The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66

Well-known member
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...0-extra-deaths-reduced-access-healthcare.html

Evidence coming that lack of access to care is causing 2,700 'excess' deaths a week.

I've been saying this for ages and have been given so much grief as a result can we now at least accept it's a possibility @bear66 and @Billy Horner ?
Yes. There will almost certainly have been deaths due to problems with lack of care. Whitty alluded to this two weeks after lockdown. How many? I don't know, but the majority of non-covid excess deaths were in the first five weeks of the rise in deaths. This will be partially due to people not presenting themselves to hospitals etc., but it was also when there was little testing, particularly in care homes. The restrictions in hospital access /procedures continued after that, but not with the same number of unattributale excess deaths, as you have pointed out over the last three weeks.

I don't doubt there will be major issues in the future with delayed or undetected cancers. Hopefully we never have the situation again where virus sufferers are, to some degree, mixed with the general hospital population and we are prepared for a system of isolation that allows hospitals to operate as close to normal for other procedures.

The analysis of what has gone on will continue, as will the longer term affects on those who have recovered with some degree of bodily organ damage (even a study of asymptomatic sufferers identified the majority of the participants having some degree of defects in the lung(s)).
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 880 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 846
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.2% to 752 per day, following 1.5% increase yesterday (and 14th increase in the past 15 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 12.7% higher than one week ago (from 12.2% higher yesterday) and 23.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 26.0% higher yesterday and 21.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 120 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 38 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 0.7% to 63 per day, following 3.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 0.2% lower than one week ago (from 2.5% higher yesterday) and 24.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 13.9% lower yesterday and 14.6% lower 7 days ago)
 

bear66

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 880 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 846
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.2% to 752 per day, following 1.5% increase yesterday (and 14th increase in the past 15 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 12.7% higher than one week ago (from 12.2% higher yesterday) and 23.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 26.0% higher yesterday and 21.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 120 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 38 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 0.7% to 63 per day, following 3.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 0.2% lower than one week ago (from 2.5% higher yesterday) and 24.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 13.9% lower yesterday and 14.6% lower 7 days ago)
Is the "24.2% lower . . " right?
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Is the "24.2% lower . . " right?
Yes, although that will probably change markedly tomorrow. The 7-day average for new deaths fell by 18.5% between the 16th and 17th of July, from 83 to 68. Since then, it's been stuck in the 60s.

So, from tomorrow, we will be comparing with numbers in the 60s from two weeks ago, rather than numbers in the 80s. Like I've said previously, I would describe the 7-day average for deaths as plateauing at the moment.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
How many? I don't know, but the majority of non-covid excess deaths were in the first five weeks of the rise in deaths. This will be partially due to people not presenting themselves to hospitals etc., but it was also when there was little testing, particularly in care homes. The restrictions in hospital access /procedures continued after that, but not with the same number of unattributale excess deaths, as you have pointed out over the last three weeks.
My worry is that we would be tracking another 700-1000 deaths under excess deaths now if we had full access to care back.

I genuinely think we're at this point really over counting covid deaths and not putting enough focus on our care services to try and get back to normal.

The covid 'number' is thus acting as a distraction and in a loop you could start seeing excess deaths again but as a result of care access that may be incorrectly attributed to covid (if any of that ramble makes sense).

I want to stress again that for me I really don't want to downplay anything just that we have to look at the fact this may be happening to avoid catastrophe down the way.
 

bear66

Well-known member
My worry is that we would be tracking another 700-1000 deaths under excess deaths now if we had full access to care back.

I genuinely think we're at this point really over counting covid deaths and not putting enough focus on our care services to try and get back to normal.

The covid 'number' is thus acting as a distraction and in a loop you could start seeing excess deaths again but as a result of care access that may be incorrectly attributed to covid (if any of that ramble makes sense).

I want to stress again that for me I really don't want to downplay anything just that we have to look at the fact this may be happening to avoid catastrophe down the way.
Scotland, Northern Ireland (and many other countries) simply put a 28 day period between test and date of death and discounted any longer. Not perfect, but I don't understand why England couldn't do the same and revise the figures accordingly.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
Scotland, Northern Ireland (and many other countries) simply put a 28 day period between test and date of death and discounted any longer. Not perfect, but I don't understand why England couldn't do the same and revise the figures accordingly.
Again I'm not talking about reporting I'm talking about incorrect labelling at point of death.

We have so few deaths with positive test vs diagnosed and even those with positive test a substantial % will be a contributing factor not the actual cause.

It's going to cost so many more lives and livelihoods I'm just tired and gutted you can't see it.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Again I'm not talking about reporting I'm talking about incorrect labelling at point of death.

We have so few deaths with positive test vs diagnosed and even those with positive test a substantial % will be a contributing factor not the actual cause.

It's going to cost so many more lives and livelihoods I'm just tired and gutted you can't see it.
Every death reported daily is based on a positive test. These are the vast majority of all deaths:

Those with a positive test : 46119
(Hospital only before 29 April, all settings after, so an underestimate of all deaths following a positive test)
ONS death certificates: 51264
ONS excess deaths wk 13 to 29: 58000

This is a horrible disease that affects lungs, heart, brain and kidneys with even asymptomattic cases reported to have scarring of lungs. (One study has the majority of asymptomatic cases with lung imperfections.) It will be decades before we see the long term consequences.

I don't disagree that our handling has been a disaster with hospital access denied and this will be causing unnecessary deaths. Also, not testing hospital transferees to care homes. Other countries will fare much better than we will, both short term and long term.

Was the picture below from today really necessary? You can get the economy 'going' in a sensible way, but not like this or a packed pub with 30+ infections because they aren't following sensible guidelines.
Screenshot_20200731-165204.jpg
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 1 August, 303,952 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK (pillar 1 and 2, see descriptions below).


Positive cases (pillars 1 and 2) were 771 with 128 Pillar 1.

74 deaths were reported.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
As of 9am on 1 August, 303,952 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK (pillar 1 and 2, see descriptions below).


Positive cases (pillars 1 and 2) were 771 with 128 Pillar 1.

74 deaths were reported.
70 of which either outside of English hospitals or backdated.

EDIT.
 
Last edited:

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 771 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 880
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.1% to 753 per day, following 2.2% increase yesterday (and 15th increase in the past 16 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 14.2% higher than one week ago (from 12.7% higher yesterday) and 23.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 23.5% higher yesterday and 13.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 74 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 120 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings increases by 2.9% to 65 per day, following 0.7% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 1.9% lower than one week ago (from 0.2% lower yesterday) and 4.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 24.2% lower yesterday and 22.7% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 744 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 771
• 7-day average for new cases remains unchanged at 753 per day, following 0.1% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 13.7% higher than one week ago (from 14.2% higher yesterday) and 21.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 23.4% higher yesterday and 10.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 8 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 74 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 1.3% to 64 per day, following 2.9% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 0.4% lower than one week ago (from 1.9% lower yesterday) and 6.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 4.2% lower yesterday and 24.7% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 938 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 744
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 4.8% to 789 per day, following 0.0% change yesterday (and 16th increase in the past 18 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 16.5% higher than one week ago (from 13.7% higher yesterday) and 25.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 21.2% higher yesterday and 8.6% higher 7 days ago)
• 9 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, slightly up from 8 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings increases by 0.4% to 64 per day, following 1.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 0.9% higher than one week ago (from 0.4% lower yesterday) and 6.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 6.7% lower yesterday and 24.7% lower 7 days ago)
 
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