Fuel shortage

Andy_W

Well-known member
To sum up Eastern Europeans under 50 are just as well educated as Brits (up to Level 3 - A level). The reason they came to the UK was better opportunities in the period 1997 - 2012 ish, not because they are poorly educated, But that has now changed as opportunities are similar or soon becoming similar in their own country.

Can we all please agree?
Yeah, I agree with that bit, the standard of teaching is probably similar albeit I imagine the funding is less, although it's also probably cheaper, so that maybe cancels out/ evens up.

I bet they're more willing to learn too, or appreciative. Not sure how many of them make it to uni/ can afford not to work (instead of staying in education)/ can afford uni or go to uni's as well funded or high prestige as the UK.

I'm probably talking more historical too, as in the workforce we're recruiting for HGV's probably went through the education system 10+ years ago, and I imagine ours hasn't got much better, but I bet theirs has.

We certainly have/ had more opportunities than those countries, and probably similar to Germany, France etc, although I reckon we will slide down.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Forecourt fuel stocks had fallen to 32% on 23 September prior to BP announcing the shortage.

Screenshot_20211007-125613.jpg
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Forecourt fuel stocks had fallen to 32% on 23 September prior to BP announcing the shortage.

View attachment 25689
Is that just BP?

So 40% full is all fuel stations open, and to not have gone to zero meaning that 20% still had fuel or there was 20% split over the UK (unevenly).

I wonder if those who didn't have massive demand, still put in orders so fuel was going to places where it wasn't necessarily needed back then? Looks like it's on the way back up, but hopefully not a bounce.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Is that just BP?

So 40% full is all fuel stations open, and to not have gone to zero meaning that 20% still had fuel or there was 20% split over the UK (unevenly).

I wonder if those who didn't have massive demand, still put in orders so fuel was going to places where it wasn't necessarily needed back then? Looks like it's on the way back up, but hopefully not a bounce.
No. All petrol stations. It shows that there was a gradual decline in stocks from Freedom Day. Panic buying wasn't the issue; it just moves the decline by about a week. At 13% there was a little over a day's stock countrywide average.

The supply / demand graph :

Screenshot_20211007-135433.jpg
 
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Andy_W

Well-known member
No. All petrol stations. It shows that there was a gradual decline in stocks from Freedom Day. Panic buying wasn't the issue; it just moves the decline by about a week. At 13% there was a little over a day's stock countrywide average.

The supply / demand graph :

View attachment 25691
Yeah, would have been good to see that graph over a longer timeframe, like a decade. Hard to know where we are, if we don't know where we were pre pandemic, pred brexit etc.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
We have fuel on our forecourt now after 4 days of nothing. Interestingly enough no queues I assume because people all filled up last week.
 

Randy

Well-known member
The Government’s switch to greener petrol last month was a “major factor” behind the fuel crisis that saw forecourts across the country run dry, industry chiefs have revealed.

Retailers said they had already been “emptying their tanks as fast as we could” for the switchover to E10 petrol when a sudden surge in panic buying quickly drained their remaining stocks.

According to official figures released on Thursday, fuel deliveries to petrol stations remained steady over the summer and throughout most of September despite warnings of a slowdown caused by a shortage of HGV drivers.

Yet the amount of spare fuel stored at forecourts fell sharply by up to a quarter after Sept 1, when the Government introduced greener E10 fuel as the standard unleaded petrol.

When motorists began panic buying on Sept 24, garages across the country found they did not have enough in their storage tanks to keep up with demand.

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Brian Madderson, the chairman of the Petrol Retailers Association, said the data showed that the fuel crisis had been an “unintended consequence” of the Government’s switch to greener petrol.

“For weeks we had been emptying our tanks of E5, the old fuel, as fast as we could to get ready for E10. We had all run our petrol stocks down,” Mr Madderson said.

“So when the panic buying started, many of our members ran out pretty quickly. Then the shortage of HGV drivers meant we couldn’t get supplies quickly enough.

“I don’t blame the Government particularly but the E10 switchover clearly had an unintended consequence: we couldn’t cope with the surge in demand.”

From the telegraph.
 

bear66

Well-known member
The Government’s switch to greener petrol last month was a “major factor” behind the fuel crisis that saw forecourts across the country run dry, industry chiefs have revealed.

Retailers said they had already been “emptying their tanks as fast as we could” for the switchover to E10 petrol when a sudden surge in panic buying quickly drained their remaining stocks.

According to official figures released on Thursday, fuel deliveries to petrol stations remained steady over the summer and throughout most of September despite warnings of a slowdown caused by a shortage of HGV drivers.

Yet the amount of spare fuel stored at forecourts fell sharply by up to a quarter after Sept 1, when the Government introduced greener E10 fuel as the standard unleaded petrol.

When motorists began panic buying on Sept 24, garages across the country found they did not have enough in their storage tanks to keep up with demand.

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Brian Madderson, the chairman of the Petrol Retailers Association, said the data showed that the fuel crisis had been an “unintended consequence” of the Government’s switch to greener petrol.

“For weeks we had been emptying our tanks of E5, the old fuel, as fast as we could to get ready for E10. We had all run our petrol stocks down,” Mr Madderson said.

“So when the panic buying started, many of our members ran out pretty quickly. Then the shortage of HGV drivers meant we couldn’t get supplies quickly enough.

“I don’t blame the Government particularly but the E10 switchover clearly had an unintended consequence: we couldn’t cope with the surge in demand.”

From the telegraph.
That makes sense, but was diesel changed at the same time as diesel deliveries also fell at the same time?
 

Randy

Well-known member
That makes sense, but was diesel changed at the same time as diesel deliveries also fell at the same time?
I don't believe diesel is part of the new rules but I suppose it makes sense that those with diesel vehicles would panic buy aswell as those who own petrol vehicles if those folks don't know about the upcoming fuel change.
I only knew about it as when I bought our current car at the start of the salesman said it would work no problems with the new E10 fuel.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I don't believe diesel is part of the new rules but I suppose it makes sense that those with diesel vehicles would panic buy aswell as those who own petrol vehicles if those folks don't know about the upcoming fuel change.
I only knew about it as when I bought our current car at the start of the salesman said it would work no problems with the new E10 fuel.

I get the panic buying, effecting both, and agree with that but think @bear66 meant that the fuel stations wouldn't have been intentionally running their diesel tanks low, ready for the petrol switchover, so even if that was an excuse for petrol/ E10, it wasn't for diesel, and diesel is the most used fuel, by almost double.

1633769825533.png

If fuel deliveries had been "constant", then it wouldn't have been possible for garages to run their tanks low, unless they were hiding it somewhere else?

Seems like a "co-ordinated" response/ excuse to me, but the numbers don't stack up to be able to blame it on a switchover.

Even if the switchover was an issue, modern cars could probably handle a short duration of old petrol/ new petrol mix I imagine, if they had to, or some garages could have just said "don't fill up old cars here" until the switchover is complete. A competent good government would have seen this issue coming, and would have planned for it, mabe by controlling in the phasing in of the switch so there was proportional coverage for older and newer petrol vehicles.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Seeing as garages stocks dipped for all, I would assume with people filling up (and now bing full) deliveries being ramped up, that the ports/ storage would have suffered a dip, with a lag? I don't know if this has happened, but it might look something along the lines of this:

Normal - assume equal splits vehicles/ garages/ storage (I know this won't be accurate)
Vehicles: 33%
Garages: 33%
Storage: 33%

Panic buying - fuel storage moves from garages to vehicles, and storage can't keep up with demand from garages
Vehicles: 60%
Garages: 10%
Storage: 30%

Recovery - vehicles still full and filling, garages should catch up slowly (assuming normal deliveries), as vehicle use has not increased (possibly decreased)
Vehicles: 70%
Garages: 20%
Storage: 10%

The trick is whether that storage can keep topped up, but once every vehicle has been filled, it can't be filled anymore, so we should end up with something like this:

Worry - people keeping more fuel in the tanks, UK ends up with effective 120% of normal storage (the extra is in peoples tanks)
Vehicles: 70%
Garages: 30%
Storage: 20%

I expect it takes weeks/ months to ramp up supply to storage, as I expect most of the oil comes by boat or pipelines (which haven't been made bigger), so the storage stocks are probably quite low now, I'm guessing?
 

Laughing

Well-known member
I get the panic buying, effecting both, and agree with that but think @bear66 meant that the fuel stations wouldn't have been intentionally running their diesel tanks low, ready for the petrol switchover, so even if that was an excuse for petrol/ E10, it wasn't for diesel, and diesel is the most used fuel, by almost double.

View attachment 25809

If fuel deliveries had been "constant", then it wouldn't have been possible for garages to run their tanks low, unless they were hiding it somewhere else?

Seems like a "co-ordinated" response/ excuse to me, but the numbers don't stack up to be able to blame it on a switchover.

Even if the switchover was an issue, modern cars could probably handle a short duration of old petrol/ new petrol mix I imagine, if they had to, or some garages could have just said "don't fill up old cars here" until the switchover is complete. A competent good government would have seen this issue coming, and would have planned for it, mabe by controlling in the phasing in of the switch so there was proportional coverage for older and newer petrol vehicles.
I didn't know this until I started watching our petrol station but diesel and unleaded are in the same tanker so it could be that diesel supplies dipped lower than usual as stations were not ordering unleaded petrol so as a consequence their diesel on site was a bit lower than generally.
 

Anton_Berg

Well-known member
No queues in SW London so I guess it's all over. It isn't news anymore so the media are looking for the next 'crisis'.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I didn't know this until I started watching our petrol station but diesel and unleaded are in the same tanker so it could be that diesel supplies dipped lower than usual as stations were not ordering unleaded petrol so as a consequence their diesel on site was a bit lower than generally.
Good observation!
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Yeah, I agree with that bit, the standard of teaching is probably similar albeit I imagine the funding is less, although it's also probably cheaper, so that maybe cancels out/ evens up.

I bet they're more willing to learn too, or appreciative. Not sure how many of them make it to uni/ can afford not to work (instead of staying in education)/ can afford uni or go to uni's as well funded or high prestige as the UK.

I'm probably talking more historical too, as in the workforce we're recruiting for HGV's probably went through the education system 10+ years ago, and I imagine ours hasn't got much better, but I bet theirs has.

We certainly have/ had more opportunities than those countries, and probably similar to Germany, France etc, although I reckon we will slide down.
Thank you Andy for your agreement

So logically we can't keep expecting to recruit from EU Eastern Europe certainly on anything but a short term basis. That supply line is quickly drying up for lorry drivers and farm workers.

The options then are to train/recruit more UK based drivers or look to non EU countries say Africa and Turkey and bring people from those countries in on permits.

My preference is to make the job more attractive for UK based people, through improved working conditions and improved pay. I think those changes were be have permanent benefits. It could mean slightly higher prices but labour transport cost is not a big cost in terms of final cost of the product.
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Thanks for the evidence CS.

I assume Beis is a unbias credible source

I think everyone knew deep down a psychological panic was in full flow and car drivers were drivers were changing their purchasing based on media stories and what others were telling them. Although no one would admit to it. We went from 17,000 litres per day to 24,000 litres per day almost overnight nearly 30% sold was panic purchase.
 
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