Zoophonic
Well-known member
Its that elbow.
January window?
- Thread starter The Card Cheat
- Start date
1AitorKaranka
Well-known member
Glover isn't the backup keeper
Bruce
Well-known member
I don't think we'll want to sell either of them but I think they'll both be pushing for a move to a top tier league. It may depend. Say we lose at Wembley in the playoffs then I think we'll be able to hold onto them and one of Rav, Hackney and ELL. If we end the season in 7th-10th and were never really in with a shout then I think they go if they get offers they want and we can't refuse. Then again if we end the season 7th-10th I think Carrick's position will be seriously in doubt because I suspect the playoffs are our minimum goal this season.
As always, you never know when something completely out of left-field will happen, like Rogers but there is going to be a huge turnover plus we may end up with players we can't sell but who will only have 12 months left on their contract and no real incentive to renew. Lenihan, Forss, Fry, Clarke, Ayling, Glover, Barlaser and Hoppe are all in that situation. With the possible exception of Forss, I don't see any club offering a fee and offering to match their current salary, yet alone improve it. Then we have Engel and Bangura who seem to be perma-crocs for one reason or another so are probably unsellable.
It will be messy. Hopefully it won't come to that.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Difficulty is he would be a liability at prem level, but a useful player at this level. We don't know where we will be..
He does need to go and get some game time, he's got ability, but is quite far behind where Rogers was when we signed him.
- Seny Dieng - prem backup or 1st choice in champo
- Sol Brynn - backup
- Tom Glover - sell either way, but pointless signing new 3rd keeper in Jan or disrupting Diengs role
- Tommy Smith - injured too long, too old, release
- Luke Ayling - keep, experience backup in prem, or 1st choice in champo
- Anfernee Dijksteel - release if prem, keep for remainder of season, unless a quality prem ready replacement can be found
- Matt Clarke - keep this season, sell in summer. Get 2.5-3.5m good defender but not good enough with ball at feet
- Dael Fry - might be end of the road for him. Sell for 2.5m in summer, needed for coer right now
- Darragh Lenihan - injured too long, might be time to sell 1m but won't be fit for Jan sale
- George Edmundson - offer him a new contract
- Neto Borges - prem backup, champo 1st choice
- Lukas Engel - sell 500k
- Hayden Hackney - sell for funds if champo next summer, keep if in prem
- Aidan Morris - keep
- Jonny Howson - release in summer if in prem, new contract if champo
- Dan Barlaser - sell
- Isaiah Jones - sell
- Ben Doak - try and loan again?
- Marcus Forss - sell, never really nails down first team shirt, injured too much, sell if a good offer comes in 3m+
- Finn Azaz - prem squad player, champo star
- Alex Gilbert - loan out or sell
- Delano Burgzorg - sell if in prem, keep if in champo
- Riley McGree - keep
- Emmanuel Latte Lath - sell if in champo keep in prem
- Tommy Conway - keep
- Pointless selling RB for Smith we have two aready.
- LB for Engel, would be our fourth new LB in 18 months
- new CM for Barlaser,
- new RW for Jones/Forss, but would be second fiddle to doak
- New 10 for Gilbert, would need to be absolutely top notch to pressure Azaz right now
I don't think we will do more than two in, two out as there is too much uncertainty about where we will e next year
newyddion
Well-known member
£3m+ for Forss?
I know Azaz had a great game at the weekend but that position is still our weakest. He's a big step down from what Akpom was so if we could get someone more like Akpom I think it would be an improvement. I don't think we have anyone that can cover Azaz either (Gilbert has shown brief flashes of quality but not enough to be sure about). I prefer that 10 role to be a deep striker than an attacking midfielder like Azaz.
I wouldn't be signing someone as good as Azaz, it would have to be a big improvement to be worth it so I don't think it's likely to happen. More chance we sign a back-up for him than a replacement.
I wouldn't be signing someone as good as Azaz, it would have to be a big improvement to be worth it so I don't think it's likely to happen. More chance we sign a back-up for him than a replacement.
Yeah with Crooks going we do miss a battering ram player to get goals against these low block sides like Derby etc
The fullbacks are by far our weakest positions, Ayling has been no where near as good this season and Borges is yet to prove himself
I agree it's the weakest in terms of covering players, but the constant comparisons to Akpom are unrealistic - they're different players playing in different ways.
Akpom's role was to hold up play and score goals from the assisting wide players (mostly Giles).... A better version of Crooks.
Azaz's role is to progressively play the ball forward onto other players. He isn't there to score 20 goals like Akpom was, he's there to hopefully assist 20 goals for ELL/Conway/Doak/McGree/etc...
There won't be another #10 who will be comparable to Akpom because the way we play has evolved, and rightly so... If Akpom got injured that season we'd have finished mid-table.
----
I do think we need another player in a similar mold to Azaz though - it's potentially Gilbert but I think he's the only major step down in our front 4...
Doak to Jones is a step down - but Jones is still an adequate replacement. We also have Forss coming back.
McGree to Burgzorg is also a step down - but Burgzorg showed he's an adequate replacement on Saturday.
We have Gilbert and Hamilton who can play all positions. Conway, McGree and Burgzorg can also play as potential #10s.... but it's not a like for like replacement in my opinion.
TeaCider
Well-known member
I'd say that's pretty harsh on Ayling, he's played about a third of the matches out of position and the backline has rarely been settled.
I agree - Ayling has been one of our most consistent players since he signed.
I would like to sign a long term replacement though - I think we're missing a trick not having a young up and coming RB to learn from and then eventually take the place of Ayling and Smith in the squad...
Brodie Spencer would be my choice.
Bruce
Well-known member
January? I agree. I see a max of two out in order to free up registered places for loans.
Lenihan, Smith, Engel, Bangura → due to their injury record I don't see us being able to sell them in January even if we wanted to. I don't think we'll release Smith because there's no financial gain to us from paying up his contract. It's possible if he's back in training that we might let him go on loan to someone who pays a small percentage of his wage to see if he can get fit and earn a new contract elsewhere. I could see him going to a team like Blackpool in that case.
Hamilton and Gilbert. I can see us loaning one of them to make a space but not both unless we have someone really top-class lined-up who can play on the left and #10. Lot depends on Burgzorg: if he makes a real case to start then we could potentially loan them both out. Jury's out on that though.
Jones, no way we're letting him go. He's the only orthodox winger we have other than Doak. He may be off-form right now but I think he'll come good again.
Barlaser, I don't see us selling him in January and even if we wanted to, I don't see any sort of half-decent bid coming in for him. I would like us to get Tyler Morton from Liverpool or Casadei from Chelsea on loan but that seems like a big ask. If we did, then there's a good incentive for us to try and persuade Barlaser to go. There do seem to have been enough links with midfielders that maybe we've been trying to upgrade Barlaser.
Forss - I think we would be open to selling him but I don't see anyone risking more than £1m and I don't see anyone offering him a pay increase. Pretty sure Forss is going to end up seeing out his contract here, mostly injured.
If Carrick thinks Ayling and Howson are adequate cover at centre-back, I could see Fry being allowed to leave if someone offered £1-2m. Don't see that happening though.
Dijksteel. If we get a decent bid, say around £1m, I can see us being tempted if we have a replacement lined up. He's making a strong case for a new contract but I doubt we will offer him enough to make him an offer that he will accept. I suspect he'll let his contract run out and hope for a payday next summer.
Difficulty with selling players is they need to agree to go and generally the ones we WANT to sell are the ones who we would have to pay-off to leave because they'll take a pay cut if they leave. Exhibit #1 Hoppe.
I can just about see us doing some sort of deal with Hull that sees some combination of Fry, Forss and/or Gilbert going their way and Giles coming to us. I think though, Hull is enough of a clown case that we'll just stay away.
I think that given we don't know if we'll be promoted that we're likely to aim for two key loans and one permanent, like McGree and Azaz to come in more as a development option over the next 6-12 months regardless of where we are. The link with Tamás Nikitscher seems like one of those. He might be willing to start on the bench and fight to earn himself a place. He's left-footed and a bit of a unit but not an out-and-out defensive midfielder so he seems to fit what Carrick is looking for. He could be this seasons Boyd Munce.
BoroMart
Well-known member
I agree we shouldn't be too harsh on Ayling, but his level is below last season, without a doubt, and in the modern game, fullback is a really really important role.
Ayling is a 6-7 /10 every week, but he's not got 8s or 9s yet and that would make a significant different to us. Same for Borges, an improvement on Engel who varied from 3-7 /10, but that steady 6-7 /10 is a little short of what we want. Same could be argued for CBs though, they've all blown hot and cold, Edmundson is probably the steadiest of them, and Rav next but he's had injury issues.
Absolutely agree, but it does put pressure on other players to deliver with goals. We do have a lot of low goal scorers in the first XI. Morris looks like he'll score 1 screamer a season; the CBs don't look like they'll score more than 4 between them from corners. FBs might get 2 or 3 max. That puts pressure on the 4 forwards and Hackney. HH has looked a bigger goal threat this year and I can see him getting 5 or 6 league goals. Azaz maybe 8-10. Conway and Lath will get 35 between them. That leaves Doak and McGree as the other key guys that maybe need 15+ between them. McGrees record is pretty good to be honest, and I could see him getting double figures if he stays fit
The pressure is much more evenly distributed throughout the team than in previous years.
Akpom was great - but imagine the position we'd have been in that season if he got injured for 6 weeks? especially before the January window.
Without going too deep into stats - and keeping the numbers round - 80 goals would be a realistic target to get top 4.
ELL + Conway - 30
Azaz - 10
McGree, Doak, Burgzorg - 6 each?
Jones, Forss, Hamilton - Can they find 6 between them? - We know Forss has goals in him if he ever becomes fit again.
That's already 64 - Hackney already has 2... Can he add another 3 to make it 69?
Clarke and Edmundson have 3 between them already - and we're only 1/3 of the way through the season - so 7 goals between all CBs wouldn't be a stretch.
Barlasar has a goal - so we're already at 77.... without Ayling, Dijksteel, Borges, Howson and Morris who might score 1 each, but probably not 2.
I wouldn't be surprised if Barlasar got another 1 or 2 before the end of the season too - which puts us way over 80.
I might be bias or living in my own world here but all these numbers seem realistic, maybe even conservative.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Agreed, much better to not have to rely on one star…but at the same time, having a star forward you can rely on was brilliant for a fleeting season
We could still have that in ELL - He's not going to hit Akpom's 28 goals... but he could easily get close to 20 which puts him in that "star forward" category in my opinion.
It's the first time I've ever went into a January transfer window thinking we don't "need" anyone...
I'd like cover at left back (or for Engel/Bangura to be fit again and be that cover for Borges)... I'd like a backup for Azaz... Maybe a third choice big target man up front to offer something different...
.... but I'd also be fine if we didn't sign anyone.
Simply red
Well-known member
The teams above us will strengthen so it’s imperative we do also .
Smith / Lenahan / Engel / Bangura / Mcabe / Gilbert / Hoppe are not challenging the 1st team so there is wiggle room .
Smith / Lenahan / Engel / Bangura / Mcabe / Gilbert / Hoppe are not challenging the 1st team so there is wiggle room .
There's no wiggle room without a place in the squad.
Hoppe isn't in the squad / McCabe isn't either so doesn't count.
Smith / Lenihan / Bangura / Gilbert all have long term injuries presumably going beyond January, so nobodies going to sign them... and it's very rare we de-register a player.
Engel... Nobody really knows what's happened there.
The only way I see us bringing in another player is by replacing a current squad player... and I only see that being Barlasar or Fry.
BoroMart
Well-known member
bias or not, I love the optimism.
Based on their performances over recent seasons at this level or similar:
FB:
Ayling 34 games - 1 goal
Dijksteel 20 games - 0-1 goals
Borges 30 games - 1-2 goals (based on Ligue 1)
Engel 8 games - 0-1 goals
CB:
Clarke 24 games - 2-4 goals
Rav 25 games - 1-2 goals
Edmundson 31 games 2-3 goals
Fry 12 games 0-1 goals
CM
Morris 40 games ? 0-3 goals
Hackney 30 games 4-6 goals
Howson 15 games 0-1 goal
Barlaser 10 games 1-2 goals
RW
Doak 26 games ? 2-4 goals
Jones 10 games - 1-3 goals
Forss 10 games - 4-6 goals
LW
McGree 30 games - 5-8 goals
Bergzorg 16 games - 4-6 goal
10
Azaz 40 games 10-14 goals
Gilbert 6 games 1-3 goals
CF
Latte Lath 23 games - 14-18 goals
Conway 23 games - 10-14 goals
1 -Defence : 5-10 goals
2 - Mid : 5-12 goals
3 - Wingers : 16-27 goals
4 - CF : 24-32 goals
TOTAL : 50-81 goals.
We need players to feature at the middle of their ability levels and above. Highlighted players are behind the minimum target I feel they should be at. Jones has dropped out, McGree has struggled with fitness an Lath is a streaky player, probably need to get 10 goals in 15 games to meet his minimum target.