You need to look deeper Andy, simple as that. Most articles include brexit as a factor which I don't disagree with. Let me make my point once more and argue with that. Whilst leaving the EU has had an impact we would be exactly where we are now without leaving the EU.
That is a fact. Had we lost no uk drivers without replacing them we would be a couple of hundred drivers short of our 2010 high.
Some of your other assertions are, quite frankly, ridiculous. Polish drivers are less well educated than UK drivers and less inspirational.
We can't just give the low paid wage increases because of inflation. Yes we can and yes it will lead to higher prices but we will be then paying what we should be paying. In real terms food prices have plummeted and a correction wouldn't be a bad thing.
However much more important is the awful working conditions which is the main driver for people leaving the industry not brexit. That's right not brexit. If isn't even the single biggest reason for EU drivers leaving the industry.
I need to look deeper? The RHA has looked into this deep enough I reckon. It's blindingly obvious Brexit would have a massive effect on any EU workers/ immigration, that's what it is expressly designed to do, and it is putting us on our knees. The EU is managing much better in practically every aspect (drivers, labour, gas, covid, economy growth, GDP forecasts etc), wonder what the big thing is that affected us and not them? I wonder.
Why would an EU worker come here, with all the extra hassle, we're an absolute nightmare, and half the "adults" don't want them here. If we hadn't left and hadn't been ramping up hate for the last 5 years then it is very likely EU drivers would have grown like they were, and not gone off a cliff.
We can't not lose UK drivers, it's too late for that, that problem was created at least a decade ago and it takes years to correct it, and then years to gain experience, and the tories have had zero interest in trying to correct it, and can't go back in time. All the experience is retiring or moving into other lines of work, the top of the tree is being cut off and it is extremely unlikely to be able to feed it from the bottom. The young have zero interest in being a trucker, that will not change, automation will cut it further. Even if the pay was double it wouldn't tempt many of the smarter young lads, as they would know it's a 20-year career at best.
I reckon if you asked 1000 people who has a better education system, better average education per capita and better job prospects/ earnings, they would pick the UK over Poland, Romania etc, god knows for how long mind.
We can pay more (and the same for every other low paid job), I'm not saying we can't but I'm saying it has to increase inflation, which is already higher than earnings growth and will outdo GDP growth. A booming economy can much easier accept wage increases, a struggling one that has just kicked its no 1 trade parter into touch, can't. The person that pays the price for this is everyone, the one who suffers most is the least well off, 10% gain in wages one year, but hyperinflation for years. Yes this may benefit the truckers short term (if they go back to the trade), but it means some other trade like construction etc would lose out, then that means construction workers will want more, it becomes a feedback loop. The tories won't implement additional taxes on the rich and give to those worse off, it's not exactly their mantra, and a prime example of this is the universal credit cuts. The wrong party is in charge for that, but they came hand in hand with brexit.
HGV's are a trade people are losing interest in, especially the younger lot, and especially those from the UK who have plenty of other options. EU drivers from the worse off places have far fewer options, so they're the only ones willing to do it, except we've shut the door and the more wealthy nations in the EU are a better prospect than us, again because of Brexit and the Tories.
