The end?

I'm getting plenty from our fella, but I can't put very much here because ... well, because.

anyway, stuff I can

The attacks here by the Free Russia Legion is still ongoing, but will most likaly calm down after the weekend as per usual.
The attacks was more powerful than before due to quite a few old Wagnerites having signed up to eek out revenge on Russia for the treatment they got.
The Legion is now at around Battalion strength and will increase by about 20 percent more as and when the last batch of Wagnerites have cleared the Ukrainian security control.

Here Ukraine has increased the artillery expenditure against ammo dumps and artillery systems.
Also the ever popular air defences are getting "massaged".

Since Putin refuses to move these forces out to reinforce in the South, something that was Ukraines prefered option that they do.
It has been judged that it is high time to degrade them in situ, instead of degrading them down south.

It also keeps the scheming rodent Syrskyi occupied if he has to do some actual work and "be offensive" by borstjing some Russians, no need for real offensive work so he is getting to degrade sitting on his ****.

The ever popular Russian Vacation & Spa Village of Bakhmut has now seen development on the Northern side again.
This is mainly caused by Russia having thinned out the line here to defend down south.
No new resources have been allocated, so Ukraine is now more or less falling into a void.

Russia is trying to build a direct and improved railroad from Rostov-on-Don into Mariupol, basically hugging the coast, or as near to it as they can come.
We have been aware of this for quite a few weeks since they started.
They are building it pretty fast due to them being desperate for improved rail logistics.
As I see it they are just feeding me new yummy bridges for my sexual bridge destruction fetish.
That is one railroad that will never be serviceable, it is in eminent strike range for the GLSDBs.

Tokmak Axis
Over here Ol******* is pushing into both Verbove and Novoprokopivka at a slow but steady pace.
At the same time he is pushing southwards into the gap between the villages.
From there he is following the road between Verbove and Solodka Balka and Ilchenkove.

The Russian resistance is classified by Ol****** as "lighter than previously".
Also, the diminished amount of mines is making things easier for him.
The last part makes it easier for him to use heavier equipment.

The Mayor of Melitopol is complaining about an influx of Russian soldiers in stolen civilian clothes that have meandered into town trying to go back home to Russia.
Seems like they are very impressed with the Putin Order and not getting any reinforcements.

There are also signs now that Russia is ready to step back to the Ocheretuvate - Tokmak Line that has been prepaired.
The VDV Division that previously tried to do flank attacks from East and West to try and cut the salient have now been withdrawn here.
Same goes for the VDV and regular army units that was holding behind Verbove and Novoprokopivka and Solodka Balka.

Obviously there are still forces here, but they are now mostly mobiks of expandable nature.
If these retreat continues we will see significant breakdown within a week.
But, do not be fooled as and when that happen, Russia has a final defence line between Ocheretuvate - Tokmak, so it will not be the definitive breakthrough and a mad dash for the Sea.

The Armenians are trying to flee Nagorno-Karabach, but the Azeri forces are shelling the road.
So far more than 125 Armenians have been killed along the road.
This is obviously causing a lot of rejoicing in Azerbaijan, Israel and Turkey.
I still do not understand why Israel is supporting this genocide.

The Putin Order
In a war it is important to have an over-arcing gameplan with the goals that you wish to achieve.
Upon this you attach actual battleplans for invidividual sectors, but being careful that you different sectors pull in the same direction, and help each other out in achieving the gameplan.

The gameplan is the more rigid part, unless things is going spectacularly bad you do not change much here.
After all it contains the steps necessary to win the war.
The initial Russian gameplan stated take Kyiv, create a landbridge from Crimea to Donetsk, take Kharkiv, move onwards and take Odesa from the Sea, and after that seize and hold all of Ukraine.

Obviously the gameplan was garbage and unachievable in reality.
But, if Russia had deployed 50 percent more resources... different story really.

The main problem was that they had not wargamed the individual steps properly.
If they had done that they would have set up a less ambitious gameplan.
Problem is as per usual that Russia was not willing to put in the effort of wargaming the different battleplans that was the result of the gameplan.

Russia set the gameplan, and then tried to force it downwards into the army without input from below on what was feasible.
A true gameplan is set based on what is achievable.

Ukraine on the other hand has had a very good gameplan, and it was the entire way based on what was achievable as a series of parallell battleplans.
Ukraine is more doing an organic tapestry of of individual battleplans supporting the gameplan, and that are ever changing according to what the current needs and opportunities are on the battlefield.

In other words, they are very light on their feet and change plans almost daily at times.
This creates constant pressure where the gameplan so requires, and when Russia makes mistakes they rapidly switches around their plans and can attack very fast.

Note how Ukraine is strictly holding onto the gameplan with their Southern Offensive while grinding in many places, and as opportunity arrives pushes forward in all sorts of bewildering places if it is furthering the gameplan, and some of those places pushed is advancing positions that will be useful in other upcoming offensives up to a year away.

Let us state that Ukraine want to take Luhansk City Next fall, just an example.
Taking a key height North of Kreminna now, would potentially support an upcoming push to take key road 6 months later, that in turn would open up access towards Luhansk 9 months into the future.

Now, let us ponder the Putin Order.
It is de facto the current Russian gameplan.
1. Stop the offensive in the South.
2. Take a large City (with a blooming list of suggested cities to take).
3. Do not move troops away from Luhansk.

It is childlike in its lack of detail and longterm clarity.
Also, it is blocking the achievability of its own inherent goals.
Without moving troops down South they can't stop the current Ukrainian advance in the South.
Without moving troops they can only attack towards Kharkiv on the list of suggested cities to take.
Taking Kharkiv would require nearly 1 million men to take by now, it is the heaviest fortified city on the planet by now.
This obviously leaves taking a smaller city or town as the only viable option, and that is pretty much beyond them since they already tried that and lost as they broke out of the Kreminna bulge.

You see how point 3 effectively kills point 1 and 2.
And even without 3 they would not be able to take a larger city, probably a few villages at best.
Or, they could defend the landbridge from being cut for 6 months.

Anyway, my point is that it is hard to come up with a gameplan more destructive than the Putin Order.
It gives no solutions to any of Russias problems, and it hinders even short term goals and battleplans, and completely lack anything resembling a plan of how to longterm stabilise things and perhaps give a victory in the deep future.
It's utterly pathetic and childlike.
And the Ukrainian MOD is very happy about it."
Some shortened frontline stuff

"The 7th and 76th VDV Brigades are pulling into Tokmak now.
They are reportedly in a bloody mess, and the photo's seem to substantiate this.
About half of them got out, and they that half have half of their equipment with them.

Two entire brigades worth of Ukrainian artillery are just pouring it into the last strongpoints that Russia have in Novoprokopivka, the line infront of Solodka Balka, and the area between Solodka Balka and Tokmak.

The Russian forces in Verbove are locked down under constant shelling, and no additional units are left in the vicinity as the Russians in this area races for Ocheretuvate.

Due to the mines, even though there are less of them here, Ukraine can't push forward at speed.
It will therefore probably take up to two weeks to take advantage of the ongoing withdrawal.

Ocheretuvate - Tokmak Line
Ukraine will have to move in here cautiously and first work on removing Russian artillery and short range air defence systems prior to eradicating the supply dumps, command posts, and other heavy equipment.
Expect Ukraine to stand off 2km or more for weeks here as they let the artillery maul the defence line and both fortresses.

It is finally time for the main course in the offensive, expect it to take 3 or more months in total to break through.
That is counting on Russia actually being able to reinforce the line, if not the time will be cut in half realistically."


"The reason that Russia did at counter-offensive in Marinka was that we had entered the town.
First we crossed across the small landbridge from the N15 that we controlled up to Marinka and then attacked the Northern Side of Marinka along the Vul Ivana Franka Road, or as I call it due to a translation mistake "Vulvana Road".
We are now holding everything here up to the Western of the two Northbound Krasnohorivka Roads from Marinka.

Having control of the 00510 road and the N15 made it possible to attack the southern side from where the 00510 changes name to Kashtanova Street, directly from N15 up the 00532 where it changes name to Druzhby Avenue.
The Druzhby Avenue on the other side of Marinka beceome the Eastern Road to Krasnohorivka.

By punching through via 00510 and 00532 we could attack the Russian lines both from the front and behind.
We now hold the entire area inside of those two road.

On the Northern side we now hold about 10 percent, and about 30 percent on the Southern side.
Taking the approach on the N15 3 months ago was crucial for this part of the gameplan.
This is also why we hit Pisky from the Andrivka side towards the airfield.
This sucked in units from Marinka to bolster the defenses there.

After successfully starting to push in Novodonetske again, and degrading Novomaiorske and Pavlivka (again), we crossed the River between Novodonetske and Novomaiorske, and between Novomaiorske and Pavlivka.
This was made possible by Russian artillery being suppressed to the point of breaking.

Scale Part XXXX
This sounds like we are all in now.
No, the scale of the 1st CAA is such that we are deploying about 10 percent of the forces available offensively.
More and they would just trample on their toes on these comparatively small areas.
Another 10 percent are securing the lines.

So, we can amply rotate every 5 days, and still have an operation reserve of 10 percent of the offensive parts of the army.
Half is offensive, the rest is drone operator brigades, air brigade, air defence brigades, artillery divisions, logistics, and so on and so forth...
It is currently the largest circus on the planet.

I think that you are now seeing why I have been harping on the importance of taking the access points to roads?
With those at hand we are free to do so many interesting things during Rasputitsa."
this landed just now.

"Today I am going to give you a letter written by a Ukrainian general.
He wanted to be a poet, but he became a soldier so that his son could become a painter and art curator.
Oleksandr wrote a letter to NAFO, and eveyone else who is openly supporting Ukraine around the globe, and then his son published it.

I want to thank everyone who stands with Ukraine and for freedom.
And I'd like to say a few things.

Firstly, I do understand how difficult standing up to russia and its propaganda online can be for many of you, and the sacrifices you make, on many, many levels.
There's the sacrifice of time and money, of course, but there's a greater, more personal sacrifice as well - the sacrifice of meeting the utter lunacy of russian trolls and propagandists every day, and the courage and heroism of going against them - of going against what is sometimes sheer illogic and insanity... and of making sure that sanity prevails.
And that's what we do, my fellow warriors - we fight to ensure that sanity prevails - and that the children of the future will live in a safer world.

And I know how difficult things may sometimes be for each of you, and I just wanted to say...
Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters - things aren't always as dark as they seem. We're walking through a long, dark tunnel, and it seems that all the very worst instincts of humanity are doing their best to conquer us - but they will not.
For the simple reason that we're better men and women than they are, and we have better reasons for fighting on. --- For those who meet russian propaganda every day...
Remember that it's very important that you take a break from things sometimes, to relax, to unwind, and perhaps, for a few hours, to just forget.
No one can fight continuously - remember that even the soldiers fighting on the front line are rotated out regularly (well, those on our side, at least) else they wouldn't be able to keep fighting.

Most of all, as I said, things aren't actually as dark as they appear sometimes.
Imagine how dark things appeared to the brave lads on the first morning of the invasion, when they went out into the cold, black dawn to stand against russia.
They didn't know that they would break the back of russia's armored legions and make russia the laughing stock of the whole world.
They didn't know that they would win - or even that they could win.
But they went out into that cold morning to stand against russia anyway.
And they broke the back of russia's armies.
And that's courage - to make a stand, when you don't know where that stand will lead, but to make the stand anyway, because it's the right thing to do - because, being human, one must do it, or sacrifice one's humanity.

And that's what this war is about, strangely enough.
It's not really about language, or territory, or religion, or politics - those are just russia's excuses.
No, this is a war of values.
Freedom against slavery.
Democracy against dictatorships.
The right to speak against the necessity to remain forever silent.

The ability of free people to feel for those in need, for those oppressed, for the little children in danger... stacked against the ability of the people of a dictatorship or an empire to close their eyes to and turn their backs on suffering.
It's a war of ideas and values.
And we WILL win it, my brothers and sisters.
Because in a war of ideas, the real strength lies in the ideas themselves.
Keep the faith.
And thank you, every one of you, for being good and wonderful human beings whom I admire, and who inspire me in turn - every single day.
Slava Ukraini!

Your humanity give us courage!"
Most of all, as I said, things aren't actually as dark as they appear sometimes.
Imagine how dark things appeared to the brave lads on the first morning of the invasion, when they went out into the cold, black dawn to stand against russia.
They didn't know that they would break the back of russia's armored legions and make russia the laughing stock of the whole world.
They didn't know that they would win - or even that they could win.
Teenagers, Trainers & Skaterpads and AK47's and they still went

Slava Ukraini! Glory to the heroes

Teenagers, Trainers & Skaterpads and AK47's and they still went

Slava Ukraini! Glory to the heroes

That's so sad, my eldest daughter is 15 and they are only a few years older than her!
That photo was from a year and A half ago, I really hope those 4 young heroes survived and can eventually recover mentally enough to live a full happy life and have kids of there own.
Sorry for lack of updates. Too much opsec stuff. This from this evening though.

"Let us begin with the good news, and some frontline things.

Ukraine has achieved a powerful breakthrough South of Bakhmut from the Klichi'ivka Salient in the direction of Opytne and Bakhmut.
First they took key positions and fortifications, then they took several forrest lines with trenches in these direction and advanced up to 2 kilometres in both directions.

This has put Opytne under heavy artillery control, and increased the artillery control of the T0513 road that goes through Opytne further straining supply and logistics in the region.
It also means that no Ukraine can fire on Bakhmut itself from two directions, and that if the offensive here continues that they can perform an attack both from the south and the west sides.

We are now definitely in the grind stage with only minor advances.
So, not anything really fun to report.
We might be stuck like this up to a week before we can cheaply perform the next push.
Especially since we will rotate troops tomorrow and the day after, and that is tricky while still being embroiled in a battle.

Both me and **** is pretty stern on the rotation every 5 days since it keeps the troops fresh and perky and make it easier to keep up a nice steady pressure over a long time period.

Ol****r was chirpy when I talked to him this morning and thanked him for the letter he had penned to all the supporters of Ukraine.
He is slowly grinding away over at Novoprokopivka steadily but slowly taking ground.
Over at Verbove he is busily rotating troops before the next big push.
He is also a believer in rotating often, and he will definitely in the end need to conserve the energy of his troops.
After all, taking everything up to the Tokmak - Ochertuvate Line (TOL) was just the first part, the TOL itself will be much harder and blodier.

In all honesty, he himself should soon be rotated out, at least when he has made contact with the TOL itself.
But, general situation in Ukraine is what it is, he is putting up a brave face, but I know he is in a lot of pain now.

There is now a heck of alot of talk in Russian chanels about the upcoming amphibeous invasion of Crimea.
Lot of angry voices are yelling about the impossibility to hold back an amphibeous landing with the available troops, especially since they have been further depleted now as the Air Force and Navy is pulling out.
And they are none to happy about the general lack of air defence.

They are angry especially about the Putin Order and the effects it is having on the defence down south, and the impossibility of performing a credible offensive up North."

Now I paraphrase the bad news.
Daily death toll today in his theatre was above 50, so way above the usual 20 (this is a 20,000 strong army).

He suspects that Surovikin may be back at the helm. Russians making astute tactical and strategic decisions all of a sudden.
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Ok, some updates in brief.
South of Donetsk city Ukrainian forces are moving along that outer ring road and have the Petrovsky district under fiore control and are threatening the big spaghetti junction and the H20 Mariupol road.
Headway is being made slowly all along the southern fron, from Vuhledar towards Tokmak.
The Ukrainians have crossed the railway lines south of Bakhmut and have the south of the city under fire control. They are not far from cutting all the southern supply routes into Bakhmut.
The Russian Freedom fighter mob are making repeated raids across the border, which is now more or less devoid of border guards.
It's now thought that the Russian army amassed in Luhansk is not there as an offensive force but as a defence for Moscow ... both against any Ukrainian incursion or, more pertinently, any wannbe Prigozhin types.

Finally, this, rather dark posting this morning.

"We are seeing preparations in Murmansk of what we interpret as Russia getting ready to perform a nuclear launch.
They have built a new launch site, and there's also preparatory work being done in Novaja Zemlja (arctic).
This also corroborates with physical intel from Russia.

We have good reason to believe that this will be a second test launch of their boonfangled idiotic nuclear powered cruise missile nuclear bomb delivery vehicle.
They tried this lunacy a year ago and it failed miserably and iradiated quite an area.
Now they want to try it again, but this time they are seemingly sticking a nuke into the launch vehicle.

The idea of making a nuclear powered missile was already a thing in the 60s, but the US ditched it since the effect of having a nuclear missile was horrendous to say the least.
You will irradiate everything from the launch site over to the target.

The reason for this is that the reactor must be without shielding due to the weight restrictions.
This is why the US, The Soviet Union, and everyone else and the cat scrapped the idea already back then, and in the 60s nuclear safety was truly not a thing...
But, modern Russia is made out of far stupider stuff.

I do not think it will work this time either.
The reaason is the lack of shielding, that makes it impossible to use electronics (unless you shield those with whale load of lead or boron, so the targeting is done with a mechanical instrument.
On top of the you have to shield the electronics of the nuclear bomb that is attached from the radiation of the reactor in the launch vehicle.
Yes, the bomb electronics are shielded from the bombs radiation, but this means that they are outside of the bombs shielding...

In the last test the launch vehicle flew a shortish distance, and then hit the water and broke up, causing a nuclear reactor to sink into the Arctic Ocean.
I am fairly certain that this will happen again, but probably a bit further away, and this time with a nuclear bomb chucked in just for funzies.

The only good part with using a nuclear powered missile is that it has almost infinite range.
The drawback is that anyone handling the missile will die from radiation sickness.

Russia has overused the nuclear threats during the war.
For every lost village and new weapon going to Ukraine we have Medvedev or someone else threatening to use nukes.
It has by now completely turned into a "So, again?".
There is also the not so small thing that the large majority of Russian nukes are non-functional due to neglected maintenance, same goes for their large ballistic intercontinental missiles.

This is why Russia is now desperate enough to attempt to break The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-ban Treaty.
A treaty that they themselves was no small part in creating.

To achieve the political goal of reminding everyone that they have nukes and that they are willing to use them would have been better served by just dropping one from a bomber, or by launching a conventional missile.

But, Russia is trying to over-achieve here by using a new "Wunderwaffe" as a delivery mechanism.
And, I think that will come to bite them in the **** and that the entire thing fail and everyone will laugh at them.

So, if you are into watching Flightradar24 or something similar, this is why you are seeing constant NATO signal intelligence planes in the Arctic Ocean to monitor what happens.

Russian stupidity is reaching new levels as they attempt to do things that even the Soviet Union found to be way to stupid.
Also, remember here that the Soviet nuclear program was led by Zakharov, a true genius in the field.
Russia now does not even have enough normal brains to pull it off, note that all of their new weapons are failures or so badly constructed that they can't fulfill what they promise.

I seriously doubt that Russia has the skillset to invent a mechanical target control computer, nor the skillset to build it so that it works.
I would even go so far as to say that Russia no longer have the industrial skillset to newbuild new nuclear bombs."

So, remember this as the news about the upcoming nuclear test hit the news cycle.
And... even if they would pull off the miracle and make a successful test, it does not change anything.
All they proved is that they are stupid then."