The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Apologies for being late on parade today. Been tied up with work.

You may remember that I pointed out the government had altered the way in which it reports new deaths the other day, by discounting 109 deaths as being historical (despite historical deaths usually being counted on the day they are announced). Had they been included in the daily count, the 7-day average for new deaths would have now increased for 4 of the past 6 days.

Also of note in today's statistics is that the 7-day average for deaths in UK hospitals has also increased (for the first time in 3 weeks), alongside the average for deaths in all settings.
 
Billy are the rises statistically significant at the moment, or could the rises be a blip? I can add up, but statistics are not my forte.
Forecasting is a bit of a dark art. It’s much easier to say what has happened rather than trying to predict what will.

However, my reading of things (both for infections and deaths) is that we’re starting to plateau a bit. If you compare the averages with where we were 1 or 2 weeks ago, they are still going down, but these individual daily rises would suggest that the rate of change is likely to slow.

I suppose the question is how significant such a plateauing would be?

It might be partly due to the fact that we’ve now got lower numbers, so some fluctuation is more likely. That said, if you compare us with other European countries, they appear to have sustained their decreases well past this point, so it’s worrying in that respect.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 27 June, there have been 9,067,577 tests, with 155,359 tests on 26 June.

310,250 people have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 26 June, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, across all settings, 43,514 have died.

0.3% increase in positive tests with 246 Pillar 1. Today, 100 deaths were announced.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 246 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, virtually unchanged from yesterday's 247
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 5.8%, following 6.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 20.6% lower than one week ago (from 18.3% lower yesterday) and 27.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 24.4% lower yesterday and 31.8% lower 7 days ago)
• 100 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 184 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 3.3%, following 1.3% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 12.0% lower than one week ago (from 13.9% lower yesterday) and 31.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 30.8% lower yesterday and 43.6% lower 7 days ago)
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 28 June, there have been 9,195,132 tests, with 127,709 tests on 27 June.

311,151 people have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 27 June, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, across all settings, 43,550 have died.

0.3% increase in infections with 169 Pillar 1. 36 deaths announced.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 169 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 246
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 8.7%, following 5.8% decrease yesterday (and third consecutive decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 26.7% lower than one week ago (from 20.6% lower yesterday) and 35.4% lower than two weeks ago (from 27.3% lower yesterday and 29.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 36 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 100 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 0.9%, following 3.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 13.4% lower than one week ago (from 12.0% lower yesterday) and 30.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 31.8% lower yesterday and 41.9% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 169 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 246
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 8.7%, following 5.8% decrease yesterday (and third consecutive decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 26.7% lower than one week ago (from 20.6% lower yesterday) and 35.4% lower than two weeks ago (from 27.3% lower yesterday and 29.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 36 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 100 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 0.9%, following 3.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 13.4% lower than one week ago (from 12.0% lower yesterday) and 30.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 31.8% lower yesterday and 41.9% lower 7 days ago)
Can anyone explain what these figures are telling us?
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
I really would have hoped (I mean who wouldn't) for lower numbers of both infections and deaths than what we're seeing by now but then like Chris says regarding infections if it's close to 150,000 unique people tested a day it would make sense to still find 700-1000 a day considering the wider community testing.

The issue with deaths is what % are now in hospital with positive test.
A couple of weeks ago there was a day for sure where of the 100 or so people who had died (within hospital) 30 of them did not have a positive test.

Now within community we know that many are being classified without positive test but thankfully excess deaths are at normal levels again (for last weeks release only mind).

If we continue to see that tomorrow it might be due to covids status as being a notifiable disease rather than prevalence of the virus.
 
I really would have hoped (I mean who wouldn't) for lower numbers of both infections and deaths than what we're seeing by now but then like Chris says regarding infections if it's close to 150,000 unique people tested a day it would make sense to still find 700-1000 a day considering the wider community testing.

The issue with deaths is what % are now in hospital with positive test.
A couple of weeks ago there was a day for sure where of the 100 or so people who had died (within hospital) 30 of them did not have a positive test.

Now within community we know that many are being classified without positive test but thankfully excess deaths are at normal levels again (for last weeks release only mind).

If we continue to see that tomorrow it might be due to covids status as being a notifiable disease rather than prevalence of the virus.
I've only really been paying attention to hospital deaths and admissions the past week.

We are told hospitals are running back at pre pandemic levels now.
 
Top