SmallTown
Well-known member
Even accounting for Sunday stats that’s really good newsLowest number of new deaths in all settings reported since 14th March.
Even accounting for Sunday stats that’s really good newsLowest number of new deaths in all settings reported since 14th March.
If it's 40 or so then the trend is significantly down from last week so it'll show improvement. If it's triple figures I genuinely will be worried. It's still a bit too high if so. Time will tell.But you are correct as @Alvez_48 has already stated.
Fully expecting the country to crap it's pants again tomorrow though when it's announced that 40 or so have unfortunately passed.
Anyone know the calculation which tells 1 in 1700 people have the virus?
Which on turn is skewing the R number guesswork.It’s from the ONS infection survey which is published every two weeks. Latest findings in the link below.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020
Important to highlight that this estimate relates purely to the infection rate in the community. It doesn’t include institutions such as hospitals, care homes or prisons, where the infection rate is likely to be significantly higher.
Which on turn is skewing the R number guesswork.
They should have isolated these places right at the beginning. Then today's picture would be very different to what it looks like now.I know what you mean, but it's not really 'skewing' the number as such.
It's true that there are higher rates of infection and reproduction within these institutions. The problem is that, although they might appear so, these places are not really closed systems, so you can't isolate what's happening within them from the community in which they operate.
Take prisons for example. Even though they are obvioulsy relatively isolated settings (and they've suspended prison visits), you still have prison officers travelling in and out from the community, suppliers arriving and leaving, prisoners being released back into the community on completion of sentence, transfers to hospital where necessary (where staff and other patients are travelling in/out), people being remanded who might subsequently be released on bail, and so on.
And that's just prisons. Hospitals and care homes are, by nature, much more open systems than prisons. So you can't really separate what's happening in these institutions and assume that it won't impact the local community.
I see the excess deaths are coming down too, despite the vulnerable and care homes still shielding.
Time for some honesty over the figures.
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