The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Forget the question, I am dumb, 85% of the time they will score in the first half, that has to be correct or I am dumber than I thought.
 
bear66 said:
That isn't right as 0.85 goals includes games they've scored 2 goals in a half. So it could be 42.5%.

Some assumptions need to be made.
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Laughing is actually correct because he stated 0.85 goals in the 'first half' of games not just in games total. 😉
 
Ah right Bear, so it isnt a simple calculation and you would need to have a record of goals over multiple games, and the percentage would only be relevant to the data set you calculate on.. Disappointing
 
Laughing said:
Ah right Bear, so it isnt a simple calculation and you would need to have a record of goals over multiple games, and the percentage would only be relevant to the data set you calculate on.. Disappointing
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That's the way to look at it. Number of times 1, 2 or, assuming a team could score that many, 3 goals in the first half. If they never score 2 or more. 85% would be right.
 
bear66 said:
That's the way to look at it. Number of times 1, 2 or, assuming a team could score that many, 3 goals in the first half.
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Like Boro you mean, 3 goals in one half, statistically highly unlikely for boro, according to my data. I guess the data is all available if I can be bothered mining it.
 
Laughing said:
Like Boro you mean, 3 goals in one half, statistically highly unlikely for boro, according to my data. I guess the data is all available if I can be bothered mining it.
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You must have dreamt that. Boro never score three times in the first half!

When was the last time? Arsenal away decades ago or have we done it in the Championship?
 
Laughing said:
Ah right Bear, so it isnt a simple calculation and you would need to have a record of goals over multiple games, and the percentage would only be relevant to the data set you calculate on.. Disappointing
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I'm not sure it actually matters with the way you worded the question... I get that if you score more than one it seems to impact the % but wouldn't it still just be 85% likely statistically..

Even if you scored 5 in one first half and then 0 the next 5 or whatever
 
Alvez_48 said:
I'm not sure it actually matters with the way you worded the question... I get that if you score more than one it seems to impact the % but wouldn't it still just be 85% likely statistically..

Even if you scored 5 in one first half and then 0 the next 5 or whatever
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No. If you're historically scored 0.85 goals per first half game but only scored in 60% of first half games. Statistically you'd have a 60% possibility of scoring a goal in the next first half of a game.
 
I think that makes sense Bear, not the answer I wanted, but better to have the right answer than a crappy assumption.
 
Laughing said:
I think that makes sense Bear, not the answer I wanted, but better to have the right answer than a crappy assumption.
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It's much more complex in reality. Were the games you scored in against teams below you and / or home but not away. That will affect the statistical odds of what might happen in the next game. Not to mention will Whatmore or Assombalonga be up front.
 
bear66 said:
No. If you're historically scored 0.85 goals per first half game but only scored in 60% of first half games. Statistically you'd have a 60% possibility of scoring a goal in the next first half of a game.
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Ah yes agreed well put, I bow my head to you sir.
It's all @Laughing fault with his stoopid questions, Boro score when they want (unless they don't which is quite often.) 🤣

Also doesn't that just mean that to to derive the answer is simply %chance of first half goal = Number of games / times goal scored in first half?
 
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bear66 said:
It's much more complex in reality. Were the games you scored in against teams below you and / or home but not away. That will affect the statistical odds of what might happen in the next game. Not to mention will Whatmore or Assombalonga be up front.
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Yes which is why I added all other things being equal. There is an entire football betting strategy around fixed odds coupons which were published wednesday for the saturday and based on injuries etc you could make bets on saturday morning knowing more than the bookies knew on wednesday. So the bookies now reserve the right to update fixed odds coupon, b'stards
 
Alvez_48 said:
Ah yes agreed well put, I bow my head to you sir.
It's all @Laughing fault with his stoopid questions, Boro score when they want (unless they don't which is quite often.) 🤣

Also doesn't that just mean that to to derive the answer is simply %chance of first half goal = Number of games / times goal scored in first half?
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I think your right Alves x 100 though. That said I haven't covered myself in mathematical glory in these exchanges.
 
bear66 said:
No. If you're historically scored 0.85 goals per first half game but only scored in 60% of first half games. Statistically you'd have a 60% possibility of scoring a goal in the next first half of a game.
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Alvez_48 said:
Also doesn't that just mean that to to derive the answer is simply %chance of first half goal = Number of games / times goal scored in first half?
Click to expand...

You are, of course, both correct (well, your fraction is upside-down Alvez, but I'll let you off!). However, statistically, one doesn't tend to calculate it quite like that.

We usually calculate the probability of something happening as 1 minus the probability of it not happening. Why?

Well, in a one-off event, such as the first half of a single game, it wouldn't make any difference (0.6 is obviously the same as 1 - 0.4). But what if we wanted to know what was the probability of a team playing two consecutive games and scoring in the first half of at least one of them?

The team could score in Game A but not Game B, Game B but not Game A, or they could score in both Games A & B. How do we work out that probability?

The answer is by calculating the probability of them not scoring in consecutive games and subtracting that from 1 (as the sum of all possible outcomes must equal 1).

If a team has a 60% (0.6) chance of scoring in the first half, then they obviously have a 40% (0.4) chance of not scoring. The probability of them not scoring in two consecutive games would, therefore, be 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16. Therefore, the probability of the team scoring in the first half of at least one of the games is 1 - 0.16 = 0.84.
 
Billy Horner said:
You are, of course, both correct (well, your fraction is upside-down Alvez, but I'll let you off!). However, statistically, one doesn't tend to calculate it quite like that.

We usually calculate the probability of something happening as 1 minus the probability of it not happening. Why?

Well, in a one-off event, such as the first half of a single game, it wouldn't make any difference (0.6 is obviously the same as 1 - 0.4). But what if we wanted to know what was the probability of a team playing two consecutive games and scoring in the first half of at least one of them?

The team could score in Game A but not Game B, Game B but not Game A, or they could score in both Games A & B. How do we work out that probability?

The answer is by calculating the probability of them not scoring in consecutive games and subtracting that from 1 (as the sum of all possible outcomes must equal 1).

If a team has a 60% (0.6) chance of scoring in the first half, then they obviously have a 40% (0.4) chance of not scoring. The probability of them not scoring in two consecutive games would, therefore, be 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16. Therefore, the probability of the team scoring in the first half of at least one of the games is 1 - 0.16 = 0.84.
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Cheers Billy, stats should be easy as it's just the 4 basic calculations +,-, * and /. It's the theory bit that bamboozles me. It is such a good tool so I may go and learn statistics. I do vaguely recall in Uni helping some social studies students to use SSP (I think thats what it was called) which is a stats package. I didn't have to know how to calculate stuff, just how to use a spreadsheet.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 18,447 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 21,502
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.9% to 18,023 per day, following 5.0% increase yesterday (and 7th increase in the past 8 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 19.1% higher than one week ago (from 24.0% higher yesterday) and 18.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 10.5% higher yesterday and 25.8% lower 7 days ago)
• 144 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 519 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 2.9% to 420 per day, following 4.2% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 2.0% lower than one week ago (from 1.4% higher yesterday) and 8.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 11.1% lower yesterday and 2.9% lower 7 days ago)
 
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