Scotland v England

changingman said:
they looked incredibly well organised, compact in and out of possession, defensively solid and very difficult to beat.
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But they didn't.

Against Spain they conceded 16 shots, their conceded xG was close to 2. So for a team that is compact, and defensively solid, those stats don't paint that picture.

Before their game to spain, they lost on xG against Belgium - Belgium putting up nearly 2xG again.

Sorry, but they weren't organised and defensively solid as much as you suggest.

They rode their luck and ended up winning. Fair play to them.
 
xG meh

Spain were incredibly unlucky not to beat them, they matched up well with Italy.......and we would have beaten that spain team in all likelihood.
 
I mentioned home venue no crowd as it was still a very odd scenario in covid post covid era so the task facing Italy was huge.
 
BoroMart said:
xG meh

Spain were incredibly unlucky not to beat them, they matched up well with Italy.......and we would have beaten that spain team in all likelihood.
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Is it luck or poor finishing though (in practice, probably a bit of both).

Parallels with Boro's start to the season where we've outperformed most teams in xG yet results haven't mirrored that. General consensus is poor finishing?

It does suggest that Italy struggled to limit Spain's chance creation though, and but for better finishing, they would have been out. The stats I've just looked at had that as the only game where Italy were outperformed in xG though I think?
 
changingman said:
It does suggest that Italy struggled to limit Spain's chance creation though, and but for better finishing, they would have been out. The stats I've just looked at had that as the only game where Italy were outperformed in xG though I think?
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Nope.

Outperformed on xG by Belgium too.
 
Jedi boro said:
Come on foden has never been the same since the naughty step incident as Gareth clearly has an issue with him hence his calling him out yesterday in that odd comment and taking him off when he eiyh Bellingham were running the show.

Will he start v Italy then ???
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Gareth doesn't have an issue with him. All he ever does is sings his praises, including in his comments this week if you look beyond the headlines.

Will he start against Italy? I don't know and neither do you. Saka is technically the man in possession of the right wing slot and he's done nothing to deserve being dropped. Rashford is a huge threat when played on the left. Bellingham is rightly given a free role to dictate the game. Personally I believe Foden would be a more than adequate replacement in any of those positions, but we are not talking about mediocre players keeping him out of the team.

The problem is Southgate can't win. If he plays Bellingham alongside Rice to accommodate Foden behind Kane and Saka and Rashford out wide and Italy overruns our midfield, he'll get pelters. Even if we won with that team, there would be plenty of people pre-match claiming he is clueless for not picking Maddison and Grealish. Don't believe me? Well even you posted last night "what does Eze have to do to get a game?"
 
Marvanelli said:
Nope.

Outperformed on xG by Belgium too.
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total xG is kinda irrelevant though, if you give 10 chances at an xG of 0.1xG per chance, that is quite likely to lead to a cleansheet off a total xG against you of 1.0, it would take an absolute worldie of a finish to score of a 0.1xG shot.

However if you create 2 chances in the same game at 0.4, you have been outperformed on xG 1.0 to 0.8, yet your better chances could very well lead to a win.

xG is far more nuanced than it is being described here.
 
BoroMart said:
total xG is kinda irrelevant though, if you give 10 chances at an xG of 0.1xG per chance, that is quite likely to lead to a cleansheet off a total xG against you of 1.0, it would take an absolute worldie of a finish to score of a 0.1xG shot.

However if you create 2 chances in the same game at 0.4, you have been outperformed on xG 1.0 to 0.8, yet your better chances could very well lead to a win.

xG is far more nuanced than it is being described here.
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It's based on probabilities.

Give me 10 shots at 0.1xG, over 2 shots of 0.4xG, every single day of the week.

You will, without doubt, win more games if you posted 1.0 xG compared to 0.8 xG. That's regardless of the quality of chances.

xG has flaws, but it's the best stat out there when comparing both teams during a game.
 
Marvanelli said:
It's based on probabilities.

Give me 10 shots at 0.1xG, over 2 shots of 0.4xG, every single day of the week.

You will, without doubt, win more games if you posted 1.0 xG compared to 0.8 xG. That's regardless of the quality of chances.

xG has flaws, but it's the best stat out there when comparing both teams during a game.
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I'm not arguing it's the best stat out there, but I'd take the two big chances to 10 half chances. Particularly if you are facing one of the best goalkeepers in the world. If you are playing against some scrappy league two team, maybe the half chances will go in, but against the Italian keeper? One of the issues with xG is it doesn't take into account the talent you face. Only where you are on the pitch when you shoot and the type of shot you take.

Bottom line is, no one got many chances against Italy, that are easy, unchallenged, and where you are favourite to beat the keeper, regardless of the xG stats. Spain should have won the game but that was one tough Italian defence to crack.
 
Both Spain and Belgium created nearly 2xG.

Granted a portion of the xG against Belgium was the Lukaku penalty, but still, those figures don't suggest to me they were a tough defence to crack.
 
Great performance from England last night, when plenty thought the occasion would be a leveller.

Really enjoyed watching it.

600 wins for England now in 1047 games, the 2nd most of any country in the world (Brazil have 660 in 1037 games).

Though England have also played more matches than any country, and 47 of the wins were before international football expanded beyond the British Isles.
 
BoroMart said:
experienced alternatives are required. That experience will grow over coming months for the alternative options. As stated above don't underestimate the cultural damage caused by discarding players in a blame type culture, rather than giving other people opportunities to take the position. Certainly last night Philips and Dunk put pressure on Henderson and Maguire. FWIW when stones is fit he will replace Maguire alongside one of Colwill/Guehi/Dunk in the team. Heerson might be backup to Philips too. It's a friendly vs Australia, but with a crunch match at home to Italy a few days later. Anyone who does well for 60 mins vs Aus will probably start vs Italy.
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I’ll be amazed if both Maguire and Henderson don’t start against Italy (unless injured), I really hope I am wrong but I don’t see Southgate suddenly dropping them both after starting them against Ukraine.

I hope you are right that they both won’t be near the starting 11 come the Euros but suspect at least one of them will be.
 
Pak_Doo_Ik said:
I’ll be amazed if both Maguire and Henderson don’t start against Italy (unless injured), I really hope I am wrong but I don’t see Southgate suddenly dropping them both after starting them against Ukraine.

I hope you are right that they both won’t be near the starting 11 come the Euros but suspect at least one of them will be.
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Lets not forget that people complained he wouldn't stop picking his favourite Sterling not that long ago. He'll ease them out but he won't throw inexperienced internationals under a bus to do so. That's his way and it's worked so far.
 
Pak_Doo_Ik said:
I’ll be amazed if both Maguire and Henderson don’t start against Italy (unless injured), I really hope I am wrong but I don’t see Southgate suddenly dropping them both after starting them against Ukraine.

I hope you are right that they both won’t be near the starting 11 come the Euros but suspect at least one of them will be.
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Of course they will as they are A team
 
alvez_49 said:
What makes you a better judge? I'm simply pointing out that this board views Southgate differently to anyone else.

No top club will have him, you know it. I know it.

He's a friendly guy who has underachieved with the best England generation in my lifetime. Can't fight the facts.
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I'm not a better judge than anyone else, I'm just another numpty like most fans.
But I haven't given my judgement or opinion I've just pointed out what is factual.
That compared to every other England manager in the last 50 years he's been very very successful. It's also a fact that many of those managers had more players at their disposal who were considered World Class than now.
It's also a fact that Southgate has won more knockout games in major tournaments than his previous TEN predecessors put together.
It's a fact that under Southgate we've scored more goals at a Euros, more Goals at a World Cup and more goals in a year than with any other manager.
It's a fact he was the first England manager to reach a final in 55 long years.
It's a fact England were a shambles when he took over and had been incredibly poor in the 4 or 5 tournaments before he took over.

It's ironic that you say "can't fight the facts" whilst not giving a single one, just your opinion.
My opinion is worth nowt, so I haven't given you it just what has actually happened under Southgate. I'd rather rely on that than cliches and some divvys on Reddit.
 
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