Meanwhile, in Sweden...

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bear66 said:
Sweden has had very little exposure to the virus based on their recent figures. About the same as the UK based on antibody tests.
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Well.. for now its over in Sweden effectively, if we measure excess deaths for them.

Who knows in winter if it comes back they are likely (as are we) to have far less impact due to the exposure they've had till now.

Bit of advice bear stock up on your vitamin D
 
If we use exposure as a metric should every country have the same death rate on average over say a 2 year period as a % of population/ age/ gender?

What exposure are we looking for- forgive my ignorance, if you could signpost me to material I would be grateful.

It will be interesting in a few years to reflect, as I mentioned previously whether this great loss of life- especially the most vulnerable was avoidable- or whether as the exposure argument seems to suggest- inevitable.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Well.. for now its over in Sweden effectively, if we measure excess deaths for them.

Who knows in winter if it comes back they are likely (as are we) to have far less impact due to the exposure they've had till now.

Bit of advice bear stock up on your vitamin D
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Hopefully it's nearly over here as well! Getting lots of sunshine at the moment! Also vitamin K seems to be a good thing to have. Cheese and onion sandwiches are my main source of that.
 
bear66 said:
Sweden has had very little exposure to the virus based on their recent figures. About the same as the UK based on antibody tests.
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The antibody tests aren't really a useful tool are they? Not everybody who tests positive for covid-19 has antibodies for example. Even some of those hospitalised.
 
Cambsred said:
If we use exposure as a metric should every country have the same death rate on average over say a 2 year period as a % of population/ age/ gender?

What exposure are we looking for- forgive my ignorance, if you could signpost me to material I would be grateful.

It will be interesting in a few years to reflect, as I mentioned previously whether this great loss of life- especially the most vulnerable was avoidable- or whether as the exposure argument seems to suggest- inevitable.
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We should also look at the economic impact in a couple of years...
We might well be in a 'soft totalitarian' grip by then, will it have been worth it?
 
borolad259 said:
Oh Christ he's back. Mr "50 deaths a day rolling average" posted on 9th of June when there hadn't been a single day with 50 deaths since 23rd May.
There are currently no excess deaths in Sweden.

Norway, Denmark and Finland are still having to grapple with the fact that they've had very limited exposure to the virus. Just because they haven't had the deaths that Sweden has, doesn't mean they won't get them down the line.
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borolad, don't cry because I don't sing along to your Swedish tune.

So, if there's not been over 50 deaths since 23rd of May, then there's been what 30 days since then, so even if that was 30 days x 50 deaths, then that's only accounting for 1,500 of the 5,150.

Say those remaining 3,500 of those 3,650 happened from April onwards, that's about 53 days, so that's about 65 per day average back then.

If the 30 days isn't x 50, then the 65 per day average goes up. It has to, that's how numbers work.

Back then you were saying Sweden hadn't had 65 deaths per day.

Which is it?

Were they doing:
$hit before but ok now?
Ok before but $hit now?
$hit before, and a very, very, very slow recovery (I think it's this one)
Great before and great now (you seem to think it's this one)

By the way, it can't be the last one, as you have to allocate those 5,150 dead somewhere, and their numbers are dog$hit compared to their neighbours (like the UK's are). You have to multiply the numbers from Norway, Finland and Denmark by 5 to get near to Sweden, and they've got 50% more people!
 
That 5,161 from yesterday, and 5,122 the day before is now 5,209 too, so 48 + 39 deaths from somewhere.

It's up to you where you want to allocate these (either sneak them in the previous stats, or add them to the new stats), but either way, they need to be allocated somewhere.
 
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Alvez_48 said:
We should also look at the economic impact in a couple of years...
We might well be in a 'soft totalitarian' grip by then, will it have been worth it?
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I'm probably not the best person to ask. Ask someone who has developed long term disability as a consequence of the virus. Hard facts of just deaths cover up the long term impact of the condition and the nasty post viral/ post intensive care/ post ARDS / post deconditioning world.

I understand the economy argument and potential impact on liberties, but I do think the impact of death and disability that could have been prevented- and I believe it could have been will be looked at as criminal in the not too distant future. And I hope the second wave does not come, although believe with our control measures and opening up that this will happen as the virus ticks along until it explodes again. (I think it will sooner rather than later).

I do hope I am wrong. I do hope opening up works out for the best. I do hope that if a second wave does hit us, about the time we leave Europe, that we do not have to start again because we delayed lockdown and expedited opening up in wave one.
 
Cambsred said:
I'm probably not the best person to ask. Ask someone who has developed long term disability as a consequence of the virus. Hard facts of just deaths cover up the long term impact of the condition and the nasty post viral/ post intensive care/ post ARDS / post deconditioning world.

I understand the economy argument and potential impact on liberties, but I do think the impact of death and disability that could have been prevented- and I believe it could have been will be looked at as criminal in the not too distant future. And I hope the second wave does not come, although believe with our control measures and opening up that this will happen as the virus ticks along until it explodes again. (I think it will sooner rather than later).

I do hope I am wrong. I do hope opening up works out for the best. I do hope that if a second wave does hit us, about the time we leave Europe, that we do not have to start again because we delayed lockdown and expedited opening up in wave one.
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20200624_162922.png

(Taken from twitter)
 
kuepper said:
Which brexiteer's twitter a/c is that from? Funny how it was 'the people' who basically introduced the lockdown in the first place as a reaction to Johnson and Cummings' herd immunity cull policy.
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It was on a hashtag thread about lockdown. Couldn't tell you.
 
Deaths per capita: Belgium, UK, Spain, italy then Sweden in 5th. That is hardly a resounding success and advocation of zero lockdown. When you see that the 4 countries with higher per capita deaths have a higher population density then it doesn't look great.
 
Cambsred said:
The government are orchestrating the return to normal. I am not sure the people are driving it currently. I agree, the longer it goes on, the more kick back would be evident.

Lets hope we have the infrastructure to control the people and their decisions.
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I disagree. Businesses and the sections of society that can see everything slipping away that they've worked ever so hard for wether that be losing businesses, jobs and even homes.

Businesses forced the government into the official 'lockdown' the week before it was announced.

The government will also not be able to put the full country into lockdown again.
 
Cambsred said:
I'm probably not the best person to ask. Ask someone who has developed long term disability as a consequence of the virus. Hard facts of just deaths cover up the long term impact of the condition and the nasty post viral/ post intensive care/ post ARDS / post deconditioning world.

I understand the economy argument and potential impact on liberties, but I do think the impact of death and disability that could have been prevented- and I believe it could have been will be looked at as criminal in the not too distant future. And I hope the second wave does not come, although believe with our control measures and opening up that this will happen as the virus ticks along until it explodes again. (I think it will sooner rather than later).

I do hope I am wrong. I do hope opening up works out for the best. I do hope that if a second wave does hit us, about the time we leave Europe, that we do not have to start again because we delayed lockdown and expedited opening up in wave one.
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Are you implying that someone who has contracted 'long term disability' from the virus (no evidence for this but still) would be willing to trade the death of democracy and totalitarian regimes to have avoided it? Mental.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Are you implying that someone who has contracted 'long term disability' from the virus (no evidence for this but still) would be willing to trade the death of democracy and totalitarian regimes to have avoided it? Mental.
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Reading that it sounds like you'd rather die than not be allowed to shop at TK maxx
 
Alvez_48 said:
Well you have incredibly poor reading comprehension so it wouldn't surprise me, as has been proven out repeatedly. 👍🏻
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I’ll explain you seem to be claiming that a lockdown, despite happening in most places in the world, brings about “the death of democracy” and seem shocked someone would happily trade being locked down for contracting a deadly disease. It’s an odd angle to take
 
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