Time for a second lockdown?

Jim why is the risk you want to take better than St's risk, seriously?

I would assume you can give us all some accurate numbers covid v non-covid deaths and how that would model in the event of another spike in the R value?

ST has a point of view, your's is different, why the animosity to each other, particularly given neither of you know where this is heading.
 
Another lockdown in full won't happen.

We're in a completely different place with the virus now than we were 6 months ago. By the time we actually went into lockdown, it was going wild across the country and had been for some time (I read about a whole choir that fell down ill with it in Jan after a member returned from Wuhan in Dec). The BBC were quoting the other day that there were 100k cases a day at the peak in the UK. There's a very good chance a fair few on this board (older members included) that have had it and not even realised. I've had 3/4 bouts of mild illness in the first half of this year I could possibly say, were it. The ONS and the Covid App are both saying cases nationwide are actually decreasing still or are stable, despite the uptick in cases and with increased testing, the positive % rate hasn't varied too much.

- Looking at other factors (although there's been a continued increase in official cases for around a month now), hospitalizations, deaths and triage enquiries have continued to fall.
- Re Deaths - since they have removed post 28 day rule, it's really brought the recent death figure down to virtually nothing.
- We've learned more about how to treat it (i.e not just respiratory) and found useful drugs like dexamethasone.
- Deaths in ICU have fallen from around 60% in March to low to mid 20's based off an article I read earlier this week.

That's not to say we should all go around hugging each other and filling bars, but I don't think it's anywhere near hitting March/April figures again and if we do get a second wave in winter, we will be a lot more prepared than we were first time round.

The way I try to look at it is if I catch it today, I'm better off than if I caught it yesterday.
 
Jim why is the risk you want to take better than St's risk, seriously?

I would assume you can give us all some accurate numbers covid v non-covid deaths and how that would model in the event of another spike in the R value?

ST has a point of view, your's is different, why the animosity to each other, particularly given neither of you know where this is heading.
What animosity? I have no animosity towards him whatsoever I simply don’t agree with him.
 
Jim why is the risk you want to take better than St's risk, seriously?

I would assume you can give us all some accurate numbers covid v non-covid deaths and how that would model in the event of another spike in the R value?

ST has a point of view, your's is different, why the animosity to each other, particularly given neither of you know where this is heading.

Laughing you know there's plenty more evidence on the don't lockdown side vs 'cases have gone up, don't do any analysis of anything else and the circumstances surrounding this 'increase''.
Come over and join us, you know you want to. 😉

Again I reiterate 1377 cases in Leicester caused them to lockdown this led to 7 hospitalisations. A hospitalisation rate of 0.51% and please note that Leicesters local lockdown happened after the spike was already coming back down as was documented heavily at the time.
 
Jim why is the risk you want to take better than St's risk, seriously?

I would assume you can give us all some accurate numbers covid v non-covid deaths and how that would model in the event of another spike in the R value?

ST has a point of view, your's is different, why the animosity to each other, particularly given neither of you know where this is heading.
No animosity on my part. I completely understand the drawbacks of lock down. I was just pointing out that we don’t know the scale of the second spike or how deadly it is. I realise either way is a a risk but I guess my concern is that the risks you outline can be mitigated against one various ways: increased counselling for those vulnerable during lockdown, the furlough schemes etc for businesses that we have already seen, segregation of hospitals so other deadly illnesses can be treat.

it’s more difficult to mitigate against the risk coronavirus poses because we don’t know what that risk is
 
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