YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

dorivasmiddlefinger said:
3 additional conservative councillors in Stockton. How does that sit with the polls?
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It could be a sign that every single opinion poll is completely wrong and that Rishi will increase the Tory majority to over 150 seats, particularly when the benefits of Brexit come through, (as the gammons are now saying they are), and inflation and interest rates come down over the next 12 months just in time for the election. NHS insurance based plan to sell to the cap doffers because you know it’s all failing at the moment and make sure the statistics show that less boats are landing next year.

Sorted, I should be a Tory strategy man.
 
exiledinboro said:
Interesting

You do realise if that poll is correct the Tories vote will drop by 50%

Or assuming the same turnout just under 7 million voters?
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Not sure if you got my point?

Was comparing a minority positive Tory result with the wider and much much better Labour Council election results.

Pretty sure the poster I quoted was trying to use it to down play recent polls, which it doesn't in anyway.
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
Boundary changes. Strong Labour areas have fewer representative's than at the last election, strong Conservative areas given more, with lines redrawn to allow it.
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The polls say nothing about local by-elections. Thats what they have to say about 3 additional tory councillors
 
exiledinboro said:
I completely got your point

And as I said it would mean the Tories vote drops 50% and in voter numbers. That's a drop of 7 million voters. Something we've never seen

And council elections are not reflecting the general election polls
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This Tory government is like nothing we've ever seen before, so hopefully a similar never seen before electoral wipe out will follow.
 
Pardon my ignorance, and it may have been explained earlier in the thread. Are those figures based on the number of votes? Do they normally translate into a similar breakdown of seats?
Also I see it excludes 'do not knows', do we know how significant that figure is?
Thanks.
 
Rofesleg said:
Pardon my ignorance, and it may have been explained earlier in the thread. Are those figures based on the number of votes? Do they normally translate into a similar breakdown of seats?
Also I see it excludes 'do not knows', do we know how significant that figure is?
Thanks.
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I have asked a few times about don’t knows as I think most of them will either not vote or vote Tory and affect the results quite a bit…
I saw one poll where the DKs were roughly half the size of those voting Tory 🤷🏼‍♂️
 
xxlshirts_fit_all said:
I have asked a few times about don’t knows as I think most of them will either not vote or vote Tory and affect the results quite a bit…
I saw one poll where the DKs were roughly half the size of those voting Tory 🤷🏼‍♂️
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It depends on the methodology used. Some pollsters use the previous election vote but weight it down by 50%. Some remove them altogether. Those that remove them altogether first ask who they are more likely to vote for to try and remove the don't knows.

If the last ballot cast is used for don't knows the poll favours the tories, marginally.

Almost all posters ignore ukip, which again favours the tories.

There is lots of information on polling mechanisms and how they are likely to effect the conclusions reached.
 
Rofesleg said:
Pardon my ignorance, and it may have been explained earlier in the thread. Are those figures based on the number of votes? Do they normally translate into a similar breakdown of seats?
Also I see it excludes 'do not knows', do we know how significant that figure is?
Thanks.
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Deltapoll exclude don't knows, which is why their polls have such wild swings. It basically increases their margin of error significantly.

Most other pollsters weigh don't knows, with Opinium being the most extreme example to Deltapoll, as they base them on their previous voting preferences (including Brexit) and likelihood to vote. Which leans heavily towards the Tories.
 
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