Alvez_48
Well-known member
Oh mate I'm being civil, I can do the other if you prefer but I'm staying the right side of the admins.Aggressive.
Oh mate I'm being civil, I can do the other if you prefer but I'm staying the right side of the admins.Aggressive.
Two of those links say nothing about rises in unemployment leading to increased mortality. The last one says only that mortality increases in those who are unemployed, it doesn't say that it leads to an increase in mortality overall. If you look at the paper I linked to, it acknowledged that in a recession there is an increase in mortality in certain sectors of the population, especially those that lose their jobs, and the elderly but that in the population as a whole, multiple studies show there is a decrease.
So I think we have to say the evidence is mixed, at best.
That's what we're trying to do in Oz too, suppression, not eradication.The lockdown was never about stopping the spread - it was about keeping it at levels the NHS could manage, and a more even distribution over a period of time rather than a very early spike that hospitals couldn't have coped with. To that extent, it's been successful
Did I call you aggressive when you said I was talking sh*t?Oh mate I'm being civil, I can do the other if you prefer but I'm staying the right side of the admins.
What the **** are you on about? How have you come to that conclusion? You don't know anything about me. What I do know though is I wake up every morning, have a shower, then today, for the 50th time I explain to my young kids that they can't go and see their granddad's and nannas because the big boss man with the silly yellow hair won't let us.Well ... except the ones who are dying.
You really don't like old people do you. They just don't register on your radar as actual lives.
That's what we're trying to do in Oz too, suppression, not eradication.
That's still our strategy, but 2 of the 6 states have only had one case each over the past week. South Australia currently has 3 cases and closed borders with mandatory, guarded, two week isolation for anyone entering the state.
Sorry for the comment. You're right I don't know you. I apologise unreservedly.What the **** are you on about? How have you come to that conclusion? You don't know anything about me. What I do know though is I wake up every morning, have a shower, then today, for the 50th time I explain to my young kids that they can't go and see their granddad's and nannas because the big boss man with the silly yellow hair won't let us.
Newsflash for you aswell, people die. People died before this crisis and people will die afterwards. Extra people have died yes, but answer me this oh great judgemental one, why is is perfectly fine to go to a DIY shop, a supermarket, ride a bike 50 miles a day, but I can't go see my parents for the in laws because I MIGHT be carrying a virus that MIGHT make somebody poorly that MIGHT send them to a hospital where they will RARELY die.
But it's fine because I'll have no issue climbing over you to reach the top of the pile to collect the food to feed my family because the likes of you want to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is found. Say your scenario plays out and we stay locked down and cut off from the world until a vaccine is found how long do you envision that happening? They still haven't found a vaccine for the common cold which is a coronavirus and they've been trying to find one for decades. What do you think will happen when they tell us after 12 months they haven't got a vaccine? What about after 24 months? How are we funding the NHS after 12 months been locked down when people's taxes pay for it?
Do I hate old people? No. Do I hate the fact that I'm 35 years old, my kids are 4 and 1 and we are prisoners in our own homes because of a virus that is killing less than 1% of the population of the world? Yes.
Famine kills more every day.
Suicides kill more every day.
Diabetes kills more people every day.
Mosquitoes kill more people everyday than those in the UK
So don't pretend to know who or what I'm about, if you want to stay in your little bubble of safety that's absolutely fine, I won't begrudge you that. But some of us want to get back to work and get back to doing what the human race has done and will continue to do for thousands of years, live and love life.
They have done superbly but Vietnam, Taiwan, south korea, Japan all have very different physiological / genetic make up compared to Europeans are in a completely different part of the world and have completely different diets..
They have also taken different approaches but good science would note that this does not prove nor disprove causation or correlation.
You don't like good science though @bear66 you prefer the Ferguson approach
Just an update on unidentified cases in the community here in Australia.
The Premier of the State of Victoria has just announced that after 150,000 tests in the community (not people presenting with symptoms, just random members of the community) they identified 20 new cases.
So, while it may well be very different in the UK, here in Australia there is not widespread unidentified community infection.
Go on then, I'll bite. What is the 'Ferguson approach' Alvez?
The amount I write on this board (mostly the old board) about Ferguson is getting silly. I just get very frustrated when science is mis-represented for political means (maybe that's not what you are meaning Alvez but many have). Maybe then we can get into Imperial's (and others) modelling estimating the percentage of populations infected. It has been fitting pretty well with serological studies down so far in places in the US, Netherlands, Germany.
As for this whole 'seasonality' debate. Seriously? Manaus, Brazil. Have a look at what is happening there and then check out where in the world it is and what the temperature is..... I'll save you the bother..... just south of the equator, very steady temperature in the mid 20's to 30 degrees C.
There is legitimate debate to be had about the best approach in this virus but it is difficult to even get onto that when so much mis-information is around, including comparisons with 'the flu' and poor CFRs/IFR comparisons between 'the flu' and Sars-Cov-2. This is not the flu.
Bit of a leap to go from pushing statistics about death rates being lower than they look to asking me how many deaths in Africa I'm ok with if food supply chains break down.
All lives lost to this pandemic and the knock-on effect will be unfortunate, wherever they are, but as it is a global pandemic then it won't just be the actions of the UK that will affect the final death toll.
How many deaths in this country (the one where most of us on this forum live) are you happy with Alvez? What about those you've accused of being happy being furloughed and enjoying the time off? What happens if they get sick and die because they go back to work before it's safe? What about those like yourself who have the ability to work from home? What if you have to go back to an unsafe workplace? How will your lower death figures protect you if we don't have the ability to test and identify all these people who are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms and that might be a walking death sentence to those who are susceptible to the full impact of being infected? I'll repeat it for clarity, the vast majority on here realise that we have to move on and get people back to work, but they accept that we have to do so in as safe a manner as we can.
You're in danger of pinning your flag to this idea that lockdown doesn't work, that the death rate isn't as high as it appears and that we should all get back to work to protect the global economy because it's not as deadly as 270,000+ confirmed Covid-19 deaths worldwide so far would indicate. I've very much tried to not lump you in with the likes of Trump and his cronies, but it's getting harder and harder to avoid doing so with every post you make.
Is that an official flounce?This is what I mean by the Ferguson approach:-
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
A programmer with 30 years of experience who's been at Google for 8 years has looked at the modelling used to get us in this state of fear and the coding is a nightmare.
I don't know why I bother because you won't read it, then will say it's not because of the model that we locked down (when it was widely covered in the US and here as the driving force at the time) , then finally you'll just say I'm a crank or something ridiculous.
I think I'm done with these debates, nothing can be said to change the course of what's happening and people want it to happen. I'll be absolutely fine financially and I've tried to represent those who need help to be shouted down repeatedly, I'm out.
Jombart saying that a lockdown was advised from early March :This is what I mean by the Ferguson approach:-
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
A programmer with 30 years of experience who's been at Google for 8 years has looked at the modelling used to get us in this state of fear and the coding is a nightmare.
I don't know why I bother because you won't read it, then will say it's not because of the model that we locked down (when it was widely covered in the US and here as the driving force at the time) , then finally you'll just say I'm a crank or something ridiculous.
I think I'm done with these debates, nothing can be said to change the course of what's happening and people want it to happen. I'll be absolutely fine financially and I've tried to represent those who need help to be shouted down repeatedly, I'm out.
Is that an official flounce?
Nope I'm not going to stop posting just going to not add to lockdown / Rona threads see bears post he's already saying look the model had nothing to do with lockdown because the guardian said so that's my second point covered.
Oh but well done you're my first ignored poster
Throughout this epidemic, UK-based scientists have provided independent evidence and analysis to decision makers, both in the UK and internationally. This is a huge ongoing effort by a large community working collaboratively to constantly reassess data, refine methodology, challenge assumptions, and compare and debate results in order to reach a scientifically sound consensus. They are in turn supported by a vast network of researchers and health agencies reporting data from hospitals, laboratories, care homes and communities across the world.
With the COVID-19 crisis likely to last many more months, this continuing scientific effort will play an important role for improving situation awareness and informing policies. This effort is, and will remain a collaborative one.
Signed this letter:
Dr Thibaut Jombart, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Dr Stefan Flasche, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Dr Marc Baguelin, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Prof Julia Gog, University of Cambridge
Dr Sebastian Funk, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Dr Adam Kucharski, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Prof Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Prof John Edmunds, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Dr Petra Klepac, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Dr Louise Dyson, University of Warwick
Dr Paul Birrell, Public Health England
Dr Andre Charlett, Public Health England
Dr Edwin van Leeuwen, Public Health England
Prof Daniela De Angelis, University of Cambridge
Prof Matt Keeling, University of Warwick
Dr Leon Danon, University of Exeter
Dr Rosalind Eggo, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Dr Michael Tildesley, University of Warwick
Dr Edward Hill, University of Warwick
Dr Ellen Brooks Pollock, University of Bristol
Dr Thomas Finnie, Public Health England
Dr Lorenzo Pellis, University of Manchester
Prof Karl Friston, University College London
Dr Chris Jewell, Lancaster University
Dr Thomas House, University of Manchester
Dr Nick Gent, Public Health England
Discussion can be had without getting all worked up.
Here's a new interview with Anders Tegnell. He talks about the care homes, the tricky issue of immunity (some good news really), lockdown and its effects, contact tracing and testing etc.
Worth a watch if only to see discussion in a calm and measured form.
Interesting listen.Discussion can be had without getting all worked up.
Here's a new interview with Anders Tegnell. He talks about the care homes, the tricky issue of immunity (some good news really), lockdown and its effects, contact tracing and testing etc.
Worth a watch if only to see discussion in a calm and measured form.