The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66 said:
But you have total belief in a paper that was highly discredited and had to be changed and based, in some cases, on just 500 localised sereology tests and methods of counting that will be done in a similar way to the UK?

The WHO link I put up has refers to countrywide data in the range 0.5% to 1% IFR. We are at that higher end of the range.
Click to expand...

No I have belief that a peer reviewed and accepted paper is likely more accurate than the W.H.O and that just maybe as has already been found out our arbitrary way of counting deaths is likely wrong.

Maybe it's our genetics or its just the Tories being ****. I am open to the idea of being wrong but take the W.H.O for instance.. when they say something like lockdowns should not be used people like you bear ignore that or dismiss it. When they say the opposite you are all over it and that's the point, they are an organisation that are at best conflicted. The head of the W.H.O has a very murky past and the way they are structured is opaque and rife for abuse.

That said I believe you want the best for people and I hope you believe I want the best for people too and ultimately we can disagree because we aren't making the decisions. Same goes for you @Laughing
 
Last edited:
Alvez_48 said:
No I have belief that a peer reviewed and accepted paper is likely more accurate than the w.h.o and that just maybe as has already been found out our arbitrary way of counting deaths is likely wrong.

Maybe it's our genetics or its just the Tories being ****
Click to expand...

Looking at the graph, the England appears to fit in at an IFR of about 1%

Screenshot_20201015_120838.jpg

What surprised me was the IFR for under 70s in England at 0.27% (0.22% corrected)

Screenshot_20201015_121223.jpg
 
Alvez_48 said:
My issue is that, more evidence is provided.. your opinion doesn't change.
More evidence.. no change, ad inflinitum.
You claim your way is safe because the what if... Well we can see the very real damage that your way is doing to everything from the justice system, healthcare, jobs, politics.

Just today the government are passing new legislation that makes it legal for many state functions to commit crime including murder but it's just about the 250,000 (at least we've climbed down from 500,000) what it's. A position which has been shown to be massively flawed.
Click to expand...
Your comments pre-suppose that I have done no research of my own. You are coming across as very arrogant Alvez.
 
Alvez_48 said:
No I have belief that a peer reviewed and accepted paper is likely more accurate than the W.H.O and that just maybe as has already been found out our arbitrary way of counting deaths is likely wrong.

Maybe it's our genetics or its just the Tories being ****. I am open to the idea of being wrong but take the W.H.O for instance.. when they say something like lockdowns should not be used people like you bear ignore that or dismiss it. When they say the opposite you are all over it and that's the point, they are an organisation that are at best conflicted. The head of the W.H.O has a very murky past and the way they are structured is opaque and rife for abuse.

That said I believe you want the best for people and I hope you believe I want the best for people too and ultimately we can disagree because we aren't making the decisions. Same goes for you @Laughing
Click to expand...
The closest to a lockdown was in March and April and even then I could leave the house to exercise, buy food etc. There has been no lockdown since and there is unlikely to be. I do believe 'encouragement' to social distance and not congregate in potential disease spreading surroundings make sense, as well as encoraging people not to be potential disease spreaders. At least we haven't been given guidelines not to organise or attend weddings or funerals as they have in Sweden!

I wasn't against schools returning for the greater good but university attendance was unnecessary (for educational reasons) other than where practical tuition is essential.

I don't question your motives but I do believe the 'science' is still very much not understood and that, at times, scientific judgements need to be made on limited information. In that regard, I sit on the cautious side of the fence.
 
bear66 said:
The closest to a lockdown was in March and April and even then I could leave the house to exercise, buy food etc. There has been no lockdown since and there is unlikely to be. I do believe 'encouragement' to social distance and not congregate in potential disease spreading surroundings make sense, as well as encoraging people not to be potential disease spreaders. At least we haven't been given guidelines not to organise or attend weddings or funerals as they have in Sweden!

I wasn't against schools returning for the greater good but university attendance was unnecessary (for educational reasons) other than where practical tuition is essential.

I don't question your motives but I do believe the 'science' is still very much not understood and that, at times, scientific judgements need to be made on limited information. In that regard, I sit on the cautious side of the fence.
Click to expand...

I’m at university right now and it is absolutely ridiculous. They brought us to the accommodation under some notion of ‘blended learning’. Then to be told a few days before we arrive I’m in only 2 hours a week. If people knew that we would have stayed at home and there wouldn’t be huge outbreaks in university areas.
 
BoroJake said:
I’m at university right now and it is absolutely ridiculous. They brought us to the accommodation under some notion of ‘blended learning’. Then to be told a few days before we arrive I’m in only 2 hours a week. If people knew that we would have stayed at home and there wouldn’t be huge outbreaks in university areas.
Click to expand...
Sounds like the rest of your term is going to be a disaster with two weeks quarantine before Christmas. Hope things get better for you in the New Year.
 
BoroJake said:
I’m at university right now and it is absolutely ridiculous. They brought us to the accommodation under some notion of ‘blended learning’. Then to be told a few days before we arrive I’m in only 2 hours a week. If people knew that we would have stayed at home and there wouldn’t be huge outbreaks in university areas.
Click to expand...

It sucks what's happening to you guys Jake, hope you at least get to get some of that tuition fee back but keep at it mate, the degree will be worth it. 👍🏻
 
Alvez_48 said:
It sucks what's happening to you guys Jake, hope you at least get to get some of that tuition fee back but keep at it mate, the degree will be worth it. 👍🏻
Click to expand...
Not a chance by the looks of it. Government seems not to want to reduce tuition fees and universities don’t want to refund accommodation fees so everybody is given an hour or two on campus a week so that those that don’t live nearby are stuck here
 
BoroJake, I do feel for you mate, Uni is supposed to be drinking, debauchery, drug experimentation and a little bit of learning thrown in, when you are not too hung over to understand it. Instead you guys get charged 9 grand for what.

An interesting fact, CERN is funded by a treaty signed after the war where every country gives a % of their GDP. The idea was to stop scientists making bombs and do stuff for the good of humanity. CERN's budget is about a billion per year and they built the LHC. Your average Uni has a budget of about a billion a year and they can't be bothered to teach. Uni's are big business that's why they are open and that is why you won't get a fee reduction.

Stick at it though Jake, you will need a decent job to pay back loans mate!
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 18,980 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 19,724
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.3% to 15,973 per day, following 5.3% decrease yesterday (and 44th increase in the past 47 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 10.0% higher than one week ago (from 21.3% higher yesterday) and 155.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 153.5% higher yesterday and 192.5% higher 7 days ago)
• 138 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, virtually unchanged from 137 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 9.5% to 100 per day, following 11.7% increase yesterday (and 28th increase in the past 30 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 79.7% higher than one week ago (from 72.0% higher yesterday) and 133.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 127.8% higher yesterday and 98.0% higher 7 days ago)
 
7-day average for new deaths hits 100 per day for the first time since 15th June.

Incidentally, I've seen some discussion this week about how Patrick Vallance had 'predicted' 49,000 cases per day by this point and that he was, therefore, wrong and scaremongering. Putting to one side the fact that he clearly stated it was an illustration of what might happen and not a prediction, the current data suggest we will hit that number in around 18 days' time.

What I've seen less discussion about is his other 'prediction' that we would begin to see around 200 deaths per day by mid-November. He appears to be wrong about that too. We are on track to begin to hit that grim milestone next week.
 
Even taking the death data at face value I don't think we will Billy Bob I may be wrong but the trend data for cases looks like it's peaking:-

IMG_20201015_181952.jpgIMG_20201015_181913.jpg

I guess it might get to 200 but it's heading into winter so we should expect more deaths. I'm hoping it doesn't go wild in November and DecemberIMG_20201015_182422.jpg
 
Billy Horner said:
7-day average for new deaths hits 100 per day for the first time since 15th June.

Incidentally, I've seen some discussion this week about how Patrick Vallance had 'predicted' 49,000 cases per day by this point and that he was, therefore, wrong and scaremongering. Putting to one side the fact that he clearly stated it was an illustration of what might happen and not a prediction, the current data suggest we will hit that number in around 18 days' time.

What I've seen less discussion about is his other 'prediction' that we would begin to see around 200 deaths per day by mid-November. He appears to be wrong about that too. We are on track to begin to hit that grim milestone next week.
Click to expand...


Alvez_48 said:
Even taking the death data at face value I don't think we will Billy Bob I may be wrong but the trend data for cases looks like it's peaking:-

View attachment 7565View attachment 7566

I guess it might get to 200 but it's heading into winter so we should expect more deaths. I'm hoping it doesn't go wild in November and DecemberView attachment 7569
Click to expand...


hospital admissions, cases And deaths are all still rising.

I don’t think we can take data from 2 cities and conclude that’s it we’ve hit the worse.

I would actually expect deaths to hit over 300 within 18 days based on current hospital admissions
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top