What I got was a fairly detailed breakdown of what is going to happen in the coming weeks when the Ukrainian offensive really kicks into gear. Unfortunately, I can't post it, for obvious reasons. It was in 8 stages. Stage one is already underway.
This much I can post though, as it's more general about the state of affairs in Russian mostly. It was received before the drone collision.
"Forces
Myscovy has between 400 and 500K in the form of ill-equiped and ill-supplied troops that are worn out, wounded and demoralised. They are low on both equipment and ammunition along the entire frontline.
Muscovy generals and leadership squandered what little they had in their senseless attacks on Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
Ukraine has 1.2 million men and women under arms now, they have received a lot of equipment and ammunition. More than has been said in the news and officially.
They are well fed, motivated, well equiped, and ready to go.
Normally you need 5:1 as an attacking force, but this is only true between units that are on par in regards of equipment, ammunition, logistics, motivation and that are equally rested.
This is obviously not the case here. The Russians are in really bad condition.
Also, the leadership quality difference is so great that it is like a rabbit picking a fight with Mohammed Ali at the Rumble in the Jungle.
Russian Side
Wagner is fecked and complaining to high heavens, there are even signs that Prigozhin is pulling them out and redeploying them to Africa where Wagner has large possecions and own mines etcetera. How true this is can be argued, we will see.
Russian army lost a lot of their best units near Bakhmut and Vuhledar, and no new reinforcements are coming.
Along the entire front the Russians stores are completely depleated.
We have even seen a company of Russian soldiers attacking Ukrainian lines with sticks shaped like Kalashnikovs...
Finally the Russian missiles are showing signs of running out, now Russia is mainly using old S-300s as ground attack missiles together with hyper-expensive Kinzhal's, indicating that almost everything in between is gone.
Muscovy
There are now clear signs of Russian infighting and strain is reaching new heights in Moscow.
Everyone in the Russian elite is in full crisis mode, either trying to flee, or going full on hedonistic.
Basically nobody is stearing the ship.
At the same time it is interesting to see who are talking, and who they are beefing with.
Kadyrov is sick, but not in any deadly way. He is mostly hellbent on keeping Chechnya and making it into his personal Kingdom. There are rumours that he is trying to secure nuclear weapons to ensure his dream of a personal Kingdom.
Several regions seem to be governing themselves in ever greater amounts, and they are getting no support from Moscow.
Strelkov is openly now beefing with Prigozhin, the Siloviki are flocking behind the banner of Muscovy (literally, Strelkov is sitting infront of the old Imperial Muscovian flag).
It is therefore interesting that Zelenskyy is openly discussing renaming Russia into Muscovy.
There are also a lot of former and current Western Governors flocking to the banner of Strelkov.
Perhaps not the solution anyone wants...
Anyway, Prigozhin is falling short here too.
Army vs Wagner, this one is already a lost cause. The army is so far getting support in Moscow.
Strelkov is though not a friend of the current army leadership.
What I find interesting is the extreme lack of leadership from Muscovy.
Regardless of Putin being dead, comatose, sickly or in power at all, the lack of leadership from his direction is telling, and we still believe him to be dead.
The others seem to be squabling, and or completely clueless on how to get out of the mess that Putin left them with.
These are men that are extremely lacking in experience of command, that is clear. Everyone seems to wait for someone else to decide what to do, and are all unwilling of speaking.
Kadyrov does not seem to want the throne (thankfully), the Governors seems to be happy with carving out their own autonomous, or liberated, fiefdoms.
Prigozhin is toast and seems to dream about becoming an African tinpot dictator.
This leaves 3, and only 3, that can take the power.
Navalny would be the worst candidate, he is a neo-nazi maniac that is even more hellbent on recreating the Soviet Empire.
Khodorkovsky and his coallision of useful idiots. Western oriented, but not necessarily a nice bunch at all. But, possible to deal with.
Strelkov. He claims to not seek power, but he is doing a remarkable job of pulling people in behind his banner and the party he founded in 2016 (The Russian National Movement).
He is politically arch-conservative, but otherwise very little is known. But, philosphically he is a Great Russia fanboy. He is weirdly neutral towards NATO and seems to not see NATO as a natural enemy.
What is known is that he is in favour of citizens liberties and rights, and a fan of free internet.
My gut tells me it will be Strelkov coming out on top since he has the backing of Bortnikov (FSB), Naryshkin GRU and Patrushev (Security Council). All 3 of them are ideologically aligned with him, and all of them have had him in their chain of command. He is also a personal friend of Bortnikov and Naryshkin.
Next thing is the complete lack of putting Russia on war-economy and the lack of new mobilisations.
Strelkov want to stop the war and rebuild the army as a means of keeping the country together.
Khodorkovsky want to keep the country together in some vague form.
Navalny wants to throw the country into a massive rebuild of the army to be able to attack the other old Soviet republics like Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and leave Moldova, Ukraine and the Baltic to the end. Basically a nastier and smarter Putin. Please someone shoot him.
Back to the offensive
This is the first of 3 planned Offensives during 2023.
All 3 have distinct goals.
The first is to take the access points to Crimea and to cut the Russian Landbridge.
The Second is liberating Luhansk and take the landbridges to Crimea.
The Third is Donetsk and taking Crimea.
As things look right now these are highly set goals, but achievable.
If Russia continues like now it is likely that the army will break completely at either of these three offensives."
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