Fuel shortage

[bear66]

This article is quite interesting suggesting there is a general staff shortage coming to the western world more generally where jobs are low paid. It's from cbn so no idea how we'll researched it is but there are some quotes in it.

After causing chaos in the UK, truck driver shortages could soon hit the rest of Europe

Brexit was named as one of the key reasons for the shortage of HGV drivers in the U.K., but there are deeper issues.

www.cnbc.com

I also read this morning that we have had just 127 applications for emergency visas from EU truck drivers.

That's more than I expected in the first week. The limit is 300 at the moment. It's also more than the 100 military tanker drivers.

 

[Laughing]

That's more than I expected in the first week. The limit is 300 at the moment. It's also more than the 100 military tanker drivers.

It's not going to make much of a dent, I wouldn't have thought though.

I was more interested in the quote mentioning other low paid industries across europe "may be" heading toward staffing issues. It says something quite bad about the western world.

 

[bear66]

It's not going to make much of a dent, I wouldn't have thought though.

I was more interested in the quote mentioning other low paid industries across europe "may be" heading toward staffing issues. It says something quite bad about the western world.

It was deliberately intended to not make a dent as Brexit must cause chaos to be a success. (I think that's the Tory Party line this week.)

 

[Laughing]

It was deliberately intended to not make a dent as Brexit must cause chaos to be a success. (I think that's the Tory Party line this week.)

You may be right. I have no idea what the government are trying to achieve. Johnson, I assume, is trying to stay in his council flat and perhaps the rest of the cabinet are just trying to keep their jobs. Who knows. I do think Johnsons days are about over.

 

[bear66]

You may be right. I have no idea what the government are trying to achieve. Johnson, I assume, is trying to stay in his council flat and perhaps the rest of the cabinet are just trying to keep their jobs. Who knows. I do think Johnsons days are about over.

I was pleasantly surprised to hear Tory MP Jake Berry speaking like a normal person yesterday. He sounded like an ardent socialist compared with this government.

 

[zzzzz]

You may be right. I have no idea what the government are trying to achieve. Johnson, I assume, is trying to stay in his council flat and perhaps the rest of the cabinet are just trying to keep their jobs. Who knows. I do think Johnsons days are about over.

Who's gonna shift him?
He surrounds himself with nobodies and halfwits.
This government is lurching from one disaster to another yet I've seen hardly any dissent or challenge from within the Conservatives.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

You may be right. I have no idea what the government are trying to achieve. Johnson, I assume, is trying to stay in his council flat and perhaps the rest of the cabinet are just trying to keep their jobs. Who knows. I do think Johnsons days are about over.

I think his people have factored in that he's an incompetent liar. I wouldn't be amazed if the Tory MPs tried to get rid and the members vote him back in.

 

[bear66]

Who's gonna shift him?
He surrounds himself with nobodies and halfwits.
This government is lurching from one disaster to another yet I've seen hardly any dissent or challenge from within the Conservatives.

Jake Berry did yesterday.

 

[Erimus74]

In my job on a chemical site I work daily with HGV drivers, loading / offloading fuels, chemical tankers & the same mesage is, its an ageing industry, low paid jobs, long hours, many away from home all week, 15 hour days is not uncommon, with the average age 55 plus
Why would youngsters want to be stuck on overnight journeys when they can most likely get a similar wage working better hours & home most nights with their families

Hopefully what is coming & starting to happen is a big improvement in wages, it has to be attractive for the younger generation to show interest

 

[chickenrunner]

In my job on a chemical site I work daily with HGV drivers, loading / offloading fuels, chemical tankers & the same mesage is, its an ageing industry, low paid jobs, long hours, mant away from home all week, 15 hour days is not uncommon, with the average age 55 plus
Why would youngsters want to be stuck on overnight journeys when they can most likely get a similar wage working better hours & home most nights with their families

Hopefully what is coming & starting to happen is a big improvement in wages, it has to be attractive for the younger generation to show interest

Along with a rise in wages we need to show greater respect to those that are considered to be in unskilled employment, delivery people, careworkers, shop workers, people in the hospitality industry. The pandemic has shown how many of them are in reality 'key' workers regardless of their job skills. I've said before on here that when your Amazon parcel is delivered for free the person paying for it is the person handing you the parcel who is most likely 'falsely' self employed with zero employment rights (no sick pay, pension, holidays, etc., etc.,.......)

 

[Andy_W]

From your linked article
"It led a logistics thinktank led by Driver Require to conclude “EU drivers leaving the UK did not significantly contribute to the current shortage”, in a new report published this week."

12,500 have gone back to the EU but there are 250,000 qualified in the UK but doing something else. There's a 1-week recertification needed but the data suggests that higher wages could sort it fairly quickly.

The UK drivers reducing is the main problem, but it's not going to be solved by trained/ experienced people from the UK (certainly not ina hurry), our numbers have been declining for over a decade, and nothing has stopped that. The problem is created in one area (mainly), but often needs to be solved in another.

EU drivers were on the way up, the idea is we replace our divers with EU drivers as they were the only ones who wanted to do it.

I employ three HGV drivers, none of them move goods around for the UK, and they never will, as the HGV aspect is a small part of their job. They get paid more than HGV drives and don't have to live/ sleep out, they stay in hotels when working away etc (which is rare). There are loads in this position.

There are not 250k HGV drivers sat at home, doing nothing, holding the UK to ransom. Yes, there may be a few qualified not working, who have retired, but they're not going to be the solution.

Higher wages is not a fix, it's an inflation "driver", just like how all our other problems cannot be "fixed" by throwing money at them (that we don't have), certainly not for those worst off. If the cost of goods transport goes up to us (but not the EU), we again lose more market share, for anything reliant on goods transport (which is a almost everything).

The only way we can up UK driver numbers is by lowering standards and experience level requirements and increasing pay, but all that means is worse standards and higher inflation. Is that what the brexit lot voted for?

 

[Laughing]

The UK drivers reducing is the main problem, but it's not going to be solved by trained/ experienced people from the UK (certainly not ina hurry), our numbers have been declining for over a decade, and nothing has stopped that. The problem is created in one area (mainly), but often needs to be solved in another.

EU drivers were on the way up, the idea is we replace our divers with EU drivers as they were the only ones who wanted to do it.

I employ three HGV drivers, none of them move goods around for the UK, and they never will, as the HGV aspect is a small part of their job. They get paid more than HGV drives and don't have to live/ sleep out, they stay in hotels when working away etc (which is rare). There are loads in this position.

There are not 250k HGV drivers sat at home, doing nothing, holding the UK to ransom. Yes, there may be a few qualified not working, who have retired, but they're not going to be the solution.

Higher wages is not a fix, it's an inflation "driver", just like how all our other problems cannot be "fixed" by throwing money at them (that we don't have), certainly not for those worst off. If the cost of goods transport goes up to us (but not the EU), we again lose more market share, for anything reliant on goods transport (which is a almost everything).

The only way we can up UK driver numbers is by lowering standards and experience level requirements and increasing pay, but all that means is worse standards and higher inflation. Is that what the brexit lot voted for?

Wages do need to rise and conditions need to be better across all lower paid jobs. If you are working full time you shouldn't need tax payers support to live. This is partly due to increasing house prices and no social housing but not exclusively.

It appears that pay for hgv drivets is quite a bit higher in some EU countries and they are still heading towards an hgv crisis as they are with other lower paid jobs.

Something in the way that Western economies work has to change and paying all full time workers a wage that they can live on and afford the odd luxury is not asking for a lot.

Yes it will drive inflation up but stop spending our money on crap we don't need might be a start on controlling inflation. Too many have got used to changing their phone every 18 months along with their TV and car. It's not really sustainable.

 

[Andy_W]

It's 50k uk drivers in just over 18 months not 10 years,you really are not interpreting that data in an open minded way. You have an opinion and you are trying to fit that to your opinion.

If this was brexit then we wouldn't see an uptick in EU drivers in q2, would we straight after brexit. That interpretation doesn't make any sense.

You believe that drivers from the EU started to leave I 2015 because of the EU referendum. Probably not, its much more likely they were getting fed up of the working conditions same as UK drivers. Same cause for both EU and UK drivers is far more likely than 2 disparate reasons for the same effect, occams razor applies here.

If it was brexit why the 25% increase in EU drivers in 3 months after brexit?

You are picking your data points to suite your opinion. I picked the point of brexit and the time after that you pick 2019 because it is the highpoint of EU drivers not for any other reason.

Read what the RHA are saying, they know more than you do, and my opinion aligns with theirs.

Driver Shortage: RHA and freight industry write to Prime Minister Boris Johnson

www.rha.uk.net

UK warned visa plan to fix truck driver shortage will not solve crunch

Britain’s decision to issue temporary visas for 5,000 foreign truck drivers is a short-term fix that will not solve an acute labour shortage that risks major disruption for retailers in the run-up to Christmas, business leaders have warned.

www.reuters.com

The UK's Road Haulage Association (RHA) says Britain is facing a shortage of some 100,000 drivers, a result of workers leaving the industry, Brexit and the pandemic, which put a stop to driver training and testing for about a year.



It's a combination of factors, why do you not accept that brexit has prevented us from plugging the holes, when all the associations and employers are saying it is?

Not 2015, or even 2016, as you all thought you were going to get "the best deal", but that slowly changed to teh worst deal over three years, then by 2019 is was "worst deal", and so much anti-EU crap in the papers.

There's a demand for drivers everywhere as we're coming out of the pandemic, which explains a 20% (5k) increase, after the 50% decrease (20k) decrease.

2019 was when the worst deal ever was effectively locked in, by the tory vote, this is when all the migration rules were basically set in stone. They didn't need many reasons to go back to working in the EU but that was a big one, and there was no way of recovering that loss during a pandemic, and pst pandemic, not when the EU needs drivers too.

We should have been bending over backwards to keep the FOM door open for all the trades in need (HGV, Labour, skilled workers etc), but most trades are in need, so it makes not having blanket FOM completely stupid, the same as with no customs union, another thing screwing the HGV's going to/ from europe.

The UK HGV drivers won't list brexit as a reason, as it's not in their interest too, as they're not the transport managers, not the client, and not the rest of us relying on whole industry. The UK drivers probably want less EU workers, as it is less competition which will lead to more pay and but probably not better living standards and certainly not driver standards (see reduced test requirements). This is a counter to what their employers and the UK economy needs though, certainly not now when brexit is also biting them in other areas.

 

[Laughing]

Read what the RHA are saying, they know more than you do, and my opinion aligns with theirs.

Driver Shortage: RHA and freight industry write to Prime Minister Boris Johnson

www.rha.uk.net

UK warned visa plan to fix truck driver shortage will not solve crunch

Britain’s decision to issue temporary visas for 5,000 foreign truck drivers is a short-term fix that will not solve an acute labour shortage that risks major disruption for retailers in the run-up to Christmas, business leaders have warned.

www.reuters.com

The UK's Road Haulage Association (RHA) says Britain is facing a shortage of some 100,000 drivers, a result of workers leaving the industry, Brexit and the pandemic, which put a stop to driver training and testing for about a year.

View attachment 25603

It's a combination of factors, why do you not accept that brexit has prevented us from plugging the holes, when all the associations and employers are saying it is?

Not 2015, or even 2016, as you all thought you were going to get "the best deal", but that slowly changed to teh worst deal over three years, then by 2019 is was "worst deal", and so much anti-EU crap in the papers.

There's a demand for drivers everywhere as we're coming out of the pandemic, which explains a 20% (5k) increase, after the 50% decrease (20k) decrease.

2019 was when the worst deal ever was effectively locked in, by the tory vote, this is when all the migration rules were basically set in stone. They didn't need many reasons to go back to working in the EU but that was a big one, and there was no way of recovering that loss during a pandemic, and pst pandemic, not when the EU needs drivers too.

We should have been bending over backwards to keep the FOM door open for all the trades in need (HGV, Labour, skilled workers etc), but most trades are in need, so it makes not having blanket FOM completely stupid, the same as with no customs union, another thing screwing the HGV's going to/ from europe.

The UK HGV drivers won't list brexit as a reason, as it's not in their interest too, as they're not the transport managers, not the client, and not the rest of us relying on whole industry. The UK drivers probably want less EU workers, as it is less competition which will lead to more pay and but probably not better living standards and certainly not driver standards (see reduced test requirements). This is a counter to what their employers and the UK economy needs though, certainly not now when brexit is also biting them in other areas.

Because EU drivers wouldn't have plugged the gap, it is that simple. We aren't 12k drivers short we are 100k drivers short and increasing.

I agree that leaving the EU would have made some drivers head home, and who can blame them. It wouldn't have made any difference we are where we are for other reasons and according to the article I linked to mainland europe are heading in the same direction and not just with driver shortages.

You interpret the data the way you see fit, of course, it just isnt true. I have linked numerous driver comments both from UK drivers and EU drivers on why they are abandoning the proffession but as always your opinion is immutable and it wouldn't matter what evidence you were shown you would interpret it to support your view point and that's also fine but let's not pretend you debate, you don't you come with an opinion and that's you done.

 

[Andy_W]

Because EU drivers wouldn't have plugged the gap, it is that simple. We aren't 12k drivers short we are 100k drivers short and increasing.

I agree that leaving the EU would have made some drivers head home, and who can blame them. It wouldn't have made any difference we are where we are for other reasons and according to the article I linked to mainland europe are heading in the same direction and not just with driver shortages.

You interpret the data the way you see fit, of course, it just isnt true. I have linked numerous driver comments both from UK drivers and EU drivers on why they are abandoning the proffession but as always your opinion is immutable and it wouldn't matter what evidence you were shown you would interpret it to support your view point and that's also fine but let's not pretend you debate, you don't you come with an opinion and that's you done.

EU drivers were growing, between 2015 to 2017 they doubled, forget the raw numbers for now, the percentage increase was the numbers were 200% over two years, this could have continued, to some degree, had we let it. But numbers stagnated for a few years (awaiting brexit situation/ brexit arriving), and then declined once the FOM was kicked into touch and a big customs border put into place.

If EU driver numbers had gone up two years (18 and 19) at 50% (to 60k) it would have made up the loss in UK drivers in that two years, then it would have only had to go up 10% a year to maintain our UK driver losses, hardly groundbreaking compared to the 100% it was going up. but instead it went down 50% (reversing that 100% gain), right around the time our "deal" was known.

We're in a crisis, the EU are not, and they don't appear to be near one, especially when the drivers that would have been here, have gone back over there. Obviously, FOM makes their problems much easier to solve than ours. If they do end up in a crisis, then our crisis would have got twice as bad. Would you point to the house two miles away, saying "that could catch fire", when your own house is already on fire?

My opinion is aligned with many others, like the Road Haulage Association (I reckon they would know), the only ones saying it isn't is the Tory responsible (the transport minister), the clowns that have been pushing for Brexit and the ones who have had their wages double as a result of it. There's a lot of bias from the tories, the far-right press, brexiters etc, but anyone middle of the road or independent can see why EU drivers have gone.

I'm not even arguing against brexit, I'm arguing against the version we have ended up with (not the version 50% of brexiters wanted), had we just let and stayed with FOM, CU and SM, even if it was for 10 years whilst we found our feet, it would have made this so much easier.

I had a quick look for more data, but all I could find was this from ONS:

HGV drivers by nationality - Office for National Statistics

www.ons.gov.uk

I wish I could easily access the raw numbers and be bothered to plot the two lines on a graph.

 

[Redwurzel]

We can't rely on going to mainland Europe (mainly Eastern Europe) for more and more drivers, for ever.

Drivers wages in this country has been poor for a while now, while demand for their serivces is increasing.

Someone from a haulage company came on here (worked in the offices) and said drivers were paid £11/hour before this crisis, that can't be right can it?

For many cargoes the drivers wages are a tiny % of the value of the cargo, in fact it was not surprise me if the fuel used cost more than the drivers wages. How sad is that.

 

[Ironops]

Higher wages will no doubt attract some people into the profession but the prospect of spending 4-5 nights a week away will always put people off - plus sleeping in a cab, lack of showers etc. Its just not an attractive prospect long term

 

[boroboy6872]

No surprise they are low paid when they are listed 5th bottom of the skills table set out in SOC2020

 

[Erimus74]

We can't rely on going to mainland Europe (mainly Eastern Europe) for more and more drivers, for ever.

Drivers wages in this country has been poor for a while now, while demand for their serivces is increasing.

Someone from a haulage company came on here (worked in the offices) and said drivers were paid £11/hour before this crisis, that can't be right can it?

For many cargoes the drivers wages are a tiny % of the value of the cargo, in fact it was not surprise me if the fuel used cost more than the drivers wages. How sad is that.

It is true red, sadly I know
I feel for the drivers who I talk to, long hours stuck behind a wheel & some of the product they're sat on too

 

[Laughing]

Not sure why I am bothering Andy, but looking just at ONS data UK and EU drivers increased up until 2017, as did the total driver workforce, as you would expect.

Since 2017 BOTH UK drivers and EU drivers have left the industry. You say UK drivers left for one reason and EU drivers left for another, stating how the UK workforce was better educated than the Eu drivers and that was the reason tfor the UK driver fall off. The you argue that a potential UK driver will have higher aspirations than a Polish driver..

The data shows a drop off for both data sets, but you think its for different reasons, is that right? Because if it is there is no point having the discussion. The data doesn't say that, that is your interpretation based on your viewpoint.


From the cnbc article, which I have no idea of its veracity or if the quotes are taken out of context:

The U.K. is not alone when it comes to driver shortages, however, and experts warn that parts of Continental Europe could also face their own trucker shortfalls soon enough.
"We're not in as dramatic and desperate situation yet, but it might come," Frank Huster, director general at the Federal Association for Freight Forwarding and Logistics Germany, told CNBC on Thursday.
He noted that while Brexit has "certainly had an impact" on the U.K., the wider European haulage sector faced a long-standing problem with a lack of workers.
"The logistics sector lacks qualified personnel such as lorry drivers but also trained locomotive drivers, inland navigation workers, terminal workers, as well as management people. ... We have less and less people to work in Western markets," he added.

Analysis company Transport Intelligence published research in August looking at "European Driver Shortages" in which it assessed the severity of the shortfalls in various European countries, a problem it said had been growing over recent years. It estimated that across Europe the total shortfall of drivers now surpasses 400,000, with the most heavily impacted European countries being Poland, the U.K. and Germany.

Transport Intelligence's research looked at driver shortages across Europe
Transport Intelligence
John Manners-Bell, CEO of Transport Intelligence and an expert on global supply chains and logistics, said that the industry has been warning governments of shortages for many years.
In an editorial last week he said that "disruption to supply, rising prices, reports of empty shelves and – most recently – the fuel crisis, have shone a spotlight on the industry. Long-term structural problems have been laid bare by a perfect storm of post-Covid demand volatility, infrastructure failings, bureaucracy, Brexit and dismal pay and conditions."
"Factors such as delays to HGV testing; inefficiency in processing licenses; an ageing workforce and insufficient numbers of new recruits, due to working conditions and image issues of the profession, have been plaguing the industry for many years," he added.
Manners-Bell said he hoped the current crisis would bring about positive changes in the industry, noting that "it is time that all stakeholders in the sector – industry associations, the government, operators and shippers – throw their support behind plans to make road freight transport fit for purpose as a driver for sustainable economic growth."

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