the Christmas feeling.
On top of that Putin ordered that the Winter Offensive should be started as soon as possible, and the units there are not yet ready.
The goal here is probably to draw in Ukrainian reserves.
Problem is that the Ukrainians are ready here, and Syrskyi believe that he can hold and win with troops available.
He has quite a number already, and with two strong armoured Brigades ready to plug any leaks.
I like that they are gonna spend their last available troops up in the North so early.
I expect them to start their nipplifications tomorrow or the day after."
"Security Council Wisdom
Gerasimov tried to argue for moving units from Luhansk to Bakhmut and elsewhere.
He wanted to move 4 full divisions to plug things until winter.
This would have been the professional thing to do.
This was rapidly shut down by Putin and Shoigu.
None of the Intelligence members even talked, nor gave any opinion.
I see this as silent criticism.
Instead it was decided to move units locally to plug the hole at Bakhmut, this is now weakening the other parts of the Bakhmut sector.
Russia will use these few feeble units for further counter-attacks (already ongoing).
No new units will be sent from Luhansk.
Same goes for all other sectors.
This will obviously widen the collapse and increase the speed with which the frontlines collapses.
Hence the Christmas feeling.
On top of that Putin ordered that the Winter Offensive should be started as soon as possible, and the units there are not yet ready.
The goal here is probably to draw in Ukrainian reserves.
Problem is that the Ukrainians are ready here, and Syrskyi believe that he can hold and win with troops available.
He has quite a number already, and with two strong armoured Brigades ready to plug any leaks.
I like that they are gonna spend their last available troops up in the North so early.
I expect them to start their nipplifications tomorrow or the day after."
Lefty
Well-known member
I suppose it is possible that there are errors in methodology on the calculations.
I remember a thread on here post the invasion of Iraq after it was all turning into a quagmire of internal strife between Saudi and Iranian backed insurgents fighting each other and Coalition forces. Johns Hopkins were estimating 1,000,000 civilillian deaths, many through starvation and disease rather than munitions, if I remember correctly. They had tried to work out the dead by looking at census info pre war, then doing as detailed a survey as they could, knocking on doors, talking to people about neighbours, looking at recorded refugee numbers relocated. I can remember arguing that Johns Hopkins were probably close on the right number. They weren't. There were many people just hiding with family all over the country and afraid to give truthful answers.
Let's hope there is something like that here, where significant numbers have moved around and not counted in that way. I'm sure the death toll is massive even so.
More from Brigadier Covid (most of command HQ have it)
"Ships and Bridge
Russia is farting flames, seems that they have lost a corvette again.
We are awaiting confirmation of it being sunk right now.
I do not think Russia will have a navy left in a month or two.
A lone little sneaky missile hit the newly patched spot on the Kersh Bridge.
So, traffic is down again.
Just as a reminder, the train bridge is still down, and Russia had just managed to get one of the two car decks up and running.
In Melitopol the Russians decided to stage a party today to plan the upcoming defence of Tokmak.
Those Russians were retired as the hotel they had taken in at ceased to exist around them.
Conclusion
Thankfully we are in the phase of grinding down a couple of more brigades.
And our brigades know what to do, and both the 2nd TAG and the **st are completely able to run their shows.
But, reports need to be processed, and we need to keep an eye on things.
I am now really looking forward to sleeping..."
"Ships and Bridge
Russia is farting flames, seems that they have lost a corvette again.
We are awaiting confirmation of it being sunk right now.
I do not think Russia will have a navy left in a month or two.
A lone little sneaky missile hit the newly patched spot on the Kersh Bridge.
So, traffic is down again.
Just as a reminder, the train bridge is still down, and Russia had just managed to get one of the two car decks up and running.
In Melitopol the Russians decided to stage a party today to plan the upcoming defence of Tokmak.
Those Russians were retired as the hotel they had taken in at ceased to exist around them.
Conclusion
Thankfully we are in the phase of grinding down a couple of more brigades.
And our brigades know what to do, and both the 2nd TAG and the **st are completely able to run their shows.
But, reports need to be processed, and we need to keep an eye on things.
I am now really looking forward to sleeping..."
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I just asked. This is his reply.
"It is the Ukrainian estimate, it incorporates everyone that died during Russian storming of cities, people killed for various reasons, assassinations, massacres, torture centers, so so many atrocities."
I then asked, is this since 2014? or 2022. Itwas the latter. It is, as he said, why it is being called genocide.
On Russian numbers, the Russian government has just announced that it is issuing 239,000 death certificates for those killed in action. This does not include those left to rot on the battlefield (estimate 150,000), just those recovered and buried.
This current promotional video encouraging Russians to sign up indicates their mind set. Just as with Crimea and the other occupied territories, the plan is (still) to cleanse Ukraine and replace Ukrainians with Russians.
Lefty
Well-known member
The combat casualties on both sides don't surprise me at all unfortunately, although I hoped it might be a third less for Ukraine. They were vastly outnumbered and outgunned in the early years and western equipment took a while to filter through. Then there have been crazy meat grinders which even though they have proportionally 'won' have still been horrifically costly. As it has been since WW1, it is still artillery that does the damage and although Russia is finally now struggling to supply, for most of the 18 months to date and in keeping with it's own doctrine since WW2, it has been it's main tactic and it has been indiscriminate blanket barrage. I guess that accounts for such enormous civilian deaths too. The Einsatzgruppen type massacres are more shocking, but the artillery deadlier.
I'd be interested in the Russian dead to wounded ratio. It sounds like it's reaching WW2 Japanese Pacific Island levels.
God, this is so awful. How either country can ever get over this until it is gone from living memory I just don't know.
From Brigadier Covid
"We previously believed that one Ukrainian is lost per three Russian soldiers, we now think it is 1 to 4.
According to conventional wisdom of 1 to 3 ratio of wounded to killed this would mean 1 140 000 injured and permanently disabled soldiers.
I do not believe that is true due to the abysmal standards of Russian medical care.
I believe it is 1 to 2, so 760 000 wounded and disabled soldiers.
Ukraine has though made combat medicine into an artform and are currently at 1 to 4 in ratio, so 360 000 wounded and disabled."
Subbuteo_171
Well-known member
How many of those wounded get back to the frontline?
Looking at the pure numbers Russia can keep going much longer than Ukraine can despite the differences in casualties. Obviously it’s much more nuanced than that, for example which side Ukrainian nationals with Russian ethnicity are on, think there were 43m overall pre war with a rough 80/20 split.
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
Another ship in Sevastopol boomed by a sneaky, plus a radar system at Belbek air field (former International Airport)
Also, I should add, that the storm shadow caught on film over crimea yesterday was not what hit the bridge. That was headed for barracks near the bridge where the bridge guards are stationed.
Also, I should add, that the storm shadow caught on film over crimea yesterday was not what hit the bridge. That was headed for barracks near the bridge where the bridge guards are stationed.
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This is exactly as our man has been saying for months.
Black sea fleet command also taken out.
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
Ukr do seem to be having a lot of small gains at the moment (if you call making a colander out of a sub and several ships into subs). Here’s my take as to what‘s going on, based on the sum of my research which totals absolutely zip all.
Ukr know they won’t expel all of the invaders before the rainy season starts, what they need to do is get themselves into the best position possible before then. That means controlling as much high ground and transport routes as possible and effectively laying siege to Crimea. They don’t want to spend another winter wasting lives and resources on another Bakhmut.
If they can get themselves into a stable position where they can re supply, rotate troops and sit ready to go again as soon as it dries out, while in the meantime having the invaders in a choke hold I think this would be a very good and not too costly place to sit out the winter waiting for F16’s and loads of other fancy tuff being promised, it could be a rout next year. Russia being able to throw bodies at it won’t matter because you’ve got to get them there along with equipment food etc. and if you control the supply routes……
I think a lot of the action and areas of progress indicate this could well be what is happening. The only thing I’m not sure about is laying siege to Crimea because there are a lot of Ukr citizens there and they would suffer, maybe this is why the bridge still stands but keeps getting nibbled at.
But then again, what do I know, other than I wouldn’t want to be a Russian soldier sitting in a trench hoping my next meal comes before I become an ice cube.
Ukr know they won’t expel all of the invaders before the rainy season starts, what they need to do is get themselves into the best position possible before then. That means controlling as much high ground and transport routes as possible and effectively laying siege to Crimea. They don’t want to spend another winter wasting lives and resources on another Bakhmut.
If they can get themselves into a stable position where they can re supply, rotate troops and sit ready to go again as soon as it dries out, while in the meantime having the invaders in a choke hold I think this would be a very good and not too costly place to sit out the winter waiting for F16’s and loads of other fancy tuff being promised, it could be a rout next year. Russia being able to throw bodies at it won’t matter because you’ve got to get them there along with equipment food etc. and if you control the supply routes……
I think a lot of the action and areas of progress indicate this could well be what is happening. The only thing I’m not sure about is laying siege to Crimea because there are a lot of Ukr citizens there and they would suffer, maybe this is why the bridge still stands but keeps getting nibbled at.
But then again, what do I know, other than I wouldn’t want to be a Russian soldier sitting in a trench hoping my next meal comes before I become an ice cube.
Decent_Left
Well-known member
What I’d add to that IF is that the further South possibly the less impact of the rainy season, certainly the geography in the west is quite different to the east.
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
Then maybe a bit more than a holding pattern for Crimea.