I sometimes think I live in a parallel universe to others. Excess deaths of 60,000 is mental and peoples understanding is either way off reality or they are just trolling for bites. This is not Brexit....who knows what will happen...I might be right or you might be. This has and is happening right now.
So many posts commenting on the figures, and even the Spectator article for a pathologist discussing how badly the numbers are being recorded- the deaths are being recorded- whether COVID or excess deaths.
The data is available, clear and the numbers don't lie. Whether it is a covid death, or an excess death the trends are fairly simple.
Excess deaths pre March were lower than the 5 year average week on week.
Week 11 (13th March end) were the first COVID registered deaths- Excess deaths were still below 5 year average- they were however trending upwards.
As COVID deaths increased, excess deaths (not covid linked) increased, peaking around week 16/17 (between 10th and 24th April).
As COVID deaths are decreasing, excess deaths are currently decreasing.
The numbers are available for all to see, 2 weeks behind often.
Now how you interpret the UK numbers and with what agenda is in your hands- the hard stats dont lie though.
COVID deaths or any deaths increased significantly
Lockdown happened
COVID deaths or any deaths have started to decrease.
If excess deaths were as a consequence of the lockdown I would suspect they would not be decreasing currently- I would expect them to remain stable, or indeed increase as more people wait longer for care- and this is likely to happen to some degree over the next 2 years.
Lockdown has reduced the virus spread- whether that would have happened anyway- I am not convinced. But as we come out of lockdown I expect we can start making predictions on whether something wonderful is happening and the virus has decided to give up, or whether it does increase somewhat.
Here is hoping that the lockdown was a waste of time, the virus has run its course, it has been around for years and nobody ever realised before March and when we reduce our lockdown the excess/covid numbers return to zero. This seems to be suggested by some. If it is the case we will be open for business everywhere by July.
Personally, I worry we haven't got control over a virus that is very deadly for some, and it will continue to simmer over the summer months as we start to open up, and come September on school returns and the change towards flu season we will be in for a rough ride. Here's hoping i'm wrong.