Time for a second lockdown?

SmallTown said:
It's not absolutely Bomnkers to want to stop people needlessly dying to be fair.

Whats your solution?
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Why do you ignore all of the content in my post.. if you want to have a discussion with me I'm open to it ST despite you thinking otherwise I would happily share a drink with you and talk.

In response to your question, devise a plan with all those 'experts' to shield the elderly this winter. The reality is hospital admissions are not rising, deaths are not rising, the percentage of positive tests to number of tests taken is not rising (see my link).

Meanwhile we're absolutely doing criminal damage to the poorest in society by essentially taking away their avenues of employment.

Do not lockdown a second time.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Why do you ignore all of the content in my post.. if you want to have a discussion with me I'm open to it ST despite you thinking otherwise I would happily share a drink with you and talk.

In response to your question, devise a plan with all those 'experts' to shield the elderly this winter. The reality is hospital admissions are not rising, deaths are not rising, the percentage of positive tests to number of tests taken is not rising (see my link).

Meanwhile we're absolutely doing criminal damage to the poorest in society by essentially taking away their avenues of employment.

Do not lockdown a second time.
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I didn’t ignore your content. I asked you what the alternative was?
If I read it correctly it’s do nothing until the winter?
Is this correct?
 
Yeah CtC when do we attack!

We desperately need worthwhile track and trace systems in place before the autumn. The balancing act between peoples freedoms and living their lives as best they can versus a lockdown that will ultimately save folks from covid, but put them at risk from other factors is probably very difficult. However, keeping the economy up and running requires track and trace.

The issue here is that good leaders bring their people willingly with them, they unite a nation. The man we have in charge is in no way, shape or form a leader.

Again, track and trace is absolutely essential to keeping the economy open so we can impose local lockdowns and contain the mortality rate to where it is now, i.e. around the average.

It is pointless bleating about what has happened in the past and let's hope we are gearing up and prepared for the autumn, but I don't have much faith in a government that has gone on their holidays instead of working through this preparation.
 
GazC_MFC said:
A person on this board has been unable to get access to cancer treatment and it has grown during the that time, which they believe this will shorten their lifespan.
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First post on here after lurking for a while.
Is that true?
That's terribly sad. I hope they get back on the road to recovery sooner rather than later.
 
SmallTown said:
I didn’t ignore your content. I asked you what the alternative was?
If I read it correctly it’s do nothing until the winter?
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I answered in my post, shield those vulnerable.

Who's deaths are more important Covid or suicides/cancer patients/heart disease sufferers/dying from poverty?

The evidence shows that lockdown has killed more people than Covid, has also destroyed the economy and killed more 'future' deaths.

My question to you is, why lockdown the nation?
 
Alvez_48 said:
I answered in my post, shield those vulnerable.

Who's deaths are more important Covid or suicides/cancer patients/heart disease sufferers/dying from poverty?

The evidence shows that lockdown has killed more people than Covid, has also destroyed the economy and killed more 'future' deaths.

My question to you is, why lockdown the nation?
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Show the evidence where there has been more than 45k deaths from lockdown measures
 
Denzel said:
First post on here after lurking for a while.
Is that true?
That's terribly sad. I hope they get back on the road to recovery sooner rather than later.
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A work colleague's father has had his cancer treatment postponed for months and it has progressed sadly. This is likley a very widespread situation sadly and the fallout in increased deaths is going to be horrible sadly. Especially for cases of cancer which we have become good at treating if treatment is started early.
 
GazC_MFC said:
Show the evidence where there has been more than 45k deaths from lockdown measures
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From the study, I quote:-

'
There were warnings from doctors at the beginning of lockdown in March that there was a sharp drop in hospital attendance for emergencies such as heart attacks.

It was reported that at one point the number of people going to A&E had halved, while cancer referrals had plunged by 70 per cent.

Other studies have already suggested that a lack of access to urgent cancer care and a drop in referrals could lead to an extra 35,000 deaths a year.

An earlier paper published in The Lancet Oncology found some lives will be 20 years shorter due to cancers that have been missed.

This new study has raised the possibility that the wider impact of lockdown killed more people than the virus.

The finding comes from an analysis of Office of National Statistics figures by experts at the Universities of Sheffield and Loughborough, working with consultancy firm Economic Insight.

They estimate that there were 21,544 extra deaths, an average of 2,693 a week, during the first eight weeks of restrictions. '
 
Not sure the nation's collective mental health could survive another lockdown. Especially when you know damn well that many will simply carry on doing their thing.
 
Alvez_48 said:
I answered in my post, shield those vulnerable.

Who's deaths are more important Covid or suicides/cancer patients/heart disease sufferers/dying from poverty?

The evidence shows that lockdown has killed more people than Covid, has also destroyed the economy and killed more 'future' deaths.

My question to you is, why lockdown the nation?
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"shield those vulnerable in the winter"

So you ARE saying do nothing then. Interesting.
 
T_A_D said:
A work colleague's father has had his cancer treatment postponed for months and it has progressed sadly. This is likley a very widespread situation sadly and the fallout in increased deaths is going to be horrible sadly. Especially for cases of cancer which we have become good at treating if treatment is started early.
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Im just glad that my wife's cancer treatment finished in December. Id be beside myself with worry if it was still ongoing.
 
While I have disagreed with Alvez a lot during the early months of this I agree with much of what he is saying now.

Some people seem obsessed with the number of cases - pointless. It needs to be put into context with other metrics - hospitalisations, calls to NHS 111 etc.

We are testing more and testing in a targeted way. If we are tested close contacts of positive cases then we will find more positive cases. We need to be asking questions such as:
What percentage of those cases are asymptomatic? What percentage of those cases require hospital treatment etc.

The key to the way forward is how many people / what proportion of the population is still susceptible. We do not have a clear picture of this but if a lot more people have had the virus that we know about and/or if the susceptible proportion of the population is much lower than first assumed then the way forward is VERY different to the way forward if the susceptible proportion of the population is high. However, no one (that includes the scientists heavily involved in this) simply do not know.

We should be seeking to test those positive cases for antibodies at the appropriate time points and for T-cell response. We should also be testing close contacts who test negative for T-cell response to build up a better picture of what's going on. It's likely some of this is already being studied.

While I have also disagreed with some of Carl Heneghan's analysis during this he makes a very good point about false positives. The percentage of positive tests at the moment is very low yet we do not know what the false positive rate is for these tests (as far as I'm aware).

Despite an, admittedly slow, "opening up" the data does not show any cause for alarm (at the moment) and calls for a "lockdown" are completely without foundation in my view. How long do you want to lockdown for? What would be your metric for releasing "lockdown"?
 
I’m not buying that - what did they do - sit at home quietly in case they caught Covid....whilst having a heart attack!

“There were warnings from doctors at the beginning of lockdown in March that there was a sharp drop in hospital attendance for emergencies such as heart attacks. “
 
Personally I've been working right through the whole situation and call me selfish but if there was another lockdown like we had in March I don't think I'd mentally cope. In fact on certain days I'm struggling now. I wait for the daily figures every day and it's starting to affect my moods as I look for a light at the end of the tunnel.

I'm sure that there are 1000's like me for differing reasons but ultimately due to the severity of the lockdown.
 
I said on another thread lock the 16 to 50 and let the vunerable show them how to do it properly. Cos we have too or die
 
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