The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

[Randy]

I have an opinion on opening schools and it isn't very attractive. Firstly the government shouldn't be setting out dates for opening schools at the moment. They should wait and see where we are mid february ,then assess at the end of february and consult with LEA's and the teachers union. Johnson is repeating his mistakes with aspirational targets that he has no idea whether he can meet or not.

I think he is doing this so he can point his fat stupid finger at Starmer and accuse him of wanting to keep schools shut and bowing to his paymaster unions. He is trying to deflect from the mass killer he has become.

Johnson doesn't care about the folks dying, he doesn't care that teachers may be put at risk.

On BoroFur's point short notice reserve lists are a great idea, failling that go to the supermarket next door and offer it there. My sister in-law posted something on facebook, I think yesterday. Train Amazon drivers to adminsiter the vaccine, we will all be done by Tuesday, Saturday if you've got prime.

Respectfully I disagree.

Parents need to know what's happening and what the plan is. The snowball is getting bigger and quicker by the day. I genuinely fear for my kids future prospects at the moment. If they were in private education I'd have no such worries.

 

[Laughing]

Respectfully I disagree.

Parents need to know what's happening and what the plan is. The snowball is getting bigger and quicker by the day. I genuinely fear for my kids future prospects at the moment. If they were in private education I'd have no such worries.

I agree Randy that we need to get schools open. What I disagree with is Johnson, at the peak of deaths, spouting a made up date to get our kids back in school with no context as to how he is going to do that, what metrics have to be met before our kids go back. I have some skin in this particular game with a 10 year old, as i know you do.

If he were to, I dunno, show some thinking around the statement with perhaps a chart showing where infection rates will be end of feb, begining of march and show why he is tageting the 8th of March as a return date.

He hasn't done any of that. I would think that infection rates will be higher than the autumn lockdown and deaths will be higher. So why the 8th of March? What's his thinking? Is he going to prioritize vaccinating teachers over other groups? What do local LEA's have to do to hit the march taget?

Johnson has consistently over promised and under delivered all last year. You think as a parent you now know that our kids are going back to school in March? I don't believe it. He is using our children as pawns in a political game.

 

[JackG]

Respectfully I disagree.

Parents need to know what's happening and what the plan is. The snowball is getting bigger and quicker by the day. I genuinely fear for my kids future prospects at the moment. If they were in private education I'd have no such worries.

Respectfully, this doesn't help them. Johnson's last 'plan' had schools reopening for 1 day; they've been closed ever since. This is because he optimistically pulled an arbitrary date out of his ar*e without looking at the evidence. He's about to make exactly the same mistake. By all means plan for, say, a March 8 return, but don't overpromise (again) for PR purposes.

 

[ForssAwakens]

You can’t put a deadline in place. The virus doesn’t respect deadlines.

if the schools are going to open on the 8th March, surely all teachers should be vaccinated as a priority

rather than set a date you should set criteria/conditions on what it would take to re-open schools. Then it’s clear on everyone what must happen

 

[Randy]

I agree Randy that we need to get schools open. What I disagree with is Johnson, at the peak of deaths, spouting a made up date to get our kids back in school with no context as to how he is going to do that, what metrics have to be met before our kids go back. I have some skin in this particular game with a 10 year old, as i know you do.

If he were to, I dunno, show some thinking around the statement with perhaps a chart showing where infection rates will be end of feb, begining of march and show why he is tageting the 8th of March as a return date.

He hasn't done any of that. I would think that infection rates will be higher than the autumn lockdown and deaths will be higher. So why the 8th of March? What's his thinking? Is he going to prioritize vaccinating teachers over other groups? What do local LEA's have to do to hit the march taget?

Johnson has consistently over promised and under delivered all last year. You think as a parent you now know that our kids are going back to school in March? I don't believe it. He is using our children as pawns in a political game.

Why should teachers be vaccinated before say delivery drivers, supermarket workers, utility contractors who have continued to work normally thought-out the pandemic?

I'm saying that though I read something the other day about a getting the teachers vaccinated through the next half term and it wouldn't cost the government a penny because some group was funding it? Ultimately that's all the likes of Johnson, Gove, Hancock etc are bothered about, money.

 

[Laughing]

I think teachers should be vaccinated before supermarket workers and delivery drivers because of the way school social interactions work. With kids the bubbles don't work particularly well so the kids mix at break time, home time etc. They then mix with their families and go back to school the next day. They are probably rubbish at washing their hands too.

The other categories you mention interact with other adults who can take some personal responsability.

Ultimately I don't know where the infection vectors are worse, schools or supermarkets so I can't say with any certainty. I would be a bit surprised if supermarkets or delivery drivers spread the infection as much as schools though.

 

[Andy_W]

I feel for the teachers, I really, really, really do, but I don't see much point giving an under 40 year old a vaccine, if they work in a school, not yet anyway. The maths of it don't stack up. That vaccine could be given to some 60 year old, with 100 times more risk of dying. 100 infections in a school is better than 1 in a care home or 10 in a supermarket.

Yes, the teachers could catch it from a kid, and then pass onto another kid, but the chances are the kids are mixing closer anyway, there's no way of stopping transmission in schools, not with schools open and kids mixing out of school. It's why they keep opening the schools early, they're not concerned about kids passing to kids or teachers as they're all (mostly) low risk groups and they're all part of the childcare solution enabling others to work. It's not about the kids education (for the government), it's a myth, it's about the economics of it and the deaths.

The only point I could see is that a teacher may come home and give it to a partner, but chances are they're not in a high risk group either and it's not like they will both be going to visit granny, as that's not allowed yet. When the 15m are done and we're back into tiers then that would be a good time to prioritise teachers and public workers that regularly see older folk.

I work from home, and I'm in my 30's, so I'm practically zero risk, they can do every teacher before me, I would be more than happy with that.

 

[ForssAwakens]

I feel for the teachers, I really, really, really do, but I don't see much point giving an under 40 year old a vaccine, if they work in a school, not yet anyway. The maths of it don't stack up. That vaccine could be given to some 60 year old, with 100 times more risk of dying. 100 infections in a school is better than 1 in a care home or 10 in a supermarket.

Yes, the teachers could catch it from a kid, and then pass onto another kid, but the chances are the kids are mixing closer anyway, there's no way of stopping transmission in schools, not with schools open and kids mixing out of school. It's why they keep opening the schools early, they're not concerned about kids passing to kids or teachers as they're all (mostly) low risk groups and they're all part of the childcare solution enabling others to work. It's not about the kids education (for the government), it's a myth, it's about the economics of it and the deaths.

The only point I could see is that a teacher may come home and give it to a partner, but chances are they're not in a high risk group either and it's not like they will both be going to visit granny, as that's not allowed yet. When the 15m are done and we're back into tiers then that would be a good time to prioritise teachers and public workers that regularly see older folk.

I work from home, and I'm in my 30's, so I'm practically zero risk, they can do every teacher before me, I would be more than happy with that.

Because if teachers under 40 go off to isolate or sick then you have a supply problem to teach

 

[Laughing]

Andy with new variants 20%of deaths are under 60 years old. It still impacts older people more but the new strains are proving more deadly for a younger demographic.

Teachers at an average age of 44 are at risk unfortunately.

 

[Andy_W]

Because if teachers under 40 go off to isolate or sick then you have a supply problem to teach

Yes, that makes sense, but it's an "if", and not a great risk of death if it did happen. Is 10 days isolation at very low risk, worse than a 65 year old missing out, and potentially passing onto other 65 year olds, taking up a hospital bed etc? Schools are also mostly closed at the minute, or with limited numbers, and half the kids home schooling.

 

[Andy_W]

Andy with new variants 20%of deaths are under 60 years old. It still impacts older people more but the new strains are proving more deadly for a younger demographic.

Teachers at an average age of 44 are at risk unfortunately.

Are they? I've not seen the data on that, do you have a link? I don't doubt it by the way, just wouldn't mind seeing it.
Lets not forget that the percentages are going to sway younger and younger, as we go along, as more and more of the elderly get vaccinated and more protection.
The age swaying younger should be a good sign, providing IFR isn't increasing (it should actually decrease).

I'm not saying not vaccinate all the teachers, maybe those over 50 would be at the same risk as a 65 year old. A 65 year old may have 10x more chance of dying, but 10x less chance of catching it (as a teacher, right on the front line).

Like I say, certainly not a pop at the teachers, this is more about getting "bang for buck" for stopping deaths and limiting spread into the older groups, as once it's in those groups it will spread within them.

 

[Laughing]

Andy the ons was where I got the figures from. First 2 weeks of January so probably nothing to do with vaccinations yet. There was a news article 2 days ago about wards with young people in them all suffering from covid and needing treatment.

 

[Andy_W]

Andy the ons was where I got the figures from. First 2 weeks of January so probably nothing to do with vaccinations yet. There was a news article 2 days ago about wards with young people in them all suffering from covid and needing treatment.

Ah ok, I've not looked at the latest release on that or compared it with other ones, doesn't sound great though, if not vaccine effected, but there should be an impact on that soon. The age could also be reducing as we've basically killed off a load of the vulnerable already, or have got better at shielding the older. That will be the next argument from the deniers, when we go below the excess deaths line in spring/ summer.

The picture below is starting to look a lot better, thankfully, just need to keep it up.

 

[bear66]

ONS figures comparing

Wave 1 and Wave 2
Prior to New Variant announcement and after New Variant announcement
Last weeks figures

Very similar age profiles with slightly younger last week compared with previous figures.

 

[bear66]

As of 9am on 29 January, 3,772,813 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 29,079.

1245 deaths were reported today

103,602 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 15 January)

7,891,184 have had a first dose vaccination. 443,985 first dose vaccinations yesterday.

 

[Randy]

 

[Laughing]

ONS figures comparing

Wave 1 and Wave 2
Prior to New Variant announcement and after New Variant announcement
Last weeks figures

Very similar age profiles with slightly younger last week compared with previous figures.

View attachment 13058

I downloaded a spreadsheet that showed 5 under 1 year old died in a week bear. I'll have another look because the figures I looked at don't look anything like that table.

 

[Andy_W]

Good to see the vaccine numbers back up, hopefully a sign that the big numbers from last week were not a one off.

2.4m vaccinated in the last week, it's good going.

 

[Laughing]

I downloaded a spreadsheet that showed 5 under 1 year old died in a week bear. I'll have another look because the figures I looked at don't look anything like that table.

Apologies I was looking at deaths for all causes tab. Indeed the demographic is similar to wave 1 slightly lower age range but not by much.

 

[SmallTown]

Cases are starting to creep back up. I hear the r rate is rising too. That’s a worry. But I reckon the vaccine effect will kick in soon and hopefully bring things down