Opinium has Labour 8 points ahead

BlindBoyGrunt said:
I don't dispute that, but it does indicate that with this labour leader against this government a healthy lead should be expected and not seen as exceptional.
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Yes, and Labour didn't have a lead against BJ or May, before Starmer came in, they were 15% behind (and averaged about -5-10% for the previous 4 years). BJ was extremely poor and May clearly wasn't wanted by the Tories or the rising far right, and yet they still voted for her (enough of them at least),V poor labour polling, and results.

It's fair enough expecting to have a lead, but you still need to actually do it. If even if we swapped out Starmer, we would still need someone in appealing to the centre to win, so hypothetically he shouldn't be replaced with anyone further "left" to get that win, and might even need to go further right if the Tories got some good news, or it runs the risk of the vote being closer. Asking for a bigger win, is taking more from the Tories, not gaining at the left.
 
I did not expect Labour to be so far ahead in the polls this month due to the wall to wall coverage of the Tory leadership race.

They are polling Tory members with Boris Johnson leading on who should be the next leader by a mile. I certainly would not rule out an attempt by the Tories to shoehorn him onto the final ballot.
 
What is the longest it could be without a general election? As I think the Conservatives will try go as long as possible without calling one and just hope the country is in a better place.
I know it has been done previously but I really can't see how a PM can get the full support and have any real legitimate hold over the party and general population without a general election.
 
Druss_The_Legend said:
What is the longest it could be without a general election? As I think the Conservatives will try go as long as possible without calling one and just hope the country is in a better place.
I know it has been done previously but I really can't see how a PM can get the full support and have any real legitimate hold over the party and general population without a general election.
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5 years.
 
www.theguardian.com

Liz Truss’s arrival in No 10 ‘could deliver Tories a big bounce in polls’

Exclusive: leaked Labour analysis says foreign secretary could revive party’s fortunes – but effect may be short-lived
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

This seems absolutely bonkers to me. Labour analysts think the new manager bounce will put Truss level with them in the polls?! But at the minute the polls show most people think she's the idiot that she is. How does her becoming PM change that?

Obviously why I'm not a political analyst.
 
festa5 said:
www.theguardian.com

Liz Truss’s arrival in No 10 ‘could deliver Tories a big bounce in polls’

Exclusive: leaked Labour analysis says foreign secretary could revive party’s fortunes – but effect may be short-lived
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

This seems absolutely bonkers to me. Labour analysts think the new manager bounce will put Truss level with them in the polls?! But at the minute the polls show most people think she's the idiot that she is. How does her becoming PM change that?

Obviously why I'm not a political analyst.
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That's what I was thinking as well.

I'm sure she can't be as stupid as she sounds but...

Truss sounds so thick and weird when she speaks that I can't see how giving her a platform as PM is going to boost her popularity?
 
Chris_Boro said:
I did not expect Labour to be so far ahead in the polls this month due to the wall to wall coverage of the Tory leadership race.

They are polling Tory members with Boris Johnson leading on who should be the next leader by a mile. I certainly would not rule out an attempt by the Tories to shoehorn him onto the final ballot.
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It's good they're sabotaging their own party, BJ is the reason they're in this mess, if they want to get him back in then great, and I'll bet half my savings on them not getting a majority in the next election.

The best chance the Tories have of beating Starmer is by appealing more to the centre (and even the left, although they won't forgive them, and nor should they), really they should be putting in someone left of Sunak if they want to win, but instead, they've got Truss who is right of that and BJ is no different.

Tories are folding as they've tried to appease the far right of the party, I suppose like how Labour did with the Labour left for Corbyn, it won't work, the centre is far too important and in large the people in the middle just want stable growth, a working NHS, and no extremes left or right, no major **** ups helps too. If the net gets spread too wide it starts working against itself.
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
That's what I was thinking as well.

I'm sure she can't be as stupid as she sounds but...

Truss sounds so thick and weird when she speaks that I can't see how giving her a platform as PM is going to boost her popularity?
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A lot of the thinking behind it seems to be she's a bit of an unknown to the regular, not really interested in politics, punter.

that might have been true, but she's been on the front pages and in every news bulletin spouting off nonsense pretty much every single day for the past month (feels like a lot longer). How "unknown" will she really be by the time she becomes PM?
 
festa5 said:
A lot of the thinking behind it seems to be she's a bit of an unknown to the regular, not really interested in politics, punter.

that might have been true, but she's been on the front pages and in every news bulletin spouting off nonsense pretty much every single day for the past month (feels like a lot longer). How "unknown" will she really be by the time she becomes PM?
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Also, people that have no interest in politics seemed to warm to the 'Boris' character. He apparently had some kind of appeal to some????

Perhaps I'm missing it but I cannot see what is appealing about Truss? Maybe she has a sort of school mistress vibe that appeals to the 200,000 or so elderly public school boys that make up a large % of the Tory membership? Beyond that what has she got?
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
Also, people that have no interest in politics seemed to warm to the 'Boris' character. He apparently had some kind of appeal to some????

Perhaps I'm missing it but I cannot see what is appealing about Truss? Maybe she has a sort of school mistress vibe that appeals to the 200,000 or so elderly public school boys that make up a large % of the Tory membership? Beyond that what has she got?
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Some people just like to be told lies, rather than the truth.

She's going for the Thatcher look, but fails to realise that won't work on the majority of the voters, especially not after the last 12 years.
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
Also, people that have no interest in politics seemed to warm to the 'Boris' character. He apparently had some kind of appeal to some????

Perhaps I'm missing it but I cannot see what is appealing about Truss? Maybe she has a sort of school mistress vibe that appeals to the 200,000 or so elderly public school boys that make up a large % of the Tory membership? Beyond that what has she got?
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Absolutely.

Boris, like Trump, managed to fool people that he was "different" to other politicians ( to be fair he kind of was, but not in the way he was claiming). He told people what they wanted to hear and convinced enough he was on their side.

truss doesnt even seem to be attempting to do that. She's openly punching down left right and centre. As you say, that might give the tory members mini erections, but its not going to win an election (you would think!).
 
exiledinboro said:
In less than 2 weeks we will have a new prime minister

And shortly followed by whatever plan is sat their waiting to be signed off
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If they can make space for it in the Downing Street oven.

Johnson's Brexit plan has been in there for so long that it's now a petrified fossil fuel.
 
festa5 said:
www.theguardian.com

Liz Truss’s arrival in No 10 ‘could deliver Tories a big bounce in polls’

Exclusive: leaked Labour analysis says foreign secretary could revive party’s fortunes – but effect may be short-lived
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

This seems absolutely bonkers to me. Labour analysts think the new manager bounce will put Truss level with them in the polls?! But at the minute the polls show most people think she's the idiot that she is. How does her becoming PM change that?

Obviously why I'm not a political analyst.
Click to expand...

I think I get it.

First of all, any politician as PM is going to get a more positive rating than nobody being PM which is what we essentially have now. An empty chair.

Secondly, there's a big proportion of the country who won't know much about her despite the leadership contest, despite the headlines. There'll probably be a lot of people suddenly saying "give her a chance", "wait and see" type comments.

Third, of the people that do know about her expectations are so rock bottom low she won't be able to fall below them. The first few speeches she delivers inside and outside parliament will get a massively favourable coverage from the tories client journalists.

Fourthly, the tories generally have better support from men than women, so having a woman leader (against a party that have never had a woman leader) gives them an 'in' with some WI type voters.
 
Andy_W said:
If even if we swapped out Starmer, we would still need someone in appealing to the centre to win, so hypothetically he shouldn't be replaced with anyone further "left" to get that win, and might even need to go further right if the Tories got some good news, or it runs the risk of the vote being closer. Asking for a bigger win, is taking more from the Tories, not gaining at the left.
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Here you seem to be suggesting that Starmer must move Labour even further right to secure a win.
Andy_W said:
The best chance the Tories have of beating Starmer is by appealing more to the centre (and even the left,
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And here you are suggesting that the Tories must appeal to the left to secure a win.

Can you (or anybody) tell my why Starmer feels it's ok to purge Labour of Socialists and Left wing Jews and to treat his black and Asian women MP's with such contempt and negligence when trying to garner broad enough support for a win? What is he playing at?
 
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