Opinium has Labour 8 points ahead
- Thread starter TeessideCleveland
- Start date
Andy_W
Well-known member
Nah, I'm not (or I shouldn't have) I'm saying where we are now is good enough, as we have a massive lead, but if that gets eroded then it's because something's changed in the middle, probably from the right-hand side.
Probably won't need a shift to the right, I was wrong saying that, but we would need to secure those slightly right centre votes, and not risk losing them.
I don't agree he's done that, not to the scale you're implying anyway, but would be happy to read up more on that if you've got some examples. If it's been done purely on race or gender then I'll be just as annoyed as you.
But a mathematical/ tactical reason would be looking at it from a political compass standpoint, assuming MP's stance is a reflection of voters, it would be because losing one from the left and gaining one at the right from the Tories is a net win of +1. It doesn't matter what race or gender they are (or it shouldn't), the issue is the political compass and where that line is near the centre, which you need to grab to win. Just because they might be Black/ White/ Jewish or Asian it makes no difference, none should be free from the overall objective of winning the election and should support the section of the compass that Labour want to target. Clearly, the area they're targeting at the minute has massive public support, hence why they have the largest lead in a decade.
If any of the further left MP's have been ousted, in favour of those more central, then the chances are they're going to get a lot more of what they actually wanted, than if they actually had a seat themselves. The seat they would have occupied would have possibly always been on the opposition bench, not the bench which had control and could actually do some good. I wish it wasn't like that, but there's only so much of the spectrum you can appeal too, and still secure a win, as the country has a lot of selfish nutters. Taking 7/10 is better than aiming for 10/10 and getting 0/10.
SmallTown
Well-known member
Would be ironic wouldn't it, if that was the brexit benefit!
festa5
Well-known member
Not sure if you're missing the joke or I am?Yes because I read the news and they’ve confirmed that ‘help is on the way’
So that 6 poll lead will probably have vanished within a fortnight
It’s either a windfall tax or a cap on prices. Maybe both
Either way Tories promising anything in no way shape or form means they have "a plan". Badly thought out, back of a fag packet ideas are more their forte.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I can hear a tiny violin playing
It might end up being a medium price to pay, if we can get rid of those clowns for maybe 10 years, as that might be enough time for the political spectrum to shift over more to the left as the younger folk become more numerous than old Tories.
I actually I think I would be willing to sacrifice 10% of growth (compared to the big players in the EU/ G7), if we can get a better country out of it, as in diverting some resources and tax to those who actually need them, and make a start on narrowing this gap between the top 2% and the rest.
It's something I've actually never even considered, it could be the Tory version of Icarus, except their version, is chasing an impossible unicorn which ultimately sets them on fire.
Muttley
Well-known member
Mate, that's a marching band and they're getting closer!I can hear a tiny violin playing
Lefty
Well-known member
Yes, there is always the short term memory factor. People will revert to type if an issue goes away.
However I think most people have now seen so much for so long, that they have formed an opinion and, in fact, made a decision on the Conservatives. Once that happens, it is much harder to change peoples minds. People are capable of remarkable feats of self deception, prepared to give the benefit of the doubt if it allows them to avoid cognitive dissonance issues.
I think for most, we are long past that. There is no doubt to give the benefit to, these people are liars, corrupt, incompetent and self serving. Once the mind is made up on that, you're fighting against cognitive dissonance. All that can save them is Labour imploding or making massive mistakes.
Redwurzel
Well-known member
I don't think its as much as left and right with the Labour party. Its being able to appeal to a wider group of people. Blair brought different groups together, young and old, North and South, Prosperous areas and non prosperous areas, woke and traditional, English and non English. To me parts of the UK don't feel loved by the Labour Party that used to be loved.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Last week my address wouldn't workLabours accounts for 2021 were released this week:
Labour lost 91,000 members last year, new accounts show
The party also ended 2021 with a deficit of more than £5 million, driven by staff redundancies and a drop in income from membership fees.www.independent.co.uk
How can Labour be expected to win a general election when it's haemorrhaging money and members?
Campaigns are expensive and voters need to be able to trust the party with the economyinews.co.uk
This week the payment system doesn't work
There's no contact information for web issues and they don't reply to social media DM's
Andy_W
Well-known member
I think it's somehow worked now, I got a welcome e-mail, but the payment didn't work.I would say ‘welcome to the Labour party’ but it doesn’t sound like you’ve joined. Not that I’m still a member
Sacked Labour MP Sam Tarry faces reselection battle before party conference
Supporters of former shadow transport minister who joined RMT picket lines says process fast-tracked out of ‘revenge’www.theguardian.com
The party definitely looks to be moving to the right
I hope this isn't a reflection of what is to come
I don't think it's gone right, in a way that they've never been in power when they've focused on the left, since I've been alive. I think it's just paying more attention to the centre/ more tactical.
A two-party race has to take some of the middle ground to win, it's been that way forever, and has to be that way. I'm definitely left of centre, very left in some instances and probably quite central in others, but I realise there will be many others to the right of me, and there's a certain amount of them we need to win. For every two on the far left who ditch labour (who likely won't go and vote Tory), we would need to turn one who voted Tory in the last election, but many of them will have been Labour voters previously, they should be easy pickings now. The Tories will try and retain these, of course, but I don't think it will work.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
I’ve heard that liz truss are already eroded her new pm bounce 
swordtrombonefish
Well-known member
The Pork Minister will be less popular at the start of her tenure than most PMs are at the end of theirsI’ve heard that liz truss are already eroded her new pm bounce
BoroMart
Well-known member
She's far too dim, there will be a negligible bounce at best
BoroMart
Well-known member
when people start freezing in winter, and Truss tells everyone to jog to keep warm, then the tories will become a marginalised party
BoroMart
Well-known member
all depends what happens this winter, if it's bad, then the tories will be absolutely toxic. Of course Labour can win a majority
BoroFur
Well-known member
They don't need to. They can be the largest party and still run a minority government. No other party will team up with the Tories.
Lefty
Well-known member
Will Truss even get to the next GE as PM?
Most of the MP's prefer Sunak. It won't take much for the letters to start going in.
The Tories only care about power. As situations worsen and polls get worse all they will then need to look for is incompetence and inaction - two things she is well known to excel at - and that is the excuse they need. Plus, with another GE looming, they will be desperate for any kind of bounce they might get. Expect to see most spending the next 18 months lining up jobs in the private sector. Keep an eye on the contracts that are dished out.
Most of the MP's prefer Sunak. It won't take much for the letters to start going in.
The Tories only care about power. As situations worsen and polls get worse all they will then need to look for is incompetence and inaction - two things she is well known to excel at - and that is the excuse they need. Plus, with another GE looming, they will be desperate for any kind of bounce they might get. Expect to see most spending the next 18 months lining up jobs in the private sector. Keep an eye on the contracts that are dished out.