Fuel shortage

bear66

Well-known member
Thanks for the evidence CS.

I assume Beis is a unbias credible source

I think everyone knew deep down a psychological panic was in full flow and car drivers were drivers were changing their purchasing based on media stories and what others were telling them. Although no one would admit to it. We went from 17,000 litres per day to 24,000 litres per day almost overnight nearly 30% sold was panic purchase.
An alternative theory.

Why everything you've heard about panic buying might be wrong
 

Centralscrutinizer

Well-known member
Not sure about that logic bear. I have an alterrnative theory, we like queueing. We see a queue, we join it. Hell, most of us have joined a queue that turns out to be just a few people stood talking, not a queue at all.

Wonder if I can get funding for that study!
Queuing can pay off. I joined one down at the farmers market earlier and ended up with a bag of onion bhajis 😛
 

Anton_Berg

Well-known member
Another thing... London (where I live) probably had the biggest demand for fuel last week. 20 years ago there were 5 or 6 petrol stations within half a mile. Now there is only one and the other locations are blocks of flats. Of course this doesn't mean that they necessarily used to have more fuel available, adding all the capacity together, but it seems likely that they would do.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I didn't know this until I started watching our petrol station but diesel and unleaded are in the same tanker so it could be that diesel supplies dipped lower than usual as stations were not ordering unleaded petrol so as a consequence their diesel on site was a bit lower than generally.
Yeah I knew they can be separate compartments, from when we get bulk fuel deliveries at work. It makes sense for them to do both in one trip, as it means the tankers don't have to visit as many stations, which save fuel/ time.

But if it was an E10 issue, and they were letting "Petrol" run low, it doesn't mean the diesel would have been less, as each tanker should have had more room, and the supply systems are probably fully automated so that less of one, wouldn't mean less of another, they're not that daft, I hope.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
But if it was an E10 issue, and they were letting "Petrol" run low, it doesn't mean the diesel would have been less, as each tanker should have had more room, and the supply systems are probably fully automated so that less of one, wouldn't mean less of another, they're not that daft, I hope.
never under estimate the inefficiencies of organisations, you'd be amazed.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Thank you Andy for your agreement

So logically we can't keep expecting to recruit from EU Eastern Europe certainly on anything but a short term basis. That supply line is quickly drying up for lorry drivers and farm workers.

The options then are to train/recruit more UK based drivers or look to non EU countries say Africa and Turkey and bring people from those countries in on permits.

My preference is to make the job more attractive for UK based people, through improved working conditions and improved pay. I think those changes were be have permanent benefits. It could mean slightly higher prices but labour transport cost is not a big cost in terms of final cost of the product.
Yeah, we still have that short term (5-20 years?), until they "catch up" I suppose, but while they will catch up quick with education levels, they are probably still decades behind with their economies, infrastructure or opportunities etc. Tories will help level that up though (for the EU).

But yes, after that, recruitment will likely then target those that are further behind, or we will target other countries outside of the EU. This is what I found ironic about the racist/ xenophobic lot who wanted the Eastern Europeans out. Immigration can't stop, or we will fail, as we're not geared up to cover our own demands. So our immigration will just come from further afield, which they're going to really hate.

I would very much prefer to make it (and all other lower-paid) more attractive, with better conditions, and higher pay, but I don't really see how we do that when we're already going to struggle to compete with the EU, and especially not with the Tories in charge. Inflation will increase, competitiveness (with the EU, and the world) will get worse, businesses fail, then there ends up less jobs. Rather than have 10 people on £10, you might end up with 9 on £11, and everyone paying higher prices on everything. Also if you bump up the lower end, then the middle will want bumping up too (as higher educated/ more qualified would expect higher wages). It's not like the tories are going to tax the top end to cover the pay for the bottom end!
 

Soutra

Well-known member

I was stuck in the south of England last week, needing diesel to get back to Edinburgh.

I can categorically say that people were panic buying. The guy in the kiosk (who had a graph showing values of fuel sales in his garage that day) said of 920 transactions, 80% were for less than £25. 39% were for less than £20. So almost half of the people buying fuel were spending between £20 and £25. At the shamefully inflated price of £6.35 per gallon, that means the overwhelming majority were putting in less than 4 gallons.

I appreciate some people with Smart cars might be able to fill right up with 4 gallons, but for most cars with 10+ gallon tanks, that's less than half a tank, and in 39% of cases, less than a third of a tank.

There was no limit on what you could buy. I bought £62 worth.

Someone on here suggested a minimum purchase requirement - say £40. That was such a good idea, and would have solved the crisis overnight.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I was stuck in the south of England last week, needing diesel to get back to Edinburgh.

I can categorically say that people were panic buying. The guy in the kiosk (who had a graph showing values of fuel sales in his garage that day) said of 920 transactions, 80% were for less than £25. 39% were for less than £20. So almost half of the people buying fuel were spending between £20 and £25. At the shamefully inflated price of £6.35 per gallon, that means the overwhelming majority were putting in less than 4 gallons.

I appreciate some people with Smart cars might be able to fill right up with 4 gallons, but for most cars with 10+ gallon tanks, that's less than half a tank, and in 39% of cases, less than a third of a tank.

There was no limit on what you could buy. I bought £62 worth.

Someone on here suggested a minimum purchase requirement - say £40. That was such a good idea, and would have solved the crisis overnight.
Apparently the average spend per fill is different each day but is between £20 and £25. An industry person quoted the £25 two weeks ago but said some people were putting in £60 and some as much as £100. It sounds like, from your figures, that you were the one panicing but most weren't.
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Making a £30ish minimum fuel charge would have almost stopped people with half tanks full already, from filling up. They were more likely to be panic/insecure buyers.

Ref Lorry driver wages, putting them up is increasing costs and some impact on upward inflation, However lorry driver wages are somewhat artificially low if say £11/hour and for many years prices have been held down artificailly because of this. What is probably happening now is wages are catching up to what they would have been if they had gone up with inflation and other pay in the economy say over the last 20 years. In the past a supermarket worker did not earn almost the same as a lorry driver, but they do now £9/hour against £11/hour.

I am not against immigration, but surely the first choice as Andy says is the train people resident in the UK, but pay and conditions for them need to inprove for them to come forward. It will take many months for the impact to be felt as well.
 

Erimus74

Well-known member
Making a £30ish minimum fuel charge would have almost stopped people with half tanks full already, from filling up. They were more likely to be panic/insecure buyers.

Ref Lorry driver wages, putting them up is increasing costs and some impact on upward inflation, However lorry driver wages are somewhat artificially low if say £11/hour and for many years prices have been held down artificailly because of this. What is probably happening now is wages are catching up to what they would have been if they had gone up with inflation and other pay in the economy say over the last 20 years. In the past a supermarket worker did not earn almost the same as a lorry driver, but they do now £9/hour against £11/hour.

I am not against immigration, but surely the first choice as Andy says is the train people resident in the UK, but pay and conditions for them need to inprove for them to come forward. It will take many months for the impact to be felt as well.
Still sone way to go to increase HGV drivers wages to a level when the younger generation want to get into, still sone drivers are on £11/hour plus at the monent & when you think the hours away from home & more importantly, what they are carrying, then wages need to increase more
 

Soutra

Well-known member
It sounds like, from your figures, that you were the one panicing but most weren't.
What should I have done then? I needed to drive 400 miles, so I should have put in £25 in London, again in Nottingham, and again in Newcastle?
 

Randy

Well-known member
What should I have done then? I needed to drive 400 miles, so I should have put in £25 in London, again in Nottingham, and again in Newcastle?
Exactly.

Also minimum spend punishes those on low incomes (again).
 

bear66

Well-known member
What should I have done then? I needed to drive 400 miles, so I should have put in £25 in London, again in Nottingham, and again in Newcastle?
I was showing your measure of low value fills didn't represent panic; but, as the industry bod was saying, it was the large(r than usual) fills that were causing the problem. Increasing the minimum fill to way beyond normal fills would have exacerbated the problem.
 

Rofesleg

Well-known member
I was stuck in the south of England last week, needing diesel to get back to Edinburgh.

I can categorically say that people were panic buying. The guy in the kiosk (who had a graph showing values of fuel sales in his garage that day) said of 920 transactions, 80% were for less than £25. 39% were for less than £20. So almost half of the people buying fuel were spending between £20 and £25. At the shamefully inflated price of £6.35 per gallon, that means the overwhelming majority were putting in less than 4 gallons.

I appreciate some people with Smart cars might be able to fill right up with 4 gallons, but for most cars with 10+ gallon tanks, that's less than half a tank, and in 39% of cases, less than a third of a tank.

There was no limit on what you could buy. I bought £62 worth.

Someone on here suggested a minimum purchase requirement - say £40. That was such a good idea, and would have solved the crisis overnight.
I bet the long queue of panic buyers were going mental while the guy in the kiosk was chatting away with you whilst analysing his graphs.
 
Top
X