Opinium has Labour 8 points ahead

If Labour are 8 points ahead, they should take all the Teesside area seats - Do the posters living in those seats think that would happen if there was an election this Autumn?

Redcar
Middlesbrough SE and East Cleveland
Stockton South
Hartlepool
Darlington
Sedgefield

Were they all Labour seats in 2005?
 
Too early to read too much into it.

The RWM haven't even started their USA-esque grotesque lies and smear campaigns against prominent Labour MPs so that has to be factored in.

I'm hoping (🙄🙄) Starmer is being smart and is sitting on the fence being very beige about everything so when the campaigning starts in 2024 the RWM do not have anything major to take him down with. I do have my doubts about this, and there is still a pretty good probability he's just a bit of a knacker.
 
h_m_boro said:
Too early to read too much into it.

The RWM haven't even started their USA-esque grotesque lies and smear campaigns against prominent Labour MPs so that has to be factored in.

I'm hoping (🙄🙄) Starmer is being smart and is sitting on the fence being very beige about everything so when the campaigning starts in 2024 the RWM do not have anything major to take him down with. I do have my doubts about this, and there is still a pretty good probability he's just a bit of a knacker.
Click to expand...

I think life will be so bad for the average Brit in 2 years time that Labour will romp it anyway. Truss won't be able to do anything much to help the cost of living and she will be tied to ploughing on with the hard Brexit. The ERG will have her in their pocket.

Sadly we got the Government we deserved and we are all suffering but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
 
viv_andersons_nana said:
Any other NONE OF THESE would be 20 points ahead.
Click to expand...
They wouldn't, as the chance of a Tory other would be no better, so you're left with a Labour other option, and if they're like historical choices they would be more likely to be further behind. The only other Labour leader who has had such a lead is Blair, who a lot of the left complain about.

The only real way to be further ahead would be by being more to the right, and hoovering up more of the tory share, and losing the far left. I.e, to get 5 points you would need to take 3% tories and gain all of those to Labour, and no other party. There's no point doing this if you're already ahead, it's just giving up ground to the right, which is unnecessary.

Going further left just retains or gains people who won't vote tory anyway, and inevitably loses centrists to the tories which puts you down 1 and the tories up 1, which is doubly bad. No point in gaining 1% (who you could get a coalition with anyway) and losing 2% to the polar opposite, it's worse.

It's hard to cast a net wider to the left and to the right, and each of those sides probably wouldn't want those other ends of the spectrum, i.e to get people further right they're going to be reluctant as it is, sand they would be even more reluctant with Labour appealing more left. It's also hard to do all of this when not in power, and not near an election unless you come up with a load of policies, but then they can become media targets for 2.5 years, so could get chipped away at.

The balance is good for now, it's a good lead, better than anyone should have expected after the result of the last GE which was only 2.5 years ago, and was a 165-seat deficit.
 
Andy_W said:
They wouldn't, as the chance of a Tory other would be no better, so you're left with a Labour other option, and if they're like historical choices they would be more likely to be further behind.

The only real way to be further ahead would be by being more to the right, and hoovering up more of the tory share, and losing the far left. I.e, to get 5 points you would need to take 3% tories and gain all of those to Labour, and no other party. There's no point doing this if you're already ahead, it's just giving up ground to the right, which is unnecessary.

Going further left just retains or gains people who won't vote tory anyway, and inevitably loses centrists to the tories which puts you down 1 and the tories up 1, which is doubly bad. No point in gaining 1% (who you could get a coalition with anyway) and losing 2% to the polar opposite, it's worse.

It's hard to cast a net wider to the left and to the right, and each of those sides probably wouldn't want those other ends of the spectrum, i.e to get people further right they're going to be reluctant as it is, sand they would be even more reluctant with Labour appealing more left. It's also hard to do all of this when not in power, and not near an election unless you come up with a load of policies, but then they can become media targets for 2.5 years, so could get chipped away at.
Click to expand...
The point was that ‘none of these’ is the most popular choice, which speaks volumes about about what the main two parties are offering. Particularly during a time of national crisis.
 
viv_andersons_nana said:
The point was that ‘none of these’ is the most popular choice, which speaks volumes about about what the main two parties are offering. Particularly during a time of national crisis.
Click to expand...
You're always going to get a "none" of these, 33% of people don't vote and of those who do vote only 80% vote Labour or Tory.

Then you've also got those who do vote for those parties, but who don't live in the real world, so always want a leader to change.

80% of the Labour/ Tory voters, amongst that 67% who do actually vote gives you 54%, which is pretty much the exact sum of the Labour or Tory options here.
 
Last edited:
Lefty said:
Would even Jesus be much farther ahead if he was standing?
Click to expand...
You would assume he would hoover up the jewish vote. A 20pt poll lead is unheard of, I would think. Did a quick google and I can't find the answer to that. In any event people claiming Labour should be 20pt ahead are a bit out of touch with the tory strongholds.
 
Laughing said:
You would assume he would hoover up the jewish vote. A 20pt poll lead is unheard of, I would think. Did a quick google and I can't find the answer to that. In any event people claiming Labour should be 20pt ahead are a bit out of touch with the tory strongholds.
Click to expand...
Wasn’t he highly critical of the Jewish state, and a good socialist too? No chance that he would have been voted in. At least that’s how’s he is portrayed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top