Would you have taken 3 points off 5th with 9 games left….

Stoke went up 2nd with 78 points in 2008.
Blackpool finished 6th and won the play offs with just 70 points in 2010.
Leicester did only get 68 points and make the play offs in 2013, but failed.

Outliers however, are just that.

We've 53 points with 9 matches left.
We'd need 17 points from those 9 matches to match the lowest total ever to make the play offs and win them.
Of course its possible, but 5 wins and 2 draws looks highly unlikely - and even then we'd be relying on clubs above to do worse than us in the last 9.

On paper, Oxford, Plymouth and Norwich at our place are very winnable, but how many times have we said that?
 
indeedido said:
Stoke went up 2nd with 78 points in 2008.
Blackpool finished 6th and won the play offs with just 70 points in 2010.
Leicester did only get 68 points and make the play offs in 2013, but failed.

Outliers however, are just that.

We've 53 points with 9 matches left.
We'd need 17 points from those 9 matches to match the lowest total ever to make the play offs and win them.
Of course its possible, but 5 wins and 2 draws looks highly unlikely - and even then we'd be relying on clubs above to do worse than us in the last 9.

On paper, Oxford, Plymouth and Norwich at our place are very winnable, but how many times have we said that?
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With the greatest of respect though, that’s irrelevant speculation. Talking about what might happen, what’s happened before, what needs to happen is pointless.
As Carrick said in his interview talking about what we want to do means nothing, we’ve just got to do it. We as fans have just to get behind them, dissect it when it’s done.
 
The Card Cheat said:
With the greatest of respect though, that’s irrelevant speculation. Talking about what might happen, what’s happened before, what needs to happen is pointless.
As Carrick said in his interview talking about what we want to do means nothing, we’ve just got to do it. We as fans have just to get behind them, dissect it when it’s done.
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I tend to agree it's probably irrelevant.

But history can help determine what might be needed to reach certain targets.

No one season will ever be the same. But we can use past data to estimate and envisage what might be needed.
 
It’s been a disappointming season in my eyes.

Before Christmas most of us were a bit disappointed to be out of auto contention but vast majority felt we were shoe ins for the playoffs.

Now the gauge has moved to whether we are happy to have a chance of scraping into the playoffs.

Injuries are of course a factor but not a get out or jail free card for Carrick/Scott et al. We also shouldn’t be shocked next season if injury prone players continue to get injured.
 
Marvanelli said:
I tend to agree it's probably irrelevant.

But history can help determine what might be needed to reach certain targets.

No one season will ever be the same. But we can use past data to estimate and envisage what might be needed.
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I agree with that and didn’t want to come across as saying that it doesn’t show what is most likely to happen, but I think we should avoid trying to use that data to say “we should probably give up “.
 
Bruce said:
Yes, these days, partly due to PSR, all of Gibson's financial support goes into keeping the lights on and ensuring that the wage bill can be paid. The financial firepower we have is based on making a profit in the transfer market. We have, I think, the most expensive wage bill of any club without parachute payments and also spend Premier league money on a Championship academy. That's consistent with Gibson supporting us to the "best of the rest" and for that level of financial support you would expect us to be somewhere around 4th-6th as a par result.
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That's not strictly true. The operating overheads are covered by the income the club makes. It's only over the last two seasons that Gibson has had to top it up slightly. Gibson covers all football related costs.
 
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atypical_boro said:
I mean, I do think the club WANT to get promoted though. They can't force it to happen. Gibson's previous successes were largely based on having more financial firepower than his competitors, which he doesn't have anymore (with the exception of the Karanka promotion).
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I agree with you, I think they want to. Which is why I think Carrick will leave if we don’t get promoted this season. Anything less is failure, he has been backed.

Also, if we were sat in the top 4 with a chance of the automatics still up for grabs. Do you think Latte Lath would have been sold?

Not a chance.
 
Humpty said:
That's not true. The operating overheads are covered by the income the club makes. It's only over the last two seasons that Gibson has had to top it up slightly. Gibson covers all football related costs.
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So without the 'top-up' from Gibson, is there another Fairy Godmother sprinkling pennies over the operating budget? Or is what you've said there a less dramatic way of saying what was said by @Bruce?
 
Scrug said:
I agree with you, I think they want to. Which is why I think Carrick will leave if we don’t get promoted this season. Anything less is failure, he has been backed.
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I think you're probably right he'll leave if that happens.

But we're going to finish 6th, beat Leeds and then Sunderland, and get promoted. ;-)
 
atypical_boro said:
I think you're probably right he'll leave if that happens.

But we're going to finish 6th, beat Leeds and then Sunderland, and get promoted. ;-)
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Mate, if that happens. I will purchase the old Binns building, get it back up and running and show my **** in the window.

I would be over the F***ing moon.
 
Leeds fixtures read:

QPR (A)
Swansea (H)
Luton (A)
'Boro (A)
Preston (H)
Oxford (A)
Stoke (H)
Bristol City (H)
Plymouth (A)

Even Tony f**king Pulis would manage to get Leeds over the auto's line.
 
theboydom said:
So without the 'top-up' from Gibson, is there another Fairy Godmother sprinkling pennies over the operating budget? Or is what you've said there a less dramatic way of saying what was said by @Bruce?
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Very aggressive mate chill out. The club covers its operating costs. Gibson covers football related costs.
 
Humpty said:
That's not strictly true. The operating overheads are covered by the income the club makes. It's only over the last two seasons that Gibson has had to top it up slightly. Gibson covers all football related costs.
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So I was speaking informally. The wage bill for the club is pretty much 100% of turnover.* That means virtually every penny the club receives goes on the wage bill. Everything else is paid for by Gibson (via his profits from his other companies.) All the profits from transfer sales have been ploughed back into buying new players (and loan fees). At the moment, there's a decent chunk in the transfer kitty from the ELL sale which will, I predict, be spent next summer.

Easiest way to think about this is that the club's income pays the wages, transfer income pays for new players and all the rest is paid for by Gibson.

*Important to remember that income is not profit. For example, the club receives £55 when selling a shirt. It deducts just under £10 for VAT so it's income is £45.83. Out of that it pays it's cost to buy the shirt from the supplier, transport costs, warehousing, percentage for wastage and returns and so on. However, all that £46 income goes on wages and all the rest is paid for by Gibson.
 
Bruce said:
For example, the club receives £55 when selling a shirt. It deducts just under £10 for VAT so it's income is £45.83. Out of that it pays it's cost to buy the shirt from the supplier, transport costs, warehousing, percentage for wastage and returns and so on. However, all that £46 income goes on wages and all the rest is paid for by Gibson.
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So given how many shirts we've sold from the club shop our income on shirts is £243 this season. Good to know.
 
I would have taken a top 6 position at the start of the season - I think we were around 7/5 for a top 6 spot which is about a 42% chance. Bookies expected us to finish about 5th.
 
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