The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
Tier 2s which is essentially not locked down.. I'm hoping it was the school surge which is now peaking. Might be wrong.
That said we should have opened schools in summer when we were generally healthier
It’s a logical theory that education has accelerated this, I hope this is the reason for it
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Tier 2s which is essentially not locked down.. I'm hoping it was the school surge which is now peaking. Might be wrong.
That said we should have opened schools in summer when we were generally healthier
That it's actually a very good idea Alvez. To late but why didn't someone else suggest this back in June. I don't mean you but educational decision makers
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
That it's actually a very good idea Alvez. To late but why didn't someone else suggest this back in June. I don't mean you but educational decision makers
Cos the Tories are ****... Also the whole teachers union spat.

To roll back to those heady July days. 🤣

It's such a **** year innit it's like we've stood still and yet it's flying down the line.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Even taking the death data at face value I don't think we will Billy Bob I may be wrong but the trend data for cases looks like it's peaking:-

View attachment 7565 View attachment 7566

I guess it might get to 200 but it's heading into winter so we should expect more deaths. I'm hoping it doesn't go wild in November and December View attachment 7569
That's the problem with using data by specimen date. It does give you a more accurate picture over the medium-to-long term, but because there's a timelag you pretty much have to ignore at least the latest four days' data (mainly because we're so useless at turning test results around).

If you look at the difference between one day's figures for the previous 4/5 days and compare them with those published 24 hours later, you would see that the previous day's numbers increase by about 8-fold, the day before that by just under 3-fold, the day before that practically doubles and the two days before that increase by around 10-25% each. If you then consider that yesterday's numbers will undergo each of these transitions over the 5-day period, you can see that the most recently published figures are unrecognisable within fairly short order.

That said, it may possibly be the case that there is the beginning of a downward trend in these cities. Whether that actually is the case, whether that trend then sustains and whether those individual cities are representative of the rest of the country are complete unknowns of course.
 
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Alvez_48

Well-known member
That's the problem with using data by specimen date. It does give you a more accurate picture over the medium-to-long term, but because there's a timelag you pretty much have to ignore at least the latest four days' data (mainly because we're so useless at turning test results around).

If you look at the difference between one day's figures for the previous 4/5 days and compare them with those published 24 hours later, you would see that the previous day's numbers increase by about 10-fold, the day before that by around 3-fold, the day before that practically doubles and the two days before that increase by around 10-25% each. If you then consider that yesterday's numbers will undergo each of these transitions over the 5-day period, you can see that the most recently published figures are unrecognisable within fairly short order.

That said, it may be the case that there is the beginning of a downward trend in these cities. Whether that actually is the case, whether that trend then sustains and whether those individual cities are representative of the rest of the country are complete unknowns of course.
The other problem is of course you don't know if the government are going to find a few tens of thousands of cases behind the sofa on any given day.
 
The other problem is of course you don't know if the government are going to find a few tens of thousands of cases behind the sofa on any given day.
That’s a good point. They would be better just giving us the hospital admission statistics because the number of cases seems to be an unreliable indicator of anything really. I suspect the hospital figures don’t appear large enough to make a political argument, they seem to like presenting big numbers.
 

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
That’s a good point. They would be better just giving us the hospital admission statistics because the number of cases seems to be an unreliable indicator of anything really. I suspect the hospital figures don’t appear large enough to make a political argument, they seem to like presenting big numbers.
Hospital admissions are rising and still rising. I would say 5000 in hospital is a big number
 

bear66

Well-known member
That’s a good point. They would be better just giving us the hospital admission statistics because the number of cases seems to be an unreliable indicator of anything really. I suspect the hospital figures don’t appear large enough to make a political argument, they seem to like presenting big numbers.
The hospital admissions figure was probably the worst figure today. The highest admissions since 15 May. We're going backwards (in a bad way) far too quickly.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
Ye it's really important to remember that we're heading into the season bear... Just think how many times in the past 10 years that we've had the NHS at breaking point during flu season.

We also have to remember that you get admitted and let out the same day it's still an admission.
 

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
Ye it's really important to remember that we're heading into the season bear... Just think how many times in the past 10 years that we've had the NHS at breaking point during flu season.

We also have to remember that you get admitted and let out the same day it's still an admission.
Bed occupancy and icu beds are on the up too even if people are going home on the same day
.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Ye it's really important to remember that we're heading into the season bear... Just think how many times in the past 10 years that we've had the NHS at breaking point during flu season.

We also have to remember that you get admitted and let out the same day it's still an admission.
That's not right. You said that once before. If you are admitted and leave the same day, you wouldn't be counted.

Hopefully general social distancing will dramatically reduce flu numbers as it is less contagious than SARS2.
 
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