Lockdown Deaths

Just on the news here in Oz that a study indicated approx 15% of COVID infected people are asymptomatic.

I assume it’s an Oz study, but not sure. Will try and track it down if that would be helpful.

More like 50%+ in every other study, for info.
 
More like 50%+ in every other study, for info.
I think you missed my second post "Professors across 3 Oz universities, gathering data from 9 international studies."
So what you mean is "More like 50% in every other study except the 9 international studies that they looked at.
 
I think you missed my second post "Professors across 3 Oz universities, gathering data from 9 international studies."
So what you mean is "More like 50% in every other study except the 9 international studies that they looked at.

Go on send me a link then my friend let me take a read.
Everywhere including even the guardian (the main fear pushers) admit it's 50%+ let's have a read of the studies you've seen.
 
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v2

Think this might be it. I haven’t read it just a news article summarising it so I won’t comment on it

Edit - yet to previewed

Only covers c600 people that tested positive. 83 people asymptomatic. I would say it’s a very small test pool

So essentially what they did was play with numbers from actual studies and confidence intervals to come up with a lower number so they could say this -

'Our estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases are lower than many highly publicized studies, but still substantial. Further robust epidemiological evidence is urgently needed.'

They haven't done a study of actual patients themselves.
 
So essentially what they did was play with numbers from actual studies and confidence intervals to come up with a lower number so they could say this -

'Our estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases are lower than many highly publicized studies, but still substantial. Further robust epidemiological evidence is urgently needed.'

They haven't done a study of actual patients themselves.

There’s no evidence to suggest they downplayed it. They looked at 1000 articles. 21000 people tested across 6 countries and that was the result.

I would say you’ve took a particular cynical stance and assumed a motive when there isn’t evidence of one
 
There’s no evidence to suggest they downplayed it. They looked at 1000 articles. 21000 people tested across 6 countries and that was the result.

I would say you’ve took a particular cynical stance and assumed a motive when there isn’t evidence of one

If you say so..

The studies that have actually tested people themselves and case studies such as the diamond Princess always come up at over 50% but ye I admit I'm being a bit harsh on them.

There is always a place for motive though within science and it's not often about gaining knowledge, you should give me that.
 
If you say so..

The studies that have actually tested people themselves and case studies such as the diamond Princess always come up at over 50% but ye I admit I'm being a bit harsh on them.

There is always a place for motive though within science and it's not often about gaining knowledge, you should give me that.

Yeah. Bluddy scientists. Wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them. Even worse when they’ve got no reason to lie, what with being on the other side of the world from the sh*tshow, where we’ve got coronavirus under control. They’re the worst. Where’s my tin hat.
 
If you say so..

The studies that have actually tested people themselves and case studies such as the diamond Princess always come up at over 50% but ye I admit I'm being a bit harsh on them.

There is always a place for motive though within science and it's not often about gaining knowledge, you should give me that.

I’m not saying there isn’t an agenda for them so I’ll give you that. At first glance impossible to say if they have the agenda. I would hope that they would have integrity though
 
Yeah. Bluddy scientists. Wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them. Even worse when they’ve got no reason to lie, what with being on the other side of the world from the sh*tshow, where we’ve got coronavirus under control. They’re the worst. Where’s my tin hat.

I'm not saying that Otto my friend. It was specifically in response to gaz and if you read I said I admit I'm being harsh, I want them to be wrong because if they are it's better for us.
To say there's no reason to lie or 'manipulate findings' is not true though and further more if you just do a tiny bit of reading into it you will find there's a big problem in science and has been for several years when it comes to research and findings.
#onlyweartinfoilontuesdays 😉
 
I wonder if and when we're proved right people like bear, Billy, dood etc will admit it..
For me mate its not about been proved right or wrong, I'll stand my corner certainly, especially when accused of not caring about people dying, yes the virus is real. Has the world overreacted? Definitely.
Will the consequences of lockdown kill more people overall than the virus will? Well we can't say for certain right now but in the next few years I believe it will be found to be the direct and indirect cause of millions of deaths worldwide
 
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I should qualify I care about being right only because when in a couple of months those same people will be perplexed by the economic catastrophe causing untold suffering.
 
I should qualify I care about being right only because when in a couple of months those same people will be perplexed by the economic catastrophe causing untold suffering.
Totally understandable mate.
It seems the government may have had a lightbulb moment though with the reports that a "save the summer 6" has been organised with the aims of opening the hospitality and tourism industry and reducing the 2 metre guidance.
 
I wonder if and when we're proved right people like bear, Billy, dood etc will admit it..

Contritium praecedit superbia, Alvez...

I don't think anyone has ever argued that those in younger age groups are at high risk of hospitalisation or death (although a small number are). The fact remains, however, that the higher the level of spread across the community, the higher the probability of people in older age groups and/or those with underlying health conditions (who are at significantly higher risk) of contracting the virus. That's the reason for the rest of us to try and suppress the virus, not because we should be personally scared of catching it.

It is still the case that the countries which have dealt with this best are the ones which recognised it as a SARS-type virus and immediately imposed measures (usually test, track and isolate) to suppress its spread, keeping numbers to manageable levels and preventing widespread community infection. Those which have dealt with it worst (including the UK), initially dealt with it as a flu-type epidemic, allowing community spread to occur and being forced to change tack (and impose lockdowns) when it became clear that things were spiralling out of control. I've said before, but I'll restate it yet again, lockdown is not the optimal policy response to the virus, it is an admittance of failure by the governments concerned.

Finally, I think you're confusing my willingness to point out factual errors as some sort of advocacy for a particular policy position. I like to think that I do that on both sides of the argument, but it's unfortunately the case that those who were anti-lockdown from the start have tended to be the ones promoting false statistics and/or statements completely unsupported by evidence.

I want us to be out of this situation as quickly as everyone does. If that means that I need to admit to being wrong about a few things, I would be delighted to do so. I am still awaiting, however, your admittance that you were wrong about more than 50% of the population having already had the virus (current evidence estimates 7%), wrong that people weren't dying of Covid-19 but simply with it (death registrations show 95% of people with Covid died as a direct consequence of the disease) and wrong that the Infection Fatality Rate was about 0.06% (current evidence shows 0.75-1% for the UK).
 
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