The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Andy_W

Well-known member
I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves here, it's not really "slowed down" much from the long trend line of the last two months, we're still at R of about 1.3 (which is a nightmare), and that's before we potentially "do a Netherlands" next week.

The natural R, might have been 1.3-4 for weeks but had just been "upped" to 1.5 for periods, because of people mixing for the euro's etc.

Can draw a pretty straight line of similar growth for the last two months (green line), since we started step 3, this is not going to reduce at Step 4, that took the Netherlands to an R of 2-3.

Be interesting to see what sort of bounce Sunday casues, as it looks like the "rules" went out the window for some. I imagine that may start to show up over the next few days.

I'm not saying it isn't turning due to vaxxines though, but most of the modellers stil think we're a long way form herd immunity, and won't have our peak till mid-late August. It's not really hit London yet, which massively suprises me as that's the most congested and least vaccinated area.

1626167917423.png
 

Capybara

Well-known member
It's not really hit London yet, which massively suprises me as that's the most congested and least vaccinated area.
Where did you get that from? It's 400+ round here and rising and not surprising as we've only got 37% doubly vaccinated.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves here, it's not really "slowed down" much from the long trend line of the last two months, we're still at R of about 1.3 (which is a nightmare), and that's before we potentially "do a Netherlands" next week.

The natural R, might have been 1.3-4 for weeks but had just been "upped" to 1.5 for periods, because of people mixing for the euro's etc.

Can draw a pretty straight line of similar growth for the last two months (green line), since we started step 3, this is not going to reduce at Step 4, that took the Netherlands to an R of 2-3.

Be interesting to see what sort of bounce Sunday casues, as it looks like the "rules" went out the window for some. I imagine that may start to show up over the next few days.

I'm not saying it isn't turning due to vaxxines though, but most of the modellers stil think we're a long way form herd immunity, and won't have our peak till mid-late August. It's not really hit London yet, which massively suprises me as that's the most congested and least vaccinated area.

View attachment 21237
There is a little bump at the top of the graph, suggesting a slow down, but if you look down a bit, you see the same thing in June before it started to climb at an increased rate again. I am hoping I am right, of course, but we have just had a drunken binge, some of it indoors, and lots of it with unvaccinated younger folks.

On the subject of herd immunity, I would have thought that can't happen because vaccinated you can still catch the virus, they are not immune just protected from hospitalizations. Not sure you can catch it twice or at what rate. But I don't see vaccinations alone getting us to herd immunity. The vaccinated will still have to catch it I would have thought to get the natural immunity.

I see that hospitalizations are increasing and some hospitals have already stopped elective surgeries. In preparation of the worst case scenario, I imagine.

deaths are still low, but assuming like-for-like moving forward, at 100,000 new infections a day, if we get there, that is going to end up with somewhere near 100 deaths a day. The question then becomes, for how long, and what is winter going to bring?

It's all very uncertain at the minute and that uncertainty is quite unsettling.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Where did you get that from? It's 400+ round here and rising and not surprising as we've only got 37% doubly vaccinated.
I mean not fully hit, like how it hit the NW, Scotland etc, wait until we start seeing purple all over London, if it happens.

1626169958406.png
 

Corcaigh_the_Cat

Well-known member
I was catching up on the No More Surgeons blog the other day. I noticed that they've had to reopen the Covid intensive care area.

Hopefully deaths remain low but it's a worrying sign.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
There is a little bump at the top of the graph, suggesting a slow down, but if you look down a bit, you see the same thing in June before it started to climb at an increased rate again. I am hoping I am right, of course, but we have just had a drunken binge, some of it indoors, and lots of it with unvaccinated younger folks.

On the subject of herd immunity, I would have thought that can't happen because vaccinated you can still catch the virus, they are not immune just protected from hospitalizations. Not sure you can catch it twice or at what rate. But I don't see vaccinations alone getting us to herd immunity. The vaccinated will still have to catch it I would have thought to get the natural immunity.

I see that hospitalizations are increasing and some hospitals have already stopped elective surgeries. In preparation of the worst case scenario, I imagine.

deaths are still low, but assuming like-for-like moving forward, at 100,000 new infections a day, if we get there, that is going to end up with somewhere near 100 deaths a day. The question then becomes, for how long, and what is winter going to bring?

It's all very uncertain at the minute and that uncertainty is quite unsettling.
Yeah, I've seen the small change, but that's come after we were higher than the trend line. I posted positively about 3-4 weeks back when it was "turning" the same, but the week after it went to 1.5, and then 1.6, so I was definitely wrong, it's just movements around the mean (until it isn't), which is likely mid August it seems.

Herd immunity has to happen, I think, but yes, some vaccinated will still get it, but they will get it but nowhere near as bad. So vaccinated and then v-mild infection = part of the herd immunity percentage. 90% of double vaxxed adults is enough, but not when kids are 5% vaxxed or whatever it is, but they're going to add to the herd immunity pile through natural infection if we don't allow them to be vaccinated (by choice).

We're at 600 hospitalisations now, per day, so >1000 is a practical certainty based on current R, but R is going to go up next week, I just hope it doesn't go up too much, and those hospitalisations don't mean >200 deaths per day. I suppose we kind of have to accept 100, we're not going to get away from that now, and there had to be an exit wave.

It feels strange having to accept the lower lines on the models, and I think most would/ have to, but if we start heading higher I think some restrictions might come back, just to put a cap on it.

I think that (this wave) will be the end of it mind, the idea is to get this out of the way now, rather than having it at Christmas, around other issues.

1626170746080.png
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Right, I'd been using that map. There's plenty of purple if you zoom in a bit.
Yeah, but also when you zoom in there's lots of blue, light blue, and green, and no dark purple. Then if you look at the NE, it's practially all purple and dark purple. As soon as London starts looking like that on the right, it's a big problem.

What it does show is that the "peak" is going to be for different areas at different times, we're having ours now, London is still a while away and wil llikely peak when the models do, mid August time.

1626170962500.png 1626171003430.png

Compare North East, top, with London bottom. North East has doubled January, London is still at 1/3rd of January.

1626171173189.png

1626171202687.png
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Yeah, I've seen the small change, but that's come after we were higher than the trend line. I posted positively about 3-4 weeks back when it was "turning" the same, but the week after it went to 1.5, and then 1.6, so I was definitely wrong, it's just movements around the mean (until it isn't), which is likely mid August it seems.

Herd immunity has to happen, I think, but yes, some vaccinated will still get it, but they will get it but nowhere near as bad. So vaccinated and then v-mild infection = part of the herd immunity percentage. 90% of double vaxxed adults is enough, but not when kids are 5% vaxxed or whatever it is, but they're going to add to the herd immunity pile through natural infection if we don't allow them to be vaccinated (by choice).

We're at 600 hospitalisations now, per day, so >1000 is a practical certainty based on current R, but R is going to go up next week, I just hope it doesn't go up too much, and those hospitalisations don't mean >200 deaths per day. I suppose we kind of have to accept 100, we're not going to get away from that now, and there had to be an exit wave.

It feels strange having to accept the lower lines on the models, and I think most would/ have to, but if we start heading higher I think some restrictions might come back, just to put a cap on it.

I think that (this wave) will be the end of it mind, the idea is to get this out of the way now, rather than having it at Christmas, around other issues.

View attachment 21240
Let's hope this is the last wave.

I don't think Johnson will introduce restrictions again he painted himself into a corner so if restrictions are to come they will be too late and we will be in an awful place again.

In my opinion we opened up too soon after letting the Johnson variant in.

Johnson has every egg in the vaccination basket and he will be hoping that vaccinations are enough on their own. I find myself in the unusual position of hoping he is right.
 

Littlejimmy

Well-known member
Johnson changed his tune on irreversible release of restrictions in that presser yesterday (i.e. he lied). He said he'd always insisted he'd HOPED they would be irreversible, which is just not the case, but he wants wriggle-room now so he can U-turn if it goes t*ts up. He gets away with lying constantly.
 

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
I’ll put another way, has herd immunity ever been achieved when you cannot prevent the illness from happening in vaccinated people
 
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