The end?

There have been a lot of updates, but not many that I could post. This, I can.


"Things are picking up pace again in many places around Ukraine.
So, let us debone those now that I can talk about it.

Kursk
The drone bombardment continued for the third day in a row.
Powerplants, civilian administration, and the military airfield was hit.
The City of Kursk and parts of the Oblast is now in darkness.

Previously the airfield was hit, first day was against the airplanes, second day was the fuel depot, and yesterday the barracks and officers quarters was targeted.
Russian sources are filled with condolences for officers and pilots that died.

During this period there was also intense border attacks and raids performed by the Free Russia Corps.
To inspire his fellow Kurskians the mayor of Kursk cancelled the "Kursk Day" and the fireworks show.
Que the Sad Kursk Noises.

Luhansk
Here Ukraine performed deep strikes at ammunition depots and command centers in the rear of Luhansk towards the Russian border.
This area was previously only reachable by Stormshadow missiles, but those are to pricey to use for lesser targets like this.
But, now the GLSDBs have arrived and the entire deep rear of Donbas is open for strikes.

Bakhmut
Ukraine sent in a heavy Brigade to reinforce south of Bakhmut to sustain the pace of the advance into the rear, and to force Russia to send in additional units.

Mar'inka
The 2nd Battalion of the 21st together with a company of tanks from the 2nd Tank Army Group met the Russians head on at Mari'nka and beat them back into the town border.
Almost a full kilometer of ground was gained and is now being demined.
In the Pavlivka direction we have increased the amount of shelling substantially.

Tokmak Axis
48 hours ago Oleksandr launched the artillery he had amassed near both Novoprokopivka and Verbove and started to methodically crush anything in the villages, behind the rolling wave of fire came infantry and heavy equipment clattering.

For weeks he had been bringing in reinforcements to take advantage of the not so small fact that Russia is not willing to reinforce enough to hold the line against a big push due to the "Putin Order".
This meant that the time was ripe to start collapsing the frontlines.

The goal is to rapidly take the villages and push down towards both Tokmak and Ocheretuvate in two weeks from now.
This is the big offensive that was announced a week ago by Zelenzkyy.
In support of this offensive we are also going to make a push to lock down as much force as we can on our part of the frontline, the same goes for Bakhmut and around Avdivka north of Donetsk City.

Conclusion
I am certain that either Russia will have the frontline broken, or at least be pushed back significantly, unless Russia moves significant forces from Luhansk.
If they do the latter something interesting will happen of course.

Note that this happened on the back of Ukraine receiving a significant new resource in form of the GLSDB.
Due to this Ukraine can strike deep in the rear and demolish stores and units on their entire travel to reinforce making the relief troops exhausted and degraded upon arrival.
Those extra 90km of a GLSDB compared to the GMLRS will make a huge difference in Russian manouvre space and in Russian logistics.
This will excarbate the Russian shell hunger further.

Shells
And this reminded me.
Ukraine blew up the factory producing explosives for their remaining shell production plant.
This meant that the factory did not receive any brisant charge high explosived to fill the shells.
Any normal person would at that point either stop producing shell casings, or continue production and store the casings for a rainy day or for when explosives production can resume.

But, Russia is not normal in any way, sort, or form.
They continued producing the shells, albeit empty.
They then delivered them with detonators and all to the frontline units.
There are many videos now of artillerymen complaining mightily on said empty shells.
I bet there is a new superyacht being ordered for the money that someone in Russia pocketed due to this scheme.

Some people wrote that the Russians should continue firing the empty shells since they would kill someone if they hit that someone.
Problem is that the shells are more prone to deform without the internal support, and could more easily get logged in the barrels.
On top of that the ballance is gone for the shell so it would tumble in the air, and the precission would just be utterly gone.
Only in Russia..."
The most worrying thing in that report is the statement ‘but Russia is not normal in any way, sort or form.’

Hard to deal with an entity like that.
 
But quietly, without any sort of fanfare, Putin and the leadership really have become Russia's weakness, not strength. This is important in the long run. They seem unwilling to accept reality. It is costing lives, but, mainly Russian military lives and Russian military infrastructure. In the last week, Ukraine has cleared Crimea of air defence, blown up the pride of the Russian Navy, the Black Sea Fleet (boats, subs, HQ and Admiralty), cleared airfields. Today attacked the base that launches drones. They've degraded logistics across the board, taken out refineries (hence fuel shortage) , explosive factories (hence empty shells) and hit the only bearings factory in Russia (engineers will tell you how much that hurts). Meanwhile, Russia has blown up civilian targets, a bit of inrastructure, a Russian owned tower block, grain stores, carpet transporters and almost my mate's apartment (don't make him mad.... you wouldn'tlike it when... oh, you know). So, the point I am making, is that the fact that they are not normal will be their downfall. If it isn't in this post I will post the demands that Putin gave to Shoigu.
 
here it is

"I will write this with the backdrop of the story about Puting having ordered Soyghurt to achieve the following until the beginning of October.
1. Break the Ukrainian offensive in the South, or at least stop it from evolving any further.
2. Prepare for a large offensive to take a large Ukrainian City like for Instance Kharkiv, Kherson City, Zhaporizhzhia City or Nikopol.
And yes, these are really the cities that Putin gave Shoigu the choice to pick one from for his offensive.

Note here what I have written in the last week about the reality of what is happening.
Russia sort of demilitarising Crimea, not moving any troops from Luhansk, or at least not enough to make any difference, and them mostly reinforcing in Armenia.

Also, please ponder how time has elapsed with nothing happening on the Russian side, and how nothing of what Putin ordered seems to come into fruition."
 
Things really not going well for Russia, with the war or economically.

Them kicking off almost two years ago provided an energy price hike, which helped them fund all of this and made up for economical losses from sanctions etc, but now the world has adapted to find other energy sources, there will be no more energy price hikes to help them. Economically I think things are getting worse and worse too, they must be absolutely burning through money they don't even have. I would be whoever is still getting oil and gas from them isn't paying the market rates like we're paying Qatar or whoever also.

All of this will really be ******* off the big boys, with big personal wealth in Russia too, so the longer it goes on, the more and more people will be after bad vlad.
 
Things really not going well for Russia, with the war or economically.

Them kicking off almost two years ago provided an energy price hike, which helped them fund all of this and made up for economical losses from sanctions etc, but now the world has adapted to find other energy sources, there will be no more energy price hikes to help them. Economically I think things are getting worse and worse too, they must be absolutely burning through money they don't even have. I would be whoever is still getting oil and gas from them isn't paying the market rates like we're paying Qatar or whoever also.

All of this will really be ******* off the big boys, with big personal wealth in Russia too, so the longer it goes on, the more and more people will be after bad vlad.
Most of them completely brainwashed that's the problem.
Could we send them the daily mail ?
 
Most of them completely brainwashed that's the problem.
Could we send them the daily mail ?
Doesn't matter how brainwashed they are though really, that only really works short term. When it's financial, reality will materialise more and more and override everything when it all collapses, which it will if they keep going.

The way I see it is it's not like they can hike up a load of debt either, as nobody will lend to them, so if anything they will need to clear the debt due to poor ratings. This likely means public services (or any services) getting cut even more than they probably already have done for the last couple of years. The place is living a lie it can't afford.
 
Anyone see the powerful Newsnight feature last night? Very moving closing scene featured sister of killed Ukrainian soldier - when asked about ending the war stated "I just want all Russians dead".
 
Anyone see the powerful Newsnight feature last night? Very moving closing scene featured sister of killed Ukrainian soldier - when asked about ending the war stated "I just want all Russions dead".
Didn't see it. There's palpable anger among ordinary Ukrainians. The death toll has been sickening. The fact that Russia's is higher doesn't really help.
 
I'm getting plenty from our fella, but I can't put very much here because ... well, because.

anyway, stuff I can

"Kursk
The attacks here by the Free Russia Legion is still ongoing, but will most likaly calm down after the weekend as per usual.
The attacks was more powerful than before due to quite a few old Wagnerites having signed up to eek out revenge on Russia for the treatment they got.
The Legion is now at around Battalion strength and will increase by about 20 percent more as and when the last batch of Wagnerites have cleared the Ukrainian security control.

Kreminna
Here Ukraine has increased the artillery expenditure against ammo dumps and artillery systems.
Also the ever popular air defences are getting "massaged".

Since Putin refuses to move these forces out to reinforce in the South, something that was Ukraines prefered option that they do.
It has been judged that it is high time to degrade them in situ, instead of degrading them down south.

It also keeps the scheming rodent Syrskyi occupied if he has to do some actual work and "be offensive" by borstjing some Russians, no need for real offensive work so he is getting to degrade sitting on his ****.

Bakhmut
The ever popular Russian Vacation & Spa Village of Bakhmut has now seen development on the Northern side again.
This is mainly caused by Russia having thinned out the line here to defend down south.
No new resources have been allocated, so Ukraine is now more or less falling into a void.

Russia is trying to build a direct and improved railroad from Rostov-on-Don into Mariupol, basically hugging the coast, or as near to it as they can come.
We have been aware of this for quite a few weeks since they started.
They are building it pretty fast due to them being desperate for improved rail logistics.
As I see it they are just feeding me new yummy bridges for my sexual bridge destruction fetish.
That is one railroad that will never be serviceable, it is in eminent strike range for the GLSDBs.

Tokmak Axis
Over here Ol******* is pushing into both Verbove and Novoprokopivka at a slow but steady pace.
At the same time he is pushing southwards into the gap between the villages.
From there he is following the road between Verbove and Solodka Balka and Ilchenkove.

The Russian resistance is classified by Ol****** as "lighter than previously".
Also, the diminished amount of mines is making things easier for him.
The last part makes it easier for him to use heavier equipment.

The Mayor of Melitopol is complaining about an influx of Russian soldiers in stolen civilian clothes that have meandered into town trying to go back home to Russia.
Seems like they are very impressed with the Putin Order and not getting any reinforcements.

There are also signs now that Russia is ready to step back to the Ocheretuvate - Tokmak Line that has been prepaired.
The VDV Division that previously tried to do flank attacks from East and West to try and cut the salient have now been withdrawn here.
Same goes for the VDV and regular army units that was holding behind Verbove and Novoprokopivka and Solodka Balka.

Obviously there are still forces here, but they are now mostly mobiks of expandable nature.
If these retreat continues we will see significant breakdown within a week.
But, do not be fooled as and when that happen, Russia has a final defence line between Ocheretuvate - Tokmak, so it will not be the definitive breakthrough and a mad dash for the Sea.

Armenia
The Armenians are trying to flee Nagorno-Karabach, but the Azeri forces are shelling the road.
So far more than 125 Armenians have been killed along the road.
This is obviously causing a lot of rejoicing in Azerbaijan, Israel and Turkey.
I still do not understand why Israel is supporting this genocide.

The Putin Order
In a war it is important to have an over-arcing gameplan with the goals that you wish to achieve.
Upon this you attach actual battleplans for invidividual sectors, but being careful that you different sectors pull in the same direction, and help each other out in achieving the gameplan.

The gameplan is the more rigid part, unless things is going spectacularly bad you do not change much here.
After all it contains the steps necessary to win the war.
The initial Russian gameplan stated take Kyiv, create a landbridge from Crimea to Donetsk, take Kharkiv, move onwards and take Odesa from the Sea, and after that seize and hold all of Ukraine.

Obviously the gameplan was garbage and unachievable in reality.
But, if Russia had deployed 50 percent more resources... different story really.

The main problem was that they had not wargamed the individual steps properly.
If they had done that they would have set up a less ambitious gameplan.
Problem is as per usual that Russia was not willing to put in the effort of wargaming the different battleplans that was the result of the gameplan.

Russia set the gameplan, and then tried to force it downwards into the army without input from below on what was feasible.
A true gameplan is set based on what is achievable.

Ukraine on the other hand has had a very good gameplan, and it was the entire way based on what was achievable as a series of parallell battleplans.
Ukraine is more doing an organic tapestry of of individual battleplans supporting the gameplan, and that are ever changing according to what the current needs and opportunities are on the battlefield.

In other words, they are very light on their feet and change plans almost daily at times.
This creates constant pressure where the gameplan so requires, and when Russia makes mistakes they rapidly switches around their plans and can attack very fast.

Note how Ukraine is strictly holding onto the gameplan with their Southern Offensive while grinding in many places, and as opportunity arrives pushes forward in all sorts of bewildering places if it is furthering the gameplan, and some of those places pushed is advancing positions that will be useful in other upcoming offensives up to a year away.

Let us state that Ukraine want to take Luhansk City Next fall, just an example.
Taking a key height North of Kreminna now, would potentially support an upcoming push to take key road 6 months later, that in turn would open up access towards Luhansk 9 months into the future.

Now, let us ponder the Putin Order.
It is de facto the current Russian gameplan.
1. Stop the offensive in the South.
2. Take a large City (with a blooming list of suggested cities to take).
3. Do not move troops away from Luhansk.

It is childlike in its lack of detail and longterm clarity.
Also, it is blocking the achievability of its own inherent goals.
Without moving troops down South they can't stop the current Ukrainian advance in the South.
Without moving troops they can only attack towards Kharkiv on the list of suggested cities to take.
Taking Kharkiv would require nearly 1 million men to take by now, it is the heaviest fortified city on the planet by now.
This obviously leaves taking a smaller city or town as the only viable option, and that is pretty much beyond them since they already tried that and lost as they broke out of the Kreminna bulge.

You see how point 3 effectively kills point 1 and 2.
And even without 3 they would not be able to take a larger city, probably a few villages at best.
Or, they could defend the landbridge from being cut for 6 months.

Anyway, my point is that it is hard to come up with a gameplan more destructive than the Putin Order.
It gives no solutions to any of Russias problems, and it hinders even short term goals and battleplans, and completely lack anything resembling a plan of how to longterm stabilise things and perhaps give a victory in the deep future.
It's utterly pathetic and childlike.
And the Ukrainian MOD is very happy about it."
 
Some shortened frontline stuff

"The 7th and 76th VDV Brigades are pulling into Tokmak now.
They are reportedly in a bloody mess, and the photo's seem to substantiate this.
About half of them got out, and they that half have half of their equipment with them.

Two entire brigades worth of Ukrainian artillery are just pouring it into the last strongpoints that Russia have in Novoprokopivka, the line infront of Solodka Balka, and the area between Solodka Balka and Tokmak.

The Russian forces in Verbove are locked down under constant shelling, and no additional units are left in the vicinity as the Russians in this area races for Ocheretuvate.

Due to the mines, even though there are less of them here, Ukraine can't push forward at speed.
It will therefore probably take up to two weeks to take advantage of the ongoing withdrawal.

Ocheretuvate - Tokmak Line
Ukraine will have to move in here cautiously and first work on removing Russian artillery and short range air defence systems prior to eradicating the supply dumps, command posts, and other heavy equipment.
Expect Ukraine to stand off 2km or more for weeks here as they let the artillery maul the defence line and both fortresses.

It is finally time for the main course in the offensive, expect it to take 3 or more months in total to break through.
That is counting on Russia actually being able to reinforce the line, if not the time will be cut in half realistically."

then

"The reason that Russia did at counter-offensive in Marinka was that we had entered the town.
First we crossed across the small landbridge from the N15 that we controlled up to Marinka and then attacked the Northern Side of Marinka along the Vul Ivana Franka Road, or as I call it due to a translation mistake "Vulvana Road".
We are now holding everything here up to the Western of the two Northbound Krasnohorivka Roads from Marinka.

Having control of the 00510 road and the N15 made it possible to attack the southern side from where the 00510 changes name to Kashtanova Street, directly from N15 up the 00532 where it changes name to Druzhby Avenue.
The Druzhby Avenue on the other side of Marinka beceome the Eastern Road to Krasnohorivka.

By punching through via 00510 and 00532 we could attack the Russian lines both from the front and behind.
We now hold the entire area inside of those two road.

On the Northern side we now hold about 10 percent, and about 30 percent on the Southern side.
Taking the approach on the N15 3 months ago was crucial for this part of the gameplan.
This is also why we hit Pisky from the Andrivka side towards the airfield.
This sucked in units from Marinka to bolster the defenses there.

Vuhledar
After successfully starting to push in Novodonetske again, and degrading Novomaiorske and Pavlivka (again), we crossed the River between Novodonetske and Novomaiorske, and between Novomaiorske and Pavlivka.
This was made possible by Russian artillery being suppressed to the point of breaking.

Scale Part XXXX
This sounds like we are all in now.
No, the scale of the 1st CAA is such that we are deploying about 10 percent of the forces available offensively.
More and they would just trample on their toes on these comparatively small areas.
Another 10 percent are securing the lines.

So, we can amply rotate every 5 days, and still have an operation reserve of 10 percent of the offensive parts of the army.
Half is offensive, the rest is drone operator brigades, air brigade, air defence brigades, artillery divisions, logistics, and so on and so forth...
It is currently the largest circus on the planet.

Roads
I think that you are now seeing why I have been harping on the importance of taking the access points to roads?
With those at hand we are free to do so many interesting things during Rasputitsa."
 
this landed just now.

"Today I am going to give you a letter written by a Ukrainian general.
He wanted to be a poet, but he became a soldier so that his son could become a painter and art curator.
Oleksandr wrote a letter to NAFO, and eveyone else who is openly supporting Ukraine around the globe, and then his son published it.


I want to thank everyone who stands with Ukraine and for freedom.
And I'd like to say a few things.


Firstly, I do understand how difficult standing up to russia and its propaganda online can be for many of you, and the sacrifices you make, on many, many levels.
There's the sacrifice of time and money, of course, but there's a greater, more personal sacrifice as well - the sacrifice of meeting the utter lunacy of russian trolls and propagandists every day, and the courage and heroism of going against them - of going against what is sometimes sheer illogic and insanity... and of making sure that sanity prevails.
And that's what we do, my fellow warriors - we fight to ensure that sanity prevails - and that the children of the future will live in a safer world.

And I know how difficult things may sometimes be for each of you, and I just wanted to say...
Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters - things aren't always as dark as they seem. We're walking through a long, dark tunnel, and it seems that all the very worst instincts of humanity are doing their best to conquer us - but they will not.
For the simple reason that we're better men and women than they are, and we have better reasons for fighting on. --- For those who meet russian propaganda every day...
Remember that it's very important that you take a break from things sometimes, to relax, to unwind, and perhaps, for a few hours, to just forget.
No one can fight continuously - remember that even the soldiers fighting on the front line are rotated out regularly (well, those on our side, at least) else they wouldn't be able to keep fighting.

Most of all, as I said, things aren't actually as dark as they appear sometimes.
Imagine how dark things appeared to the brave lads on the first morning of the invasion, when they went out into the cold, black dawn to stand against russia.
They didn't know that they would break the back of russia's armored legions and make russia the laughing stock of the whole world.
They didn't know that they would win - or even that they could win.
But they went out into that cold morning to stand against russia anyway.
And they broke the back of russia's armies.
And that's courage - to make a stand, when you don't know where that stand will lead, but to make the stand anyway, because it's the right thing to do - because, being human, one must do it, or sacrifice one's humanity.

And that's what this war is about, strangely enough.
It's not really about language, or territory, or religion, or politics - those are just russia's excuses.
No, this is a war of values.
Freedom against slavery.
Democracy against dictatorships.
The right to speak against the necessity to remain forever silent.

The ability of free people to feel for those in need, for those oppressed, for the little children in danger... stacked against the ability of the people of a dictatorship or an empire to close their eyes to and turn their backs on suffering.
It's a war of ideas and values.
And we WILL win it, my brothers and sisters.
Because in a war of ideas, the real strength lies in the ideas themselves.
Keep the faith.
And thank you, every one of you, for being good and wonderful human beings whom I admire, and who inspire me in turn - every single day.
Slava Ukraini!

Your humanity give us courage!"
 
Most of all, as I said, things aren't actually as dark as they appear sometimes.
Imagine how dark things appeared to the brave lads on the first morning of the invasion, when they went out into the cold, black dawn to stand against russia.
They didn't know that they would break the back of russia's armored legions and make russia the laughing stock of the whole world.
They didn't know that they would win - or even that they could win.
Teenagers, Trainers & Skaterpads and AK47's and they still went

Slava Ukraini! Glory to the heroes

 
Teenagers, Trainers & Skaterpads and AK47's and they still went

Slava Ukraini! Glory to the heroes

That's so sad, my eldest daughter is 15 and they are only a few years older than her!
That photo was from a year and A half ago, I really hope those 4 young heroes survived and can eventually recover mentally enough to live a full happy life and have kids of there own.
 
Sorry for lack of updates. Too much opsec stuff. This from this evening though.

"Let us begin with the good news, and some frontline things.

Bakhmut
Ukraine has achieved a powerful breakthrough South of Bakhmut from the Klichi'ivka Salient in the direction of Opytne and Bakhmut.
First they took key positions and fortifications, then they took several forrest lines with trenches in these direction and advanced up to 2 kilometres in both directions.

This has put Opytne under heavy artillery control, and increased the artillery control of the T0513 road that goes through Opytne further straining supply and logistics in the region.
It also means that no Ukraine can fire on Bakhmut itself from two directions, and that if the offensive here continues that they can perform an attack both from the south and the west sides.

Vuhledar
We are now definitely in the grind stage with only minor advances.
So, not anything really fun to report.
We might be stuck like this up to a week before we can cheaply perform the next push.
Especially since we will rotate troops tomorrow and the day after, and that is tricky while still being embroiled in a battle.

Both me and **** is pretty stern on the rotation every 5 days since it keeps the troops fresh and perky and make it easier to keep up a nice steady pressure over a long time period.

TOL
Ol****r was chirpy when I talked to him this morning and thanked him for the letter he had penned to all the supporters of Ukraine.
He is slowly grinding away over at Novoprokopivka steadily but slowly taking ground.
Over at Verbove he is busily rotating troops before the next big push.
He is also a believer in rotating often, and he will definitely in the end need to conserve the energy of his troops.
After all, taking everything up to the Tokmak - Ochertuvate Line (TOL) was just the first part, the TOL itself will be much harder and blodier.

In all honesty, he himself should soon be rotated out, at least when he has made contact with the TOL itself.
But, general situation in Ukraine is what it is, he is putting up a brave face, but I know he is in a lot of pain now.

Crimea
There is now a heck of alot of talk in Russian chanels about the upcoming amphibeous invasion of Crimea.
Lot of angry voices are yelling about the impossibility to hold back an amphibeous landing with the available troops, especially since they have been further depleted now as the Air Force and Navy is pulling out.
And they are none to happy about the general lack of air defence.

They are angry especially about the Putin Order and the effects it is having on the defence down south, and the impossibility of performing a credible offensive up North."

Now I paraphrase the bad news.
Daily death toll today in his theatre was above 50, so way above the usual 20 (this is a 20,000 strong army).

He suspects that Surovikin may be back at the helm. Russians making astute tactical and strategic decisions all of a sudden.
 
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