The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Laughing

Well-known member
I think this is the salient point. Hospitalisations is the thing to keep an eye on.

If you look at the current 7-day average for infections, the last time we were at this level (on the way up) was around Christmas. At that point in time, we were experiencing an average of 475 deaths per day, compared with about 37 per day now.

It's a bit of a false comparison, as we'd already had a mini-lockdown in November, which suppressed infection rates for a few weeks, but you still had a reservoir of hospitalisations during that period, some of which would unfortunately later translate into deaths. Notwithstanding that, it's still accurate to say that the relationship between infections and deaths has been significantly weakened compared to the 2nd wave.

However, if you look current hospitalisation data, we currently have a 7-day average for admissions of 562 per day, a total of 3,786 people in hospital and 545 patients currently on ventilators. If you look at the last time we had comparable numbers during the 2nd wave (again, on the way up) it was in early October when we had 573 admissions per day, 3,893 people in hospital and 442 patients on ventilators (so pretty close to the same proportions as now). At that point in time, the 7-day average for deaths was about 53 per day (compared with 37 per day now).

So the relationship between infections and deaths does appear to have been significantly weakened. However, the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths, which may have been weakened slightly, does appear to still be there.
Great analysis there Billy thanks
 

Jostler

Well-known member
So the relationship between infections and deaths does appear to have been significantly weakened. However, the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths, which may have been weakened slightly, does appear to still be there.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and deaths improves over the coming weeks as more people get their remaining vaccines.

What I’d love to look into in more detail is - In January we only really had one relationship with the virus - unvaccinated (with a minute number with 1 jab) and the link between cases>Hospitalisation>death is well established due to sample size.

Now we have 3 major relationships - Unvaccinated, 1 Jab, 2 Jabs and range of smaller variable relationships based on how long they’ve had each jab for. Each will have its own relationship between cases>hospitalisations>deaths.

I really wish we could get the vaccination breakdown data to get a fuller picture of what those relationship chains look like for each 3 groups.

It would also be good to compare unvaccinated (by age group) with January to compare and see what effect the delta variant is having on H+D
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and deaths improves over the coming weeks as more people get their remaining vaccines.
It probably won't improve, as the reason it got so low was that the cases were made up of younger people, so the hospitalisations were weighted in favour of younger people, and even if they do go to hospital then they have a great chance of getting out of there (especially when the wards are not rammed). The people most at risk have not had their odds of survival increase anymore (in the last month or so), as they're all double jabbed (those that got jabbed), so their risk cannot get lower, it can only get worse.

As the weighting of cases moves to older people (which it is now), then the weighting of hospitalisations will move further towards being older people, and if you put 100 younger people in hospital v 100 old people, then there's only one winner there.

Also, delta spreads so well, that with high infection rates it could probably find it's way to picking out most of the unvaccinated, if they're in public/ risk settings.
 
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bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 16 July, 5,332,371 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 51,870 (35,707 on corresponding day last week).

49 deaths were reported today (29 on corresponding day last week).

152,856 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 2 July).

46,159,145 have had a first dose vaccination. 61,681 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 35,543,321 have had a second dose. 201,893 second dose vaccinations today.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 51,870 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 48,553
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 6.2% to 39,714 per day, following 6.5% increase yesterday (and 59th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 34.9% higher than one week ago (from 32.6% higher yesterday) and 76.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 79.4% higher yesterday and 127.6% higher 7 days ago)
• 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 63 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 7.8% to 39.6 per day, following 12.2% increase yesterday (and 14th increase in the past 16 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 57.4% higher than one week ago (from 47.7% higher yesterday) and 125.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 125.4% higher yesterday and 60.0% higher 7 days ago)

Rate of increase in new cases, which had slowed, appears to be accelerating again.
7-day average for deaths is almost four times what it was 28 days ago.
 

Capybara

Well-known member
I guess we are seeing some of the effect of last weekend starting to come through?

There's still only just over 60% in my borough with any vaccination at all.
 

Randy

Well-known member
I wonder if we are running out of adults to give the 1st dose to?

87.6% of the adult population have received it and we're doing 60k a day.

Seems to me that 90% is going to be the extent of the take up.
90% is a lot better than I expected.
 

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
90% or not, the skyrocketing infection numbers are a clear demonstration that we are still a million miles away from any sort of herd immunity.
It appears the vaccination doesn’t offer immunity, so not sure how we even get there. I yet to get convinced you can actually get ‘herd immunity’. We haven’t with the flu have we?
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 17 July, 5,386,340 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 54,674 (32,367 on corresponding day last week).

41 deaths were reported today (34 on corresponding day last week).

152,856 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 2 July).

46,227,101 have had a first dose vaccination. 67,956 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 35,732,927 have had a second dose. 188,976 second dose vaccinations today.
 
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