The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 5,089 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 4,618
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.9% to 5,756 per day, following 1.4% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.3% lower than one week ago (from 4.9% lower yesterday) and 27.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 34.6% lower yesterday and 47.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 64 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 52 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.1% to 145 per day, following 2.9% decrease yesterday (and 50th decrease in the past 51 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 29.6% lower than one week ago (from 31.4% lower yesterday) and 53.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 55.3% lower yesterday and 57.1% lower 7 days ago)
 
Do we think levelling out around 5k a day is the best we can hope for before summer, given the number of tests conducted, different segments of society being tested?
 
Alvez_48 said:
Do we think levelling out around 5k a day is the best we can hope for before summer, given the number of tests conducted, different segments of society being tested?
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The heat map should begin to show a disproportionate increase of younger age groups if that's the case. England data below. That's possibly the case looking at 15-19 and may just be an increase in 10-14. All other age groups steady or declining (bands too wide to tell).
Screenshot_20210316-114906.jpg
 
bear66 said:
The heat map should begin to show a disproportionate increase of younger age groups if that's the case. England data below. That's possibly the case looking at 15-19 and may just be an increase in 10-14. All other age groups steady or declining (bands too wide to tell).
View attachment 15319
Click to expand...

I think we will hit a logical floor for deaths in the double digits as well. We have 1300 deaths a day in England approximately 50% of deaths are in hospital, covid tests is mandatory in hospital so even at under 1% positive rate you get 7ish within 28 a day there.
This is where the testing actually becomes a real burden on decision making.
 
Alvez_48 said:
I think we will hit a logical floor for deaths in the double digits as well. We have 1300 deaths a day in England approximately 50% of deaths are in hospital, covid tests is mandatory in hospital so even at under 1% positive rate you get 7ish within 28 a day there.
This is where the testing actually becomes a real burden on decision making.
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Agree. Hope the aim isn't for a complete eradication of covid as this would be next to impossible. Getting it down to tolerable levels should be the aim. In the knowledge that anything tolerable now will drop as vaccinations increase and treatments improve.
 
SmallTown said:
Agree. Hope the aim isn't for a complete eradication of covid as this would be next to impossible. Getting it down to tolerable levels should be the aim. In the knowledge that anything tolerable now will drop as vaccinations increase and treatments improve.
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Treatments has to be the focus now, we're in the process of removing the biggest risk of death through vaccinations. This should buy us some time to make sure that come this winter or next, as antibodies start to wane, there is improved treatment for those that do end up in hospital. Hopefully resigning it to a manageable virus that many of us may pick up in the future without too much worry for implications.
 
Jostler said:
Treatments has to be the focus now, we're in the process of removing the biggest risk of death through vaccinations. This should buy us some time to make sure that come this winter or next, as antibodies start to wane, there is improved treatment for those that do end up in hospital. Hopefully resigning it to a manageable virus that many of us may pick up in the future without too much worry for implications.
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I don't think we will need to treat many, assuming there are no major strain changes, everyone will have had a vaccination within 10 month of winter starting, and they may even just add a booster or it may end up forming part of the flu jab or as regular as that.

It will be interesting what happens with flu mind, as although we're still in positive covid deaths we're now likely already well below typical deaths, looking at the latest ONS data (which is two weeks old, up to W/E 5th March).

1615909627020.png


Covid deaths are going to end up near zero, but we're goign to still end up saving more from flu and other transmissible diseases. We could end up running at 80-90% of weekly deaths all the way to summer, as a secondary effect of the goverment trying to get covid to a low base level, pre summer.

Would have been easier saving those deaths by locking down earlier before crimbo, or last march mind, rather than doing it now. Too slow to go into lockdown and too slow to come out of it.
 
As of 9am on 16 March, 4,268,821 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,294.

110 deaths were reported today

146,487 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 5 March)

24,839,906 have had a first dose vaccination. 386,685 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,663,646 have had a second dose. 53,366 second dose vaccinations today.
 
bear66 said:
As of 9am on 16 March, 4,268,821 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,294.

110 deaths were reported today

146,487 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 5 March)

24,839,906 have had a first dose vaccination. 386,685 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,663,646 have had a second dose. 53,366 second dose vaccinations today.
Click to expand...
Less than half the deaths of last Tuesday, that's some reduction, if we can keep that up for the week.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 5,294 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 5,089
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.2% to 5,689 per day, following 0.9% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 1.9% lower than one week ago (from 2.3% lower yesterday) and 25.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 27.9% lower yesterday and 46.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 110 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 64 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 11.9% to 128 per day, following 0.1% decrease yesterday (and 51st decrease in the past 52 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 32.8% lower than one week ago (from 29.6% lower yesterday) and 55.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 53.8% lower yesterday and 57.3% lower 7 days ago)
 
Alvez_48 said:
I think we will hit a logical floor for deaths in the double digits as well. We have 1300 deaths a day in England approximately 50% of deaths are in hospital, covid tests is mandatory in hospital so even at under 1% positive rate you get 7ish within 28 a day there.
This is where the testing actually becomes a real burden on decision making.
Click to expand...
I would expect infections to bounce around a bit Alvez, mostly amongst the younger ones. Whilst we still have covid in the population older people will still die from it, but it is, hopefully, going to be very low numbers and just become another seasonal killer we learn to live with.

Here's hoping for no new vaccine resistent strains in the near future. This will be the obvious fear. The government have already secured vaccinations for next winter, so the plan is, evidently to continue to offer the vaccination to over 55's as they do currently with the flu. I can't see another year of vaccinating every adult, but who knows.
 
As of 9am on 17 March, 4,274,579 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,758.

141 deaths were reported today

146,487 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 5 March)

25,273,226 have had a first dose vaccination. 433,320 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,759,445 have had a second dose. 95,799 second dose vaccinations today.
 
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