The end?

Druss_The_Legend said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1708629197617336398
Elon Muskova has certainly annoyed a lot of Ukrainian people and supporters of Ukraine in general. I really don't get the fella is he just an attention seeker? Or is he that rich he doesn't care and thinks he is above and beyond any form of decency and decorum?
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Born rich and a petulant troll. He's ruining twitter, been fired from his own businesses ... berk.
 
Ok, some updates in brief.
South of Donetsk city Ukrainian forces are moving along that outer ring road and have the Petrovsky district under fiore control and are threatening the big spaghetti junction and the H20 Mariupol road.
Headway is being made slowly all along the southern fron, from Vuhledar towards Tokmak.
The Ukrainians have crossed the railway lines south of Bakhmut and have the south of the city under fire control. They are not far from cutting all the southern supply routes into Bakhmut.
The Russian Freedom fighter mob are making repeated raids across the border, which is now more or less devoid of border guards.
It's now thought that the Russian army amassed in Luhansk is not there as an offensive force but as a defence for Moscow ... both against any Ukrainian incursion or, more pertinently, any wannbe Prigozhin types.

Finally, this, rather dark posting this morning.

"We are seeing preparations in Murmansk of what we interpret as Russia getting ready to perform a nuclear launch.
They have built a new launch site, and there's also preparatory work being done in Novaja Zemlja (arctic).
This also corroborates with physical intel from Russia.

We have good reason to believe that this will be a second test launch of their boonfangled idiotic nuclear powered cruise missile nuclear bomb delivery vehicle.
They tried this lunacy a year ago and it failed miserably and iradiated quite an area.
Now they want to try it again, but this time they are seemingly sticking a nuke into the launch vehicle.

The idea of making a nuclear powered missile was already a thing in the 60s, but the US ditched it since the effect of having a nuclear missile was horrendous to say the least.
You will irradiate everything from the launch site over to the target.

The reason for this is that the reactor must be without shielding due to the weight restrictions.
This is why the US, The Soviet Union, and everyone else and the cat scrapped the idea already back then, and in the 60s nuclear safety was truly not a thing...
But, modern Russia is made out of far stupider stuff.

I do not think it will work this time either.
The reaason is the lack of shielding, that makes it impossible to use electronics (unless you shield those with whale load of lead or boron, so the targeting is done with a mechanical instrument.
On top of the you have to shield the electronics of the nuclear bomb that is attached from the radiation of the reactor in the launch vehicle.
Yes, the bomb electronics are shielded from the bombs radiation, but this means that they are outside of the bombs shielding...

In the last test the launch vehicle flew a shortish distance, and then hit the water and broke up, causing a nuclear reactor to sink into the Arctic Ocean.
I am fairly certain that this will happen again, but probably a bit further away, and this time with a nuclear bomb chucked in just for funzies.

The only good part with using a nuclear powered missile is that it has almost infinite range.
The drawback is that anyone handling the missile will die from radiation sickness.

Why?
Russia has overused the nuclear threats during the war.
For every lost village and new weapon going to Ukraine we have Medvedev or someone else threatening to use nukes.
It has by now completely turned into a "So, again?".
There is also the not so small thing that the large majority of Russian nukes are non-functional due to neglected maintenance, same goes for their large ballistic intercontinental missiles.

This is why Russia is now desperate enough to attempt to break The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-ban Treaty.
A treaty that they themselves was no small part in creating.

Problem
To achieve the political goal of reminding everyone that they have nukes and that they are willing to use them would have been better served by just dropping one from a bomber, or by launching a conventional missile.

But, Russia is trying to over-achieve here by using a new "Wunderwaffe" as a delivery mechanism.
And, I think that will come to bite them in the **** and that the entire thing fail and everyone will laugh at them.

So, if you are into watching Flightradar24 or something similar, this is why you are seeing constant NATO signal intelligence planes in the Arctic Ocean to monitor what happens.

Conclusion
Russian stupidity is reaching new levels as they attempt to do things that even the Soviet Union found to be way to stupid.
Also, remember here that the Soviet nuclear program was led by Zakharov, a true genius in the field.
Russia now does not even have enough normal brains to pull it off, note that all of their new weapons are failures or so badly constructed that they can't fulfill what they promise.

I seriously doubt that Russia has the skillset to invent a mechanical target control computer, nor the skillset to build it so that it works.
I would even go so far as to say that Russia no longer have the industrial skillset to newbuild new nuclear bombs."

So, remember this as the news about the upcoming nuclear test hit the news cycle.
And... even if they would pull off the miracle and make a successful test, it does not change anything.
All they proved is that they are stupid then."
 
borolad259 said:
Ok, some updates in brief.
South of Donetsk city Ukrainian forces are moving along that outer ring road and have the Petrovsky district under fiore control and are threatening the big spaghetti junction and the H20 Mariupol road.
Headway is being made slowly all along the southern fron, from Vuhledar towards Tokmak.
The Ukrainians have crossed the railway lines south of Bakhmut and have the south of the city under fire control. They are not far from cutting all the southern supply routes into Bakhmut.
The Russian Freedom fighter mob are making repeated raids across the border, which is now more or less devoid of border guards.
It's now thought that the Russian army amassed in Luhansk is not there as an offensive force but as a defence for Moscow ... both against any Ukrainian incursion or, more pertinently, any wannbe Prigozhin types.

Finally, this, rather dark posting this morning.

"We are seeing preparations in Murmansk of what we interpret as Russia getting ready to perform a nuclear launch.
They have built a new launch site, and there's also preparatory work being done in Novaja Zemlja (arctic).
This also corroborates with physical intel from Russia.

We have good reason to believe that this will be a second test launch of their boonfangled idiotic nuclear powered cruise missile nuclear bomb delivery vehicle.
They tried this lunacy a year ago and it failed miserably and iradiated quite an area.
Now they want to try it again, but this time they are seemingly sticking a nuke into the launch vehicle.

The idea of making a nuclear powered missile was already a thing in the 60s, but the US ditched it since the effect of having a nuclear missile was horrendous to say the least.
You will irradiate everything from the launch site over to the target.

The reason for this is that the reactor must be without shielding due to the weight restrictions.
This is why the US, The Soviet Union, and everyone else and the cat scrapped the idea already back then, and in the 60s nuclear safety was truly not a thing...
But, modern Russia is made out of far stupider stuff.

I do not think it will work this time either.
The reaason is the lack of shielding, that makes it impossible to use electronics (unless you shield those with whale load of lead or boron, so the targeting is done with a mechanical instrument.
On top of the you have to shield the electronics of the nuclear bomb that is attached from the radiation of the reactor in the launch vehicle.
Yes, the bomb electronics are shielded from the bombs radiation, but this means that they are outside of the bombs shielding...

In the last test the launch vehicle flew a shortish distance, and then hit the water and broke up, causing a nuclear reactor to sink into the Arctic Ocean.
I am fairly certain that this will happen again, but probably a bit further away, and this time with a nuclear bomb chucked in just for funzies.

The only good part with using a nuclear powered missile is that it has almost infinite range.
The drawback is that anyone handling the missile will die from radiation sickness.

Why?
Russia has overused the nuclear threats during the war.
For every lost village and new weapon going to Ukraine we have Medvedev or someone else threatening to use nukes.
It has by now completely turned into a "So, again?".
There is also the not so small thing that the large majority of Russian nukes are non-functional due to neglected maintenance, same goes for their large ballistic intercontinental missiles.

This is why Russia is now desperate enough to attempt to break The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-ban Treaty.
A treaty that they themselves was no small part in creating.

Problem
To achieve the political goal of reminding everyone that they have nukes and that they are willing to use them would have been better served by just dropping one from a bomber, or by launching a conventional missile.

But, Russia is trying to over-achieve here by using a new "Wunderwaffe" as a delivery mechanism.
And, I think that will come to bite them in the **** and that the entire thing fail and everyone will laugh at them.

So, if you are into watching Flightradar24 or something similar, this is why you are seeing constant NATO signal intelligence planes in the Arctic Ocean to monitor what happens.

Conclusion
Russian stupidity is reaching new levels as they attempt to do things that even the Soviet Union found to be way to stupid.
Also, remember here that the Soviet nuclear program was led by Zakharov, a true genius in the field.
Russia now does not even have enough normal brains to pull it off, note that all of their new weapons are failures or so badly constructed that they can't fulfill what they promise.

I seriously doubt that Russia has the skillset to invent a mechanical target control computer, nor the skillset to build it so that it works.
I would even go so far as to say that Russia no longer have the industrial skillset to newbuild new nuclear bombs."

So, remember this as the news about the upcoming nuclear test hit the news cycle.
And... even if they would pull off the miracle and make a successful test, it does not change anything.
All they proved is that they are stupid then."
Click to expand...
You are right that is a ‘dark’ post.

Hard to see any climb down by any party to try to end this shocking war.
 
HolgateCorner said:
You are right that is a ‘dark’ post.

Hard to see any climb down by any party to try to end this shocking war.
Click to expand...

The missile test will be an environmental problem. I very much doubt that it will alter the course of the war which is still a case of Russia losing over a long period of time and many people losing their lives senselessly. The reason that progress will be slow is that the Ukrainians are going about achieving their objectives with preserving life and equipment in mind. So, whilst they could pretty much charge down to Mariupol now, they won't because the death toll would be high. But you will start to see even more evidence of progress in various areas in the coming weeks... and remember, the long term aim for the Ukrainians is to prevent the loss of millions of lives.

I asked my mate about this yesterday. I think I am ok posting this as it is hypothetical.

"Nick asked two very good questions yesterday, and I thought it might be educational to answer it.
Obviously I am answering this from a purely hypothetical aspect.

Effect of taking H20?
Let us say that we would clear The Ramparts and grab hold of a chunk of the H20 and the Spaghetti-junction just south of Donetsk City.
What would be the effect of that?

I will start with the spaghetti junction.
It would cut the southern part of the Ringroad since the next large junction over would be under direct optical fire control.
It would hamper and elongate the distance of the Russian logistics to support Donetsk City a lot, and it would cut any direct transports between Mariupol and Taganrog, and lead to immense detours sapping a lot of fuel and energy.

On top of that it would give a very good and wide road inwards to Donetsk City for if/when it will be liberated fully.
Note, right now it is not about liberation, it is about getting options for later and to cut logistics.
It would also make the Russian positions in the Southern part of the City very uncomfortable since they would be within comfortable artillery range.

(Sidenote, Ukraine set a new record yesterday with 47 destroyed artillery systems)

Next advantage is that it would give good road access to liberate villages and areas southward and towards the Southeast and East.
Options :)

Thunder Run or Slog
Let us hypothetically say that we take the Ramparts and get a comfy hold of the H20, and even more hypothetically decide to go for a cup of tea and biscuits in Mariupol harbour.

From a purely firepower and numbers game we could perform a Thunder Run to achieve our teaspot.
It could be done in 2 to 4 weeks, but at a very heavy cost.
Our estimate is that currently it would cost us 30 percent of our equipment, and between 10 000 and 20 000 dead and wounded, mostly in the offencive forces.

That means that it would take months to recouperate from the loss, if it would even be possible.
And that would delay the next offensive.
It is a case of what time is saved now, comes back to bite you in the **** later.

No, slog it would be.
There are 12 villages, towns, and even Volnovakha City to take just on the road alone.
Then we would need to take a barebones minimum of 5km on either side, preferably 10km.
That would add another 50 villages to clear out.

Due to the road being a constricting factor, and that we can't concentrate forces enough (that would give a higher loss rate), we would loke at taking one of the road villages every week or two.
The side-villages can be taken by followup forces.
So, a slog of between 12 and 24 weeks.

The good part is though that there are less defencelines here, and it is comparatively easy to demine paved roads.
The disadvantage is that there are bridges along the way that will be blown.

In other words, we are looking at April to June in our hypothetical example of going to the Port of Mariupol to drink tea.
Who knew that it would take so long to galumph down 75km of good road?
So, would there be other benefits along the road?

Oh yes, quite benefits are to be had as you slowly slog onwards.
Already at Vonovakha you have cut the railroad, but that is not so important since we already have it under firecontrol where we are now.
But, at Volnovakha we cut the T0512 Road to Novo'azovsk, and that gives the option to push towards the actual Russian border later on.

25km onwards and we would have the T0523 junction under control.
At that point we have can use tube artillery to hit anything inside Mariupol at our leisure and the M14 would also be within range.
We also at the T0523 get the option to cut down to Nikol'ske and onwards to Manhush (something that most women wish that we men would do more often).
Manhush would have the same advantages as taking Mariupol really, since this would cut a railroad and the M14.

Notice here that if you go down the T0512 and T0523 you would not need to take Mariupol, it would be completely encircled anyway.
Options, so good to have.
And for every village we would deprive the Russians of an option or two, and we gain one or two options.

Lossrate
Going slow and meticulous would at worst give a 15 percent equipment loss rate and 5000 to 10 000 killed and wounded.
Best case scenario if 10 percent equipment and 2 500 to 5 000 dead and wounded.
From a military thery standpoint this is acceptable losses.
And, it is important here to note that it would shorten the war with between 6 and 12 months, and likely save 100 000 or more civilian lives.

Russian losses?
Between 20 000 and 50 000 depending on how many mobiks they send in to hold.
If they do meatwave counteroffensives this could increase significantly.
Why would the lossrate disparity increase so much?

The reason is that the Russian artillery is constantly degrading now, and that rate is increasing daily with a tiny fraction.
Russian artillery will probably not reach Zero amount during this war, but the amount of barrels operating is constantly falling, every 20 days there's 500 less artillery systems, and since the system losses are stable (or even increasing) against a diminishing amount the percentage loss is increasing fast now.
Also, Russia has a tremendous shell hunger.

Obviously this will over time have effects on the time it takes to take a village (that I did not factor in above), and it is constantly improve the difference in casualty rates in favour of Ukraine.

How bad is this for the Russians?
Just to make a personal observation.
During my time here the Russian artillery fire rate has dropped by 60 percent across the board.
And before I arrived it had already dropped by about 75 percent from peak rate during the taking of Mariupol.

This is why I am saying that the war is over from a military standpoint.
Even if we count that Ukraine will only receive the same amount of shells as of now, they would still remove all Russian artillery in a single Year.
And, currently Ukraine is firing more than two shells per every Russian, and what Ukraine fire is far more exact.

When we talk to each other it is not missiles, fighter jets, tanks and CVs, or other high tech things we talk about.
It is artillery, more artillery, and then more artillery.
What do we constantly ask for?
More artillery systems and shells...
Instead we get Deathmageddonator 2000 since those are sexier for politicians to talk about.
Okay, we find them sexy too, but... artillery wins wars, and Deathmageddonators scares politicians into not starting wars.

Iosif Stalin was correct in that "Artillery is the God of War".
And right now that god is way in our favour, and we would love to fatten our pet god up with more systems and shells.

An example, with 100 more Archers the time to take Mariupol would drop by half.
1000 of them and the shells to fire and we could do away with the war in 6 months or less.
I am certain that we will get a lot of sexy Deathmageddonators instead.

We will see!"
 
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MoggasDog said:
This kind of escalation is exactly what I was afraid of.
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But what else is to be done ?

You cannot just bow to what a nuclear armed country wants because it sets a bad precedent that they can do anything if they threaten enough with nukes . I mean if Russia outright said they wanted to annex northern England and force everyone into slavery would you just allow them if they threatened with nukes enough ?

Just allowing Ukraine to fall to Russia will also make smaller nations develop their own nuclear weapons programme if they feel a nuclear country will invade them and no one has their back . If more countries have nukes the likelihood of a country using then also increases

You cannot bow to that mindset . If getting what russia wants is their vision of peace , I don’t want to live under their “peace”
 
After todays 50 + deaths I would show Russia that we have the will to survive and end the Kursh bridge once and for all, Very easy to state not as easy to achieve.
 
Defender 4x4 said:
After todays 50 + deaths I would show Russia that we have the will to survive and end the Kursh bridge once and for all, Very easy to state not as easy to achieve.
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Well, we (UK) are involved almost as sneakily as the sneaks. They will get payback. But they will get payback on military targets. Do not underestimate the fact that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been forced to leave Sevastopol. The Royal Navy will arrive in the Black Sea soon... and our sneaky forces will unleash all sorts very soon too.
 
Ukraine needs to have an immediate response to this horrendous killing of innocent civilians. Putin has again proved he is is a war criminal. The noose cannot come soon enough.
 
Defender 4x4 said:
After todays 50 + deaths I would show Russia that we have the will to survive and end the ILLEGAL bridge once and for all, Very easy to state not as easy to achieve.
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Agreed that Putin/Russia (don't think most Ukrainians think there is a difference) need to lose EVERYTHING taken in Ukraine Moldova and Georgia. Every single inch
Have said a few times I feel Konigsberg needs taking off Russia too - so it's not used as an excuse to cause more bother in it's 'defence'
 
It needs to end.

“And look how the sun shines from under the clouds
There's no gas, no barbed wire, there's no guns firing now
But here in this graveyard it's still No Man's Land
The countless white crosses stand mute in the sand
To man's blind indifference to his fellow man
To a whole generation that were butchered and damned.
Ah young Willie McBride, I can't help wonder why
Do those that lie here know why did they die?
And did they believe when they answered the cause
Did they really believe that this war would end wars?
Well the sorrow, the suffering, the glory, the pain
The killing and dying, were all done in vain
For young Willie McBride, it all happened again
And again, and again, and again, and again”

It needs to end now.
 
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