Latest Kantar poll - Tories 13 points ahead

TeessideCleveland said:
Down to 2 per cent today (37-35), though none of the drop in Tory support has gone to Labour
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It will have, the majority of the support the Tories lose, goes into the ground occupied by labour/SNP/ LD, and labour lose to the likes of the greens etc, which is fine (as they will never vote Tory).

Not many will be switching from this version of tory to the greens, but even if they do, I'll take that also.
 
Andy_W said:
It will have, the majority of the support the Tories lose, goes into the ground occupied by labour/SNP/ LD, and labour lose to the likes of the greens etc, which is fine (as they will never vote Tory).

Not many will be switching from this version of tory to the greens, but even if they do, I'll take that also.
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I think quite a few may return to the ranks of non-voters, from whence they sprang.
 
Jack I am not sure many will now not vote. You are right brexit galvanised people to vote. I think the way brexit has been implemented might equally galvanise people to vote.
 
Laughing said:
Jack I am not sure many will now not vote. You are right brexit galvanised people to vote. I think the way brexit has been implemented might equally galvanise people to vote.
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I'm hoping they're two separate groups. Brexiters who think 'job done' and stop voting versus habitual non-voters who are propelled to the voting booths by this government's egregious incompetence and malevolence.
 
JackG said:
I'm hoping they're two separate groups. Brexiters who think 'job done' and stop voting versus habitual non-voters who are propelled to the voting booths by this government's egregious incompetence and malevolence.
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Those who are satisfied with brexit, and there are a few, will just not bother voting, if they don't generally.

Some who don't vote, the, they're all the same brigade, will see how badly the country is being run and many of those will vote.

Some soft tories will move to other parties and some staunch brexiteers will stick with tory even if they are traditional Labour voters.

A quick calculation tells me we will have a hung parliament and end up with a coalition government.
 
The problem labour have is tens of thousands of voters in key seats will forgive this government anything because 1. They got brexit done and
2, Labour blocked the will of the people .
The tories with the help of the billionaire owned MSM have convinced them privileged super rich old etonians represent them and relate to their woes.
 
jam69 said:
The problem labour have is tens of thousands of voters in key seats will forgive this government anything because 1. They got brexit done and
2, Labour blocked the will of the people .
The tories with the help of the billionaire owned MSM have convinced them privileged super rich old etonians represent them and relate to their woes.
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I am not sure I agree with that either. The tories, in recent years have scraped by in elections until 2019. And that is with a cabinet that were much more capable than the current lot.

I will be genuinely surprised if the tories get another go. For that to happen they're has to be a turn around of huge proportions. The fact that that will happen probably means the electorate aren't as stupid or blind as some think.
 
Laughing said:
I am not sure I agree with that either. The tories, in recent years have scraped by in elections until 2019. And that is with a cabinet that were much more capable than the current lot.

I will be genuinely surprised if the tories get another go. For that to happen they're has to be a turn around of huge proportions. The fact that that will happen probably means the electorate aren't as stupid or blind as some think.
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I don't think so much blind, as mislead, apathetic or both
 
jam69 said:
I don't think so much blind, as mislead, apathetic or both
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They're is a fair bit of everything in the mix. Apathy probably accounts for a lot.

I know from experience that some read the tory press and just accept it at face value.

Some genuinely believe Labour would take us back to miner strikes and power cuts.

I said this on another thread. I live in a middle class village in beds, the lovely nadine dorris is our mp. Talking to staunch tory voters, many are beginning to use phrases like "this government have a lot to answer for".
 
The Tory press are a nightmare for any progressive party that wants to get into power.

The Daily Express today is running with a headline that says that Rishi is on a mission to cut taxes, despite him having raised taxes.

The Daily Mail are very balanced in that the are running with a headline that says 'The drinks are on us' with accompanying photos of the Chancellor and PM at a brewery. They do however point out in the lines below that taxes are higher than any point since the 1950s.
 
Unravel_Morrison said:
The Tory press are a nightmare for any progressive party that wants to get into power.

The Daily Express today is running with a headline that says that Rishi is on a mission to cut taxes, despite him having raised taxes.

The Daily Mail are very balanced in that the are running with a headline that says 'The drinks are on us' with accompanying photos of the Chancellor and PM at a brewery. They do however point out in the lines below that taxes are higher than any point since the 1950s.
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The Torygraph have run with the highest tax burden since the early 90s and haven’t followed the Express ridiculous take on it.
 
All Starmer has to do is appear as an alternative that the Tories are not scared of. One of the problems Corbyn had was he terrified people and they mobilised against him.

If Starmer, like Blair in 1997, can appear to be not too terrifying a prospect should he get in, the newspapers and news outlets on the right will not go into such ramped up rhetoric to urge people into voting. There is a lot they do not like about Johnson and how things are going.

The other thing Starmer needs to do, which I think he is working behind the scenes to bring the old Labour hierarchy on board with, is embrace working with other political parties. This might mean an election pact, it might mean some radical constitutional changes. Hopefully PR.

If he is smart, he has a very progressive agenda once in government, but he couches this in sufficiently vague terms until then and in the manifesto.

I'd like PR.
I'd like Lords Reform.
I'd like the way our parties are funded and influenced to be overhauled.

These can all be presented as radical changes, the sort of radical changes many who voted for Brexit wanted, they just picked a method that will actually make things worse. So some Brexiters might get on board. In addition, many Remainers and 'anyone but Tory' voters now see that PR is imperative.

I'd like some of the bodies that oversee government and political parties to have teeth. Most people would be on board with that, since most people assumed they always did.

I'd like to see the criminal justice system overhauled, properly funded and protected. That can be spun in a way to make it absolutely palatable to the Right in this country. If ever there was a Party Leader in this country who would know what was needed to rescue and improve the criminal justice system it is Starmer.

I'd like to see us realign with, if not rejoin, the Single Market. I think that can be spun as not just an economic necessity, but something the majority were in favour of in 2016. There should be no suggestion of rejoining the EU however.

The NHS and Social Care is a priority. Housing is a priority. Education is a priority.

All these would be popular.

He should have a programme to tax the rich, but he shouldn't say it.

Lastly, he should have a plan to sort the media, including social media, out. It should be done with the aim of restoring trust in the news. That means expecting certain standards when it comes to reporting and rigorously enforcing these standards so that the public can start to trust the mainstream media over social media when it comes to news and the truth. There might not be anything more important to our democracies right now. This means not allowing the press to police themselves. It means proper press complaints procedures and serious consequential remedies. That doesn't mean newspapers can't have opinions, it doesn't mean they can't get things wrong. It should mean that they follow certain journalistic principles and procedures to ensure accuracy and balance.
 
Lefty said:
All Starmer has to do is appear as an alternative that the Tories are not scared of. One of the problems Corbyn had was he terrified people and they mobilised against him.
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I'm not sure about that. Corbyn lost a couple of million of his own voters between 2017 and 2019 and the Tories only gained another circa 300k voters across the country.

I don't think that would constitute any sort of Tory mobilisation.

The next election is likely to be about who doesn't vote as much as who does.
 
Unravel_Morrison said:
I'm not sure about that. Corbyn lost a couple of million of his own voters between 2017 and 2019 and the Tories only gained another circa 300k voters across the country.

I don't think that would constitute any sort of Tory mobilisation.

The next election is likely to be about who doesn't vote as much as who does.
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The voters Corbyn lost were Remainers he ***ed off.
 
Lefty said:
If he is smart, he has a very progressive agenda once in government, but he couches this in sufficiently vague terms until then and in the manifesto.
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It's a nice thought that this is what's happening but I very much doubt it Lefty.

1) I'm not sure we've ever had a government that have been more left wing in practice than they were when campaigning or in their manifesto. Starmer doing this would be reversing a very long standing trend.

2) The party would get absolutely hammered doing all you've listed without a mandate. Changing the voting system, regulatory bodies, the Lords, and the media without any approval from the electorate? It'd be talked about as an assault on democracy.

3) because of 2) it'd be as short lived as can be. Whatever the voting system Labour would lose vote share dramatically afterwards, and any and all changes would more than likely be reversed in the following parliament.

4) and finally, all of the above is ignoring that there's no real reason to think Starmer will lead the party to enough seats to be in government anyway - coalition or otherwise. I know the polling has improved in the last week or two but compare it to the polling leads Miliband and Corbyn were able to get at different times as leaders. It wasn't enough. The tories are very effective at election time.
 
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