'So if you were to sum up 47 years of Hartlepool electoral history:
1974-1992 - Labour held off Tories in often relatively close elections
1997-2005 - Blair destroys the Tory vote in the constituency
2010-2019 - Labour holds the seat as right wing vote split
Another view: Hartlepool got within 1 500 swing votes of a Tory MP in 1983 when Labour had its most leftwing leader in it’s then history and Margret Thatcher was standing on the back of a “patriotic Falklands victory campaign”. While the Conservatives’ lowest point came in 2004 & 2005 directly following the high point of Britain’s involvement in Iraq war. I offer no judgment here on the war. Merely to say that these are the electoral facts.
So to the final point: 2021 The right/far-right vote is now coalesced into one party - the Conservatives ..while the non-right vote is split between 4-5 parties expected to get somewhere between 45-55%. In other words: the exact opposite of the last 4 elections.'