Long Covid -could this be the real legacy of the pandemic

Well you pushed the Great Barrington Declaration for one, which has absolutely zero evidence or detail attached to it. You know, that minor detail that most scientists, virologists, epidemiologists etc have been calling it out over.
Anyway, enough from me on the topic. Just thought it a bit of an open goal you questioning others over data and evidence, and I know you are a big enough personality to be able to take a bit of ribbing. Nothing significant meant by it.

The Barrington declaration that I 'pushed' is signed by thousands of medical professionals and scientists and is about handling the Pandemic, not evidence.

I'm just asking for you to substantiate your claim. I don't post lies and when I'm inaccurate I'm happy to admit it.
 
The Barrington declaration that I 'pushed' is signed by thousands of medical professionals and scientists and is about handling the Pandemic, not evidence.

I'm just asking for you to substantiate your claim. I don't post lies and when I'm inaccurate I'm happy to admit it.

I can’t do the GBD again, because you are only seeing what you want to see there.
How can you make proposals about how to handle the pandemic without providing any evidence to back up the science behind those proposals? If your whole proposal is based upon immunity being present long enough in individuals to develop herd immunity, you had better be damn sure that that most basic concept is backed up by science.
Which errrrrrm it is not.

Anyway, we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one.
 
The Barrington declaration that I 'pushed' is signed by thousands of medical professionals and scientists and is about handling the Pandemic, not evidence.

I'm just asking for you to substantiate your claim. I don't post lies and when I'm inaccurate I'm happy to admit it.
It's already been dismissed on here because the "website looks slick, where's the money from", yet those same people don't question why the likes of Hancock, Whitty and Valance are pushing the vaccine so hard when you consider their financial links to big pharma companies (conspiracy of course).
We are accused of only seeing what we want to see from those scientists involved with the Barrington declaration yet we aren't allowed to call out the ones who blindly follow other scientists. Will always be conflict of opinions.
 
Mate none of what you have said is backed by science other than people reporting feeling bad on an app and 'studies' that haven't been peer reviewed and have absolutely miniscule sample sizes, you're suffering pure fear.. read the other side mate try to get some confidence and optimism back in your life.
Are you calling @Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants a liar?
 
Covid: more than 80% positive UK cases in study had no core symptoms

ONS survey said 86.1% of people between April and June had none of the main symptoms of coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ive-cases-in-covid-study-had-no-core-symptoms


It's simply untrue to suggest that long covid is suffered by many people following exposure and thus will be 'this pandemics legacy'.

I'd say this pandemics legacy might well be the end of the Conservative party permanently as a headline act.

/End of thread

I ignored this earlier, but since you like to challenge everyone who questions your interpretations of "facts", I thought I'd revisit.

You claim its "simply untrue" to suggest many suffer from long covid. The article you linked to back up your opinion is about those who had no symptoms at the point of being randomly tested positive (115 of 36000).

You cannot possibly base your opinion on the prevalence of long covid on that article as it is unknown if those people went on to suffer symptoms, which is clearly stated within.
 
I can’t do the GBD again, because you are only seeing what you want to see there.
How can you make proposals about how to handle the pandemic without providing any evidence to back up the science behind those proposals? If your whole proposal is based upon immunity being present long enough in individuals to develop herd immunity, you had better be damn sure that that most basic concept is backed up by science.
Which errrrrrm it is not.

Anyway, we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one.

So essentially you chatted **** about me and couldn't back it up so waddle away, please don't post lies about me in future, thanks.
 
I ignored this earlier, but since you like to challenge everyone who questions your interpretations of "facts", I thought I'd revisit.

You claim its "simply untrue" to suggest many suffer from long covid. The article you linked to back up your opinion is about those who had no symptoms at the point of being randomly tested positive (115 of 36000).

You cannot possibly base your opinion on the prevalence of long covid on that article as it is unknown if those people went on to suffer symptoms, which is clearly stated within.

No I'm simply stating that repeat studies have shown that 80% of people don't have any symptoms.
Thus long covid will not be the legacy of this pandemic.
It's just one article of many I'm not posting every single one. How about post the evidence of the studies on the other side that confirm long covid affects most people infected with the disease. Oh wait, they don't exist
 
I ignored this earlier, but since you like to challenge everyone who questions your interpretations of "facts", I thought I'd revisit.

You claim its "simply untrue" to suggest many suffer from long covid. The article you linked to back up your opinion is about those who had no symptoms at the point of being randomly tested positive (115 of 36000).

You cannot possibly base your opinion on the prevalence of long covid on that article as it is unknown if those people went on to suffer symptoms, which is clearly stated within.
Asymptomatic people who continued to be asymptomatic over the period of study suffering from ground glass opacity or stripe shadows in 26 out of 37 people. Even people without symptoms can get lung defects from this nasty disease.

Screenshot_20200726-090251.jpg
 
No I'm simply stating that repeat studies have shown that 80% of people don't have any symptoms.
Thus long covid will not be the legacy of this pandemic.
It's just one article of many I'm not posting every single one. How about post the evidence of the studies on the other side that confirm long covid affects most people infected with the disease. Oh wait, they don't exist

No symptoms *at the point of testing*, the article does nothing to support your opinion on long covid, nothing at all.

I'm not the one challenging everyone to link their opinion to a article, that's you. If you are going to insist, then at least post something relevant to your opinion.
 
There is data that at least 40k people have died, and the death rates during lockdown and pre-post lockdown show that without controls the death rate dramatically increases. So, yes, there is evidence that without effort the deaths would increase exponentially, 300K is a pretty conservative estimate if you just let the disease run rampant with zero effort to control, because we would breach hospital capacity, and drugs, plasma and every other medicinal treatment would run out. The data while being incomplete shows the minimum deaths would be much much worse than we have seen.

It also doesn't look at how we would handle long covid health issues which would hit millions of people at the same time without any controls in place.

Yes, at least 40k, perhaps more given the excess deaths the exact reason for which will be debated but I think assuming they resulted directly or indirectly from SARS-CoV-2 is perfectly reasonable.

At the start of all this I was very much of the opinion we should have been introducing measures much earlier especially having seen what was happening in Italy and Spain. We were seeing a very very rapid rise in cases which was inevitably going to lead to deaths and did. I was also of the view that introducing restrictions would help reduce pressure on the NHS especially with a novel virus (though I was aware of coronavirus's in general) and a population fully susceptible. A little bit of reading reveals this assumption of susceptibilty to be incorrect on a very basic level and yet even now we have very prominent scientists quite happy to trot on the 8% (because of antibodies) have been infected and hardly acknowledge the role of other parts of the immune system (which a number of scientists pointed out and were derided for).

In reality the virus was likely established well before then with studies of waste water in Italy and Spain showing its presence and a number of, in retrospect, cases where Covid was suspected or shown after the event (see article below). It would have been impossible to know at the time as we (medics, scientists, government) simply weren't aware of it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light

I dare say that if the virus was at the levels it is now in a number of places in the UK we simply wouldn't have noticed (this is my opinion). We weren't testing back then (as a test hadn't been developed or used widely) and deaths weren't out of the ordinary in terms of numbers (not my opinion). Likewise if we hadn't experienced what we have and didn't have any testing now we wouldn't notice anything out of the ordinary in much of the UK in terms of hospital admissions for this time of year for much (maybe not all) of the UK.

Deaths would increase up until the point where there is no remaining susceptible population. Do restrictions and "lockdown" have an impact? Of course, on a very basic level they stop interactions between people and decrease the spread of the virus. Did the UK "lockdown" have much of an impact? I always thought it did but in hindsight (for me, not others) it probably didn't, it was likely too late to have much of an impact. There is a lag of 21-28 days between infections and death. Lets say 21 days. Peak of deaths in the UK was 8th April (see link below).

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

21 days before that was 18th March, before any formal "lockdown" (see below)

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-lockdown-hancock-claim/

It is obviously not as black and white as this as many companies had already started having people work from home, use of public transport had dropped, footfall in bars and restaurants was down (not surprising, people took appropriate action). These actions may have had an impact and maybe they should have just been continued without "formal" interventions

As for 300,000 deaths, that is plucked from the air sadly. The modelling suggested that sort of figure if no restrictions were put in place but some of the key assumptions do not appear to be correct (and I've defended Ferguson on here it should be noted). Ferguson's paper had us in and out of strict lockdowns on a rotating basis (which I fully bought I have to say) but that hasn't happened (schools have gone back, most places have Bars open throughout when they did re-open) so one must ask why.

Lockdown when enacted early of course suppresses the virus (see Israel) but when you open up and allow contacts to mix the virus spreads as there is a susceptible population.

I'll come onto some other things (vaccine, Spain etc) in another post. Yes, its long, yes I have too much time on my hands but it is important.
 
It's already been dismissed on here because the "website looks slick, where's the money from", yet those same people don't question why the likes of Hancock, Whitty and Valance are pushing the vaccine so hard when you consider their financial links to big pharma companies (conspiracy of course).
We are accused of only seeing what we want to see from those scientists involved with the Barrington declaration yet we aren't allowed to call out the ones who blindly follow other scientists. Will always be conflict of opinions.

Yourself and Alvez have not answered a single valid criticism or question of the GBD that I raised, despite plenty of opportunity. You ignored every single point, twice!
Absolute waste of time.

You two are the very definition of confirmation bias on this one.
Nah, I’m done with you lads. None so blind as those that cannot see. Crack on 👍
 
Yourself and Alvez have not answered a single valid criticism or question of the GBD that I raised, despite plenty of opportunity. You ignored every single point, twice!
Absolute waste of time.

You two are the very definition of confirmation bias on this one.
Nah, I’m done with you lads. None so blind as those that cannot see. Crack on 👍
Same could be said of you Fabio.
Or are you one of those who thinks the vaccine will be the saviour? Bad news for you fella because unless you are over 55 and eligible for the free yearly flu vaccine you'll be waiting even longer like the rest of us after its first released whenever that may be.

Ask me a question about the Barrington paper.

Do you think covid-19 is now been used as a political weapon not only in this country but others?

What are your thoughts on the recent revelation by the president of Belarus that the IMF and the world Bank offered him $940 USD to lockdown the country which he turned down? Or this that conspiracy because it wasn't reported on the BBC?

Any criticism of the likes of Witty and Valance or lockdown measures on here is met with calls of conspiracy theory b***ks so don't play the 'you don't answer any of the questions card' when you take everything reported on the news as gospel.
 
I raised a dozen points about GBD to you, twice. You ignored every single one.
Told you, waste of time. I’m done with you. Gave you both the benefit if the doubt for far too long. Crack on, have a good night.
 
Spain......

1602192610652.png
I expect it will get less media attention than when Spain had "surging cases" although I did see the Sun picked up on it, I think mainly because they mentioned Spain had kept bars open!

A certain clinician who gets a lock of grief described what would happen in Spain back in mid-september and so far it is proving to be the case.

Maybe the UK will be different, but the data at the moment suggests not. REACT data, app symptom data, triage data, hospital admissions (in context, not just a number) all important.
 
I raised a dozen points about GBD to you, twice. You ignored every single one.
Told you, waste of time. I’m done with you. Gave you both the benefit if the doubt for far too long. Crack on, have a good night.

The authors—Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard, Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, and Jay Bhattacharya, professor of medicine and economics at Stanford—said that because older people were 1000 times more likely to die of covid-19 than younger people, an “age stratified” approach could allow resources to be focused on older and high risk patients, while allowing younger and healthier people to attend school and keep businesses open.
They argue that focused protection would reduce the “collateral harms” of lockdown, including deaths from suicides, reduced childhood immunization, and increases in domestic violence.
Gupta said that widespread starvation was another serious consequence of lockdowns—a concern underscored by a report from the charity Oxfam,2 which found that border closures, curfews, and travel restrictions had caused breaks in the food supply that threatened to cause 12 000 deaths a day worldwide, exceeding the 10 000 deaths a day recorded from covid-19 in April.3
Kulldorff said that, with focused protection, low risk people could remain active and that this would help communities reach herd immunity sooner, which could shorten the duration and harms of lockdowns.4 Herd immunity, he said at a meeting in Great Barrington, Massachusetts, “is not a strategy—but a biological reality that will arrive sooner or later, either naturally or through a vaccine, or both.”
He defended the Swedish approach, saying that “schools were never closed for children aged 1 to 15, with zero covid-19 deaths . . .and the United States has now passed Sweden in terms of deaths per million inhabitants, despite Sweden having an older, more high risk population.”5

Also...

However, Stefan Baral, a physician epidemiologist and associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, said he was concerned that the meeting had taken place. Baral explained that, while he generally agreed that lockdowns were causing serious harms, he had declined to sign the declaration because it did not address the concrete steps needed to assist the most vulnerable people.
Baral told The BMJ that three steps must accompany any loosening of restrictions: firstly, the removal of any barriers to accessing healthcare; secondly, paid leave for people affected by covid-19; and lastly, housing support for such people in multigenerational households.
“Sweden instituted paid leave from day 1,” he said. “You can call in sick and know that you are going to be able to eat that night. In the US, if you call in sick, you and your family may not eat.”
Bhattacharya, one of the authors, said that he welcomed such criticisms, as he hoped that the declaration would be just the beginning of an important dialogue about the benefits, and the harms, of public health interventions.


Would you look at that, one of the authors of the declaration welcomes criticisms and isn't blinkered. But yes 3 scientists from 3 of the most prestigious universities in the world are definitely wrong.

Did you even bother reading the full declaration or just the bits the media picked out about herd immunity?
Care homes should have frequent testing of staff, residents and any visitors. Staff rotation should be kept to a minimum.
People of retirement age should have shopping and other essentials delivered to their homes and should only meet family members outside instead of inside where possible.
Simple hygiene measures should be practiced such as washing hands and staying at home when poorly by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold.

Read the declaration and look at the credentials of those who have signed up so far at the bottom of the page. If it's ok with you I'll take their word for it over yours, they've a bit more medical and scientific experience than anybody else on this message board. 😉
 
You really don’t know much about Sunetra Gupta, do you? Go and look at her claims back in March about covid and then let me know how they are working out.....
You really don’t know much about Bhattacharya’s ridiculed antibody survey either, do you? Or maybe you’ve just completely ignored them because it’s not what aligns with what you want to hear? You’ve clearly ignored all the concerns and questions raised by the many scientists, epidemiologists, virologists from leading universities around the world, regarding the GBD.

I’ve raised concerns and questions over the practicalities of their proposals repeatedly, as you’ve ignored. I agree with some of the things they propose, but then they are just common sense things, some of which are already in place to a degree.
I’ve posted links to other leading scientists questioning the GBD but you’ve ignored those too.
It’s not me who hasn’t researched this thing Randy, or looked at the merits and flaws of it objectively, or looked at the response to it from other leading scientists.

So if it’s all the same to you, I’ll continue to follow the scientists that show evidence and provide peer reviewed studies to back up their claims. You carry on following the scientists who are a front for far right economics and who pull in the Facebook crowd, without providing any evidence or data to back up their claims, or viable, workable solutions to their proposals.

For someone who clearly prides themselves on believing they are enlightened to what’s really going on in the world, you are completely piszing in the dark on this one I’m afraid.
I’ve given you a hint, now go and follow the rabbit and see where it takes you. Sorry to be the one to have to give you the disappointing news about your hero scientists... Actually I’m not sorry, because you still won’t see it anyway. You’ll only do the research you want, that confirms your belief.
Anyway, we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. Good night Randy
 
"You really don’t know much about Sunetra Gupta, do you? Go and look at her claims back in March about covid and then let me know how they are working out..... "

Go on then, I'll indulge, what were the claims?
 
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