The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

As of 9am on 7 July, 4,990,916 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 32,548 (26,068 on corresponding day last week).
33 deaths were reported today (14 on corresponding day last week).

152,725 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 25 June).

45,514,492 have had a first dose vaccination. 85,811 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 34,027,302 have had a second dose. 153,126 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 32,548 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 28,773
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 3.5% to 27,557 per day, following 4.7% increase yesterday (and 49th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 43.2% higher than one week ago (from 49.4% higher yesterday) and 142.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 157.5% higher yesterday and 143.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 33 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 37 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 13.4% to 23.0 per day, following 10.9% increase yesterday (and 6th increase in the past 7 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 42.5% higher than one week ago (from 20.3% higher yesterday) and 59.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 56.0% higher yesterday and 71.2% higher 7 days ago)
 
One of the almost good signs (maybe clutching at straws) is R appears to be slowing, although it appeared that way a couple of weeks ago too, before rocketing. Hospitalisations doubling every 11 days is a bad sign though.

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Need a quick turn around, and sharpish, otherwise we're heading for trouble, and thats before we take off the parking brake on the 19th.

At least growth rates in the young look like they're turning a corner, but we need these down below or near 1 soon.

1625683208927.png
 
As of 9am on 8 July, 5,022,893 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 32,551 (27,989 on corresponding day last week).

35 deaths were reported today (22 on corresponding day last week).

152,725 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 25 June).

45,601,445 have had a first dose vaccination. 86,953 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 34,198,779 have had a second dose. 171,477 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 32,551 new cases reported in 24-hour period, almost unchanged from yesterday's 32,548
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.4% to 28,209 per day, following 3.5% increase yesterday (and 50th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 35.3% higher than one week ago (from 43.2% higher yesterday) and 131.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 142.7% higher yesterday and 148.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 35 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 33 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 8.1% to 24.9 per day, following 13.4% increase yesterday (and 7th increase in the past 8 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 52.6% higher than one week ago (from 42.5% higher yesterday) and 68.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 59.4% higher yesterday and 46.2% higher 7 days ago)

First instance of three consecutive days with 30+ reported deaths since 17th April.
 
Jostler said:
A glimmer of hope?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413152099160887305
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Possibly. However, we must remember that the rate of increase over the past few weeks has been eye wateringly high and the average daily increase over the past 7 days is still at 4.5%. That suggests a doubling rate of roughly every two weeks, even if the rate of increase has slowed slightly.

Also, the flip side is that the rate of increase in the 7-day average for reported deaths has been accelerating for the past five days. Now, if you believe that this metric is more important than the number of cases, that is certainly pause for thought.
 
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Jostler said:
A glimmer of hope?
Click to expand...

Aye, but like Billy says, a reduction in growth is nowhere near an actual reduction in cases (although some modellers think there's small chance this may be possible soon). R was at 1.6 which is ridiculous, but now it's just at 1.4 which is just bad, but not as bad.

There's some good signs that the rate of growth is dropping quickly in the groups that had the highest rates (Ages 10-30), but the problem is it's increasing in the groups of those more at risk (70+, but mainly 80+ and 90+). So where you might lose two cases of the young, we're gaining one of the old, and that one of the old has a lot more risk than the two young combined. It's less long covid though, I suppose.

The reduction in the rate of growth in cases, is now matched by the rate of growth of hospitalisations and death, but this is likely due to lag, so if reduction of rate of growth is happening in cases now, then this should mean hospitalisations and deaths growth starts to reduce in a couple of weeks (it's about 10 days behind). The only thing is, it might not, as it's older/ more at-risk cases, who are catching it now.

Everything is constantly changing and changing extremely quickly, and with the lag, and external factors this is becoming quite difficult to see where we are now, never mind where we could be heading. Just got to hope the lifting of the remaining restrictions doesn't bump R too much, and that people do actually take some personal responsibility.
 
Billy Horner said:
Possibly. However, we must remember that the rate of increase over the past few weeks has been eye wateringly high and the average daily increase over the past 7 days is still at 4.5%. That suggests a doubling rate of roughly every two weeks, even if the rate of increase has slowed slightly.

Also, the flip side is that the rate of increase in the 7-day average for reported deaths has been accelerating for the past five days. Now, if you believe that this metric is more important than the number of cases, that is certainly pause for thought.
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Johnsons ridiculous answers in PMQ's didn't help much. If the figures he was giving were even remotely accurate we are all screwed.. He mentioned that vaccinations are 90% effective in stopping hospitalizations. On face value that means that with 100,000 infections a day, 10,000 will be hospitalised. I think what he meant, or at least I hope, is that only 10% of people previously hospitalised, will be hospitalised if they have had the vaccine.

The real numbers at the moment are about 2 per 100,000 of population (end of june) from a high at the beginning of the year of just under 40 per 100,000. Even allowing for lower infection rates at the moment that is a huge drop off.

there are 2 worrying factors. If infection rates continue to increase, hospital stays will increase also, albeit at a much lower rate per infected. If the infections go up enough, hospitals become overwhelmed. The second thing that is a worry is the cost to people being asked to isolate without an adequate support package.

100,000 infections a day is a lot of contacts that will be required to isolate. This reduces the workforce and applies financial pressure to those families, if indeed they do isolate.

The rate of increase of new infections is starting to slow, but we are still going to end up with a very high, high.

The government have essentially gambled that infections will start to reduce before hospitals become overwhelmed, but once again Johnson doesn't really care about those who die as a result of his ridiculous roadmap and timescales.
 
As of 9am on 9 July, 5,058,093 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 35,707 (27,125 on corresponding day last week).

29 deaths were reported today (27 on corresponding day last week).

152,725 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 25 June).

45,697,875 have had a first dose vaccination. 96,430 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 34,374,246 have had a second dose. 175,467 second dose vaccinations today.
 
bear66 said:
As of 9am on 9 July, 5,058,093 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 35,707 (27,125 on corresponding day last week).

29 deaths were reported today (27 on corresponding day last week).

152,725 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 25 June).

45,697,875 have had a first dose vaccination. 96,430 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 34,374,246 have had a second dose. 175,467 second dose vaccinations today.
Click to expand...

509 hospitalisations in UK (461 in England), it's overshot the last model range from SPI-M, that was put together based on data up to the 28/6.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...00488/S1299_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf

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R looks to be turning a corner though, down to 1.3 now, just hope it doesn't go back up, at the least.
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Today's headline analysis:

• 35,707 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 32,551
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 4.3% to 29,435 per day, following 2.4% increase yesterday (and 51st consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 31.0% higher than one week ago (from 35.3% higher yesterday) and 127.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 131.8% higher yesterday and 157.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 29 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 35 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 1.1% to 25.1 per day, following 8.1% increase yesterday (and 8th increase in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 43.1% higher than one week ago (from 52.6% higher yesterday) and 60.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 68.9% higher yesterday and 70.8% higher 7 days ago)
 
I thought we were heading for trouble, but has anyone been keeping an eye on The Netherlands?
From Twitter:
- June 26th: The Netherlands🇳🇱 lifted almost all restrictions.
- June 27th: the number of cases was 504
- July 8th: the number of cases reached. 6,984

Delta showed that a 13.8 fold increase in 13 days is not only *possible*, its EASY.

They can’t calculate the current R yet, as it’s too steep and they don’t have enough data, but they estimate it’s easily over 3, and I doubt any of our models allow for anywhere near that. I know we’re more vaccinated though, and have had more previous infections, but that growth is insane.

Needless to say, they’ve gone back to having restrictions.

Most of their growth seemingly came from under 30’s, and nightclub/ bar settings.
 
bear66 said:
The Netherlands opened night clubs two weeks ago. A sudden peak yesterday to a third of the UK rate and they've reimposed them until 14 August. They are vaccinating at 3 times our rate and will overtake our vaccination numbers in about two weeks.
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Close them forever. Nightclub owners and their employees can all go work in Amazon warehouses until the robots make those jobs redundant. Then we can put those folks to work in the cobalt and zinc mines. 😉
 
bear66 said:
The Netherlands opened night clubs two weeks ago. A sudden peak yesterday to a third of the UK rate and they've reimposed them until 14 August. They are vaccinating at 3 times our rate and will overtake our vaccination numbers in about two weeks.
Click to expand...
Did you see my post above, a 14 fold increase in 13 days, is crazy.

Didn’t realise they were not far behind us vaccine wise though, makes it even worse, as it practically proves it’s possible here too, albeit we’re starting from a much, much higher base, and had previous worse infection.
 
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