Alvez_48
Well-known member
Oh mate I'm being civil, I can do the other if you prefer but I'm staying the right side of the admins.Aggressive.
Meanwhile, in Sweden...
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Alvez_48
Well-known member
No the top one was about the famine and the second one about poverty in young people and the 3rd one about unemployment linked to death I even pasted the appropriate section.
That's what we're trying to do in Oz too, suppression, not eradication.
That's still our strategy, but 2 of the 6 states have only had one case each over the past week. South Australia currently has 3 cases and closed borders with mandatory, guarded, two week isolation for anyone entering the state.
Did I call you aggressive when you said I was talking sh*t?
Ok. I'll dial it back and stop inserting the word sh*t in my replies.
Please do ALL keep the discussion civil. And bear in mind that none of us actually wants to see people die/suffer, wherever you stand on covid policy.
Randy
Well-known member
What the **** are you on about? How have you come to that conclusion? You don't know anything about me. What I do know though is I wake up every morning, have a shower, then today, for the 50th time I explain to my young kids that they can't go and see their granddad's and nannas because the big boss man with the silly yellow hair won't let us.
Newsflash for you aswell, people die. People died before this crisis and people will die afterwards. Extra people have died yes, but answer me this oh great judgemental one, why is is perfectly fine to go to a DIY shop, a supermarket, ride a bike 50 miles a day, but I can't go see my parents for the in laws because I MIGHT be carrying a virus that MIGHT make somebody poorly that MIGHT send them to a hospital where they will RARELY die.
But it's fine because I'll have no issue climbing over you to reach the top of the pile to collect the food to feed my family because the likes of you want to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is found. Say your scenario plays out and we stay locked down and cut off from the world until a vaccine is found how long do you envision that happening? They still haven't found a vaccine for the common cold which is a coronavirus and they've been trying to find one for decades. What do you think will happen when they tell us after 12 months they haven't got a vaccine? What about after 24 months? How are we funding the NHS after 12 months been locked down when people's taxes pay for it?
Do I hate old people? No. Do I hate the fact that I'm 35 years old, my kids are 4 and 1 and we are prisoners in our own homes because of a virus that is killing less than 1% of the population of the world? Yes.
Famine kills more every day.
Suicides kill more every day.
Diabetes kills more people every day.
Mosquitoes kill more people everyday than those in the UK
So don't pretend to know who or what I'm about, if you want to stay in your little bubble of safety that's absolutely fine, I won't begrudge you that. But some of us want to get back to work and get back to doing what the human race has done and will continue to do for thousands of years, live and love life.
Malaguena
Well-known member
Same here in Spain - to the extent that my province (Malaga) have been stopped from progressing to the next stage of the lockdown release because there's been a very slight increase in cases over the last couple of days
Edit - for clarity, we don't have closed borders or mandatory isolation here though
In Oz, right from the word go our politicians were talking about a 3 month shutdown, after which there would be a gradual easing over the following 3 months, but retaining social distancing for 12 months.
We're now 8 weeks into the shut down and - because we've done so well at social distancing, working from home, etc - we've reduced the number of new cases dramatically, and we're now starting to open up some industries that have been shut.
Borders are still closed (except for supply chain transport) and will be until our Eastern states stop getting new cases.
We're now 8 weeks into the shut down and - because we've done so well at social distancing, working from home, etc - we've reduced the number of new cases dramatically, and we're now starting to open up some industries that have been shut.
Borders are still closed (except for supply chain transport) and will be until our Eastern states stop getting new cases.
Sorry for the comment. You're right I don't know you. I apologise unreservedly.
I guess I'm passionate about this because I don't want my old dad dying because people with 50 years of life ahead of them won't stay indoors for 2 months. Although the death rate is 1% (or even if it's 0.1%), the death rate for over 80's who catch it is something like 15%.
To answer your question, we've crushed the outbreak in Australia and we'll stay closed to the rest of the world (except for supply chain) for as long as it takes. We won't have to stay in lock down for a year or two, because we got it under control. We getting out now after 8 weeks because there are virtually no new cases. We get a case, we contact trace and end up with 50 cases before we've closed that outbreak down (nursing home in NSW). Another outbreak, 50 cases, closed down (hospital in Tasmania). Another outbreak, 50 cases, closed down (meatworks in Victoria).
People will still be free to come here, they'll just have to be in quarantine for two weeks when they do, and agree to download a tracking app.
Oh, and I wish you the best with your kids. Young kids are hard at the best of times. And yes, it's really hard them not being able to see their grandparents. I hope they're able to do Skype or Zoom calls, so they can still see them.
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Just an update on unidentified cases in the community here in Australia.
The Premier of the State of Victoria has just announced that after 150,000 tests in the community (not people presenting with symptoms, just random members of the community) they identified 20 new cases.
So, while it may well be very different in the UK, here in Australia there is not widespread unidentified community infection.
The Premier of the State of Victoria has just announced that after 150,000 tests in the community (not people presenting with symptoms, just random members of the community) they identified 20 new cases.
So, while it may well be very different in the UK, here in Australia there is not widespread unidentified community infection.
They have done superbly but Vietnam, Taiwan, south korea, Japan all have very different physiological / genetic make up compared to Europeans are in a completely different part of the world and have completely different diets..
They have also taken different approaches but good science would note that this does not prove nor disprove causation or correlation.
You don't like good science though @bear66 you prefer the Ferguson approach
Go on then, I'll bite. What is the 'Ferguson approach' Alvez?
The amount I write on this board (mostly the old board) about Ferguson is getting silly. I just get very frustrated when science is mis-represented for political means (maybe that's not what you are meaning Alvez but many have). Maybe then we can get into Imperial's (and others) modelling estimating the percentage of populations infected. It has been fitting pretty well with serological studies down so far in places in the US, Netherlands, Germany.
As for this whole 'seasonality' debate. Seriously? Manaus, Brazil. Have a look at what is happening there and then check out where in the world it is and what the temperature is..... I'll save you the bother..... just south of the equator, very steady temperature in the mid 20's to 30 degrees C.
There is legitimate debate to be had about the best approach in this virus but it is difficult to even get onto that when so much mis-information is around, including comparisons with 'the flu' and poor CFRs/IFR comparisons between 'the flu' and Sars-Cov-2. This is not the flu.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Just a question, what about people who’ve had it previously unaware?
Alvez_48
Well-known member
This is what I mean by the Ferguson approach:-
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
A programmer with 30 years of experience who's been at Google for 8 years has looked at the modelling used to get us in this state of fear and the coding is a nightmare.
I don't know why I bother because you won't read it, then will say it's not because of the model that we locked down (when it was widely covered in the US and here as the driving force at the time) , then finally you'll just say I'm a crank or something ridiculous.
I think I'm done with these debates, nothing can be said to change the course of what's happening and people want it to happen. I'll be absolutely fine financially and I've tried to represent those who need help to be shouted down repeatedly, I'm out.
hopesoboro
Well-known member
Is that an official flounce?
bear66
Well-known member
Jombart saying that a lockdown was advised from early March :
The scientific basis
The letter from the group of scientists about the amount of input going into advising the government.
Link
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Alvez_48
Well-known member
Nope I'm not going to stop posting just going to not add to lockdown / Rona threads see bears post he's already saying look the model had nothing to do with lockdown because the guardian said so that's my second point covered.
Oh but well done you're my first ignored poster
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bear66
Well-known member
Nope I'm not going to stop posting just going to not add to lockdown / Rona threads see bears post he's already saying look the model had nothing to do with lockdown because the guardian said so that's my second point covered.
Oh but well done you're my first ignored poster
Discussion can be had without getting all worked up.
Here's a new interview with Anders Tegnell. He talks about the care homes, the tricky issue of immunity (some good news really), lockdown and its effects, contact tracing and testing etc.
Worth a watch if only to see discussion in a calm and measured form.
Here's a new interview with Anders Tegnell. He talks about the care homes, the tricky issue of immunity (some good news really), lockdown and its effects, contact tracing and testing etc.
Worth a watch if only to see discussion in a calm and measured form.
DearChicago
Well-known member
I’ve really enjoyed this thread though I disagree with about 50% of what has been said. It’s been a fascinating read and sent me off to research for hours. Debate like grown ups, and accept differences in opinion without getting ***ed off.
I’m about to watch this Borolad video even though I’m very sceptical about Sweden’s approach.
bear66
Well-known member
Interesting listen.
I found the following quote of his:
" We think that up to 25% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27% of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks."
He seems to be saying that lots of Stockholm residents have contacted each other so may be immune. That's a long stretch.
Also, one Stockholm hospital had 27% immunity but it's from society not work. Another long stretch. (It would be nice to know which serology he's using as the effectiveness of testing seems to be a problem worldwide.)
He's now saying the policy is not all his so responsibility sharing is beginning.
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