Another lockdown in full won't happen.
We're in a completely different place with the virus now than we were 6 months ago. By the time we actually went into lockdown, it was going wild across the country and had been for some time (I read about a whole choir that fell down ill with it in Jan after a member returned from Wuhan in Dec). The BBC were quoting the other day that there were 100k cases a day at the peak in the UK. There's a very good chance a fair few on this board (older members included) that have had it and not even realised. I've had 3/4 bouts of mild illness in the first half of this year I could possibly say, were it. The ONS and the Covid App are both saying cases nationwide are actually decreasing still or are stable, despite the uptick in cases and with increased testing, the positive % rate hasn't varied too much.
- Looking at other factors (although there's been a continued increase in official cases for around a month now), hospitalizations, deaths and triage enquiries have continued to fall.
- Re Deaths - since they have removed post 28 day rule, it's really brought the recent death figure down to virtually nothing.
- We've learned more about how to treat it (i.e not just respiratory) and found useful drugs like dexamethasone.
- Deaths in ICU have fallen from around 60% in March to low to mid 20's based off an article I read earlier this week.
That's not to say we should all go around hugging each other and filling bars, but I don't think it's anywhere near hitting March/April figures again and if we do get a second wave in winter, we will be a lot more prepared than we were first time round.
The way I try to look at it is if I catch it today, I'm better off than if I caught it yesterday.