The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Andy_W

Well-known member
We have liftoff now, by the looks of it, this is going to get crazy over the next few weeks.

I wonder if the government keep their bottle and stick with the removal of all restrictions, or if we see a massive backtrack after opening, like the Netherlands did.

It's all been modelled mind, this shouldn't be a surprise to them.
 

TheYorkshireTerrier

Well-known member
We have liftoff now, by the looks of it, this is going to get crazy over the next few weeks.

I wonder if the government keep their bottle and stick with the removal of all restrictions, or if we see a massive backtrack after opening, like the Netherlands did.

It's all been modelled mind, this shouldn't be a surprise to them.
Was it a surprise to the Netherlands though? You'd think they would have a similar model to us.
 

Jostler

Well-known member
Despite the case numbers, the effect of vaccines is still great. I ended up down a rabbit hole of despair earlier when I made the mistake of typing Tesco into the twitter search bar to see what reaction was like to their mask decision.

Some of the views on there are bizarre and dangerous, and you wonder how many extra lives would have been saved if it wasn’t for anti vaxx conspiracies on there.

On a related note when did Gillian Mckeith go full conspiracy?
 

NorthumberlandBoro

Well-known member
Despite the case numbers, the effect of vaccines is still great. I ended up down a rabbit hole of despair earlier when I made the mistake of typing Tesco into the twitter search bar to see what reaction was like to their mask decision.

Some of the views on there are bizarre and dangerous, and you wonder how many extra lives would have been saved if it wasn’t for anti vaxx conspiracies on there.

On a related note when did Gillian Mckeith go full conspiracy?
[/QUOTE
Never go full conspiracy
Never go full conspiracy
 

Laughing

Well-known member
We have liftoff now, by the looks of it, this is going to get crazy over the next few weeks.

I wonder if the government keep their bottle and stick with the removal of all restrictions, or if we see a massive backtrack after opening, like the Netherlands did.

It's all been modelled mind, this shouldn't be a surprise to them.
I think I know the answer to this one Andy. Until hospitalization goes much further up, Johnson will do nothing.

He only cares about the optics of overcrowded hospitals and the news reporting patients dying in corridors.

I don't mean to be unkind or unsympathetic, anything but, but I think that has been his position since the beginning.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Despite the case numbers, the effect of vaccines is still great. I ended up down a rabbit hole of despair earlier when I made the mistake of typing Tesco into the twitter search bar to see what reaction was like to their mask decision.

Some of the views on there are bizarre and dangerous, and you wonder how many extra lives would have been saved if it wasn’t for anti vaxx conspiracies on there.

On a related note when did Gillian Mckeith go full conspiracy?
Have Teso said they will continue the mask mandate? I hope so and I hope other supermarkets follow suite, even though this isn't their responsibility.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Was it a surprise to the Netherlands though? You'd think they would have a similar model to us.
They thought they had it under control when they removed all restrictions, we're removing them when we are absolutely certain we have no control.

The Netherlands see now as a massive problem, worthy of massive reverse, and their leader has already publicly apologised. But where they are now is no worse than where we are now, except we've not removed restrictions yet (on paper), and they had them removed for three weeks. Where are we going to be in 3 weeks?

They have slightly less vaccinated than us, but we're both quite long way from herd immunity for the whole population. They can likely be used as a guide for R, after removing all restrictions, and it was estimated at about 2-3 for the peak, and we're about 1.3 now I think, or we were.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Figures of 1000-2000 hospitalisations a day with 100-200 deaths a day peaking in mid-August seems to be the science view, assuming people continue to take precautions including significant mask wearing after legal requirements go.
Link
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I think I know the answer to this one Andy. Until hospitalization goes much further up, Johnson will do nothing.

He only cares about the optics of overcrowded hospitals and the news reporting patients dying in corridors.

I don't mean to be unkind or unsympathetic, anything but, but I think that has been his position since the beginning.
You're totally right.

I 100% get going for the peak in August, not September, October, November, but I don't get why the peak needs to be so high (and still a massive unknown), with massive overshoot.

They could have done it slower, more controlled and burnt the "freedom day" saying down, but they haven't.

I think some people are going to get a lesson in the difference between a "broken link" and a "weakened link", and find out that small percentages of very big numbers are still big numbers.

The only saviour I can think of is if people have already thrown most caution to the wind already, with the Euro's, home gatherings etc. So removing restrictions won't be that bad if people had already removed them of their own accord.
 

Jostler

Well-known member
You're totally right.

I 100% get going for the peak in August, not September, October, November, but I don't get why the peak needs to be so high (and still a massive unknown), with massive overshoot.

They could have done it slower, more controlled and burnt the "freedom day" saying down, but they haven't.

I think some people are going to get a lesson in the difference between a "broken link" and a "weakened link", and find out that small percentages of very big numbers are still big numbers.

The only saviour I can think of is if people have already thrown most caution to the wind already, with the Euro's, home gatherings etc. So removing restrictions won't be that bad if people had already removed them of their own accord.
You really have to wonder what price we are paying for Euro “success”. What would our case numbers look like if we’d gone out in group stage?
 

bear66

Well-known member
You're totally right.

I 100% get going for the peak in August, not September, October, November, but I don't get why the peak needs to be so high (and still a massive unknown), with massive overshoot.

They could have done it slower, more controlled and burnt the "freedom day" saying down, but they haven't.

I think some people are going to get a lesson in the difference between a "broken link" and a "weakened link", and find out that small percentages of very big numbers are still big numbers.

The only saviour I can think of is if people have already thrown most caution to the wind already, with the Euro's, home gatherings etc. So removing restrictions won't be that bad if people had already removed them of their own accord.
The terminology of the link being broken is disingenuous at best. The link obviously will remain, even if it is weaker.

Simplistically, looks like hospitalisations/cases are about half of the January rate and deaths/hospitalisations are about a third of what they were. If we end up at 100-200,000 cases per day . . . .
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
7 day average is still in the mid-30s I think. Billy will confirm later.

It's the hospitalisations that is concerning me. The current total number of folk in hospital was last seen at the end of March.

I think this is the salient point. Hospitalisations is the thing to keep an eye on.

If you look at the current 7-day average for infections, the last time we were at this level (on the way up) was around Christmas. At that point in time, we were experiencing an average of 475 deaths per day, compared with about 37 per day now.

It's a bit of a false comparison, as we'd already had a mini-lockdown in November, which suppressed infection rates for a few weeks, but you still had a reservoir of hospitalisations during that period, some of which would unfortunately later translate into deaths. Notwithstanding that, it's still accurate to say that the relationship between infections and deaths has been significantly weakened compared to the 2nd wave.

However, if you look current hospitalisation data, we currently have a 7-day average for admissions of 562 per day, a total of 3,786 people in hospital and 545 patients currently on ventilators. If you look at the last time we had comparable numbers during the 2nd wave (again, on the way up) it was in early October when we had 573 admissions per day, 3,893 people in hospital and 442 patients on ventilators (so pretty close to the same proportions as now). At that point in time, the 7-day average for deaths was about 53 per day (compared with 37 per day now).

So the relationship between infections and deaths does appear to have been significantly weakened. However, the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths, which may have been weakened slightly, does appear to still be there.
 

bear66

Well-known member
That's good, I didn't know that.

If any of them had mandated it, and others hadn't then I would only shop in the ones that mandated it.
It's difficult to see how they will police it though. Hopefully most will do as requested.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
You really have to wonder what price we are paying for Euro “success”. What would our case numbers look like if we’d gone out in group stage?
Aye, makes me feel a bit guilty enough and I only watched it at my mates with low no's and everyone was double jabbed for most of it.

Some of the scenes I've seen are not similar to my experiences mind.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
It's difficult to see how they will police it though. Hopefully most will do as requested.
I think if you mandate it then most know they should wear it, which will hopefully mean 90% do at least, this might help sway the other 10% or whatever. The anti maskers might feel like a target, not that I'm against that to be honest, not in this setting.

If you say "you should" wear it, then the numbers were about 60% as per the vote on here, and this would wear down and wear down until there were a minority of mask wearers, and then no doubt they then become the target (which I would be against).

Basically a strong mandate, could be self-policing, no mandate would be a free for all.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I think this is the salient point. Hospitalisations is the thing to keep an eye on.

If you look at the current 7-day average for infections, the last time we were at this level (on the way up) was around Christmas. At that point in time, we were experiencing an average of 475 deaths per day, compared with about 37 per day now.

It's a bit of a false comparison, as we'd already had a mini-lockdown in November, which suppressed infection rates for a few weeks, but you still had a reservoir of hospitalisations during that period, some of which would unfortunately later translate into deaths. Notwithstanding that, it's still accurate to say that the relationship between infections and deaths has been significantly weakened compared to the 2nd wave.

However, if you look current hospitalisation data, we currently have a 7-day average for admissions of 562 per day, a total of 3,786 people in hospital and 545 patients currently on ventilators. If you look at the last time we had comparable numbers during the 2nd wave (again, on the way up) it was in early October when we had 573 admissions per day, 3,893 people in hospital and 442 patients on ventilators (so pretty close to the same proportions as now). At that point in time, the 7-day average for deaths was about 53 per day (compared with 37 per day now).

So the relationship between infections and deaths does appear to have been significantly weakened. However, the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths, which may have been weakened slightly, does appear to still be there.
Yep, agree with all of that.

The thing is it's the lag, and what the makeup of these cases is, it's hard to tell and sharp increases in big numbers could put us on a path we cannot avoid.

As you know, cases ∝ hospitalisations ∝ deaths and that the only change in this is the value of the proportionality. I think we've established what the proportionality is now, so if we know the cases we know where the hospitalisations are going, and then the deaths.

The problem is the previous cases rises were mainly the young, but this is not the case now, so where we looked "ok" before, will soon change fast when cases double but the proportion of older/ at-risk increases too.
 
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