Great analysis there Billy thanksI think this is the salient point. Hospitalisations is the thing to keep an eye on.
If you look at the current 7-day average for infections, the last time we were at this level (on the way up) was around Christmas. At that point in time, we were experiencing an average of 475 deaths per day, compared with about 37 per day now.
It's a bit of a false comparison, as we'd already had a mini-lockdown in November, which suppressed infection rates for a few weeks, but you still had a reservoir of hospitalisations during that period, some of which would unfortunately later translate into deaths. Notwithstanding that, it's still accurate to say that the relationship between infections and deaths has been significantly weakened compared to the 2nd wave.
However, if you look current hospitalisation data, we currently have a 7-day average for admissions of 562 per day, a total of 3,786 people in hospital and 545 patients currently on ventilators. If you look at the last time we had comparable numbers during the 2nd wave (again, on the way up) it was in early October when we had 573 admissions per day, 3,893 people in hospital and 442 patients on ventilators (so pretty close to the same proportions as now). At that point in time, the 7-day average for deaths was about 53 per day (compared with 37 per day now).
So the relationship between infections and deaths does appear to have been significantly weakened. However, the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths, which may have been weakened slightly, does appear to still be there.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and deaths improves over the coming weeks as more people get their remaining vaccines.So the relationship between infections and deaths does appear to have been significantly weakened. However, the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths, which may have been weakened slightly, does appear to still be there.
It probably won't improve, as the reason it got so low was that the cases were made up of younger people, so the hospitalisations were weighted in favour of younger people, and even if they do go to hospital then they have a great chance of getting out of there (especially when the wards are not rammed). The people most at risk have not had their odds of survival increase anymore (in the last month or so), as they're all double jabbed (those that got jabbed), so their risk cannot get lower, it can only get worse.Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and deaths improves over the coming weeks as more people get their remaining vaccines.
It appears the vaccination doesn’t offer immunity, so not sure how we even get there. I yet to get convinced you can actually get ‘herd immunity’. We haven’t with the flu have we?90% or not, the skyrocketing infection numbers are a clear demonstration that we are still a million miles away from any sort of herd immunity.