Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
Ah, well if that’s what the Russians say it must be true
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
I didn’t say it was true, I said that is what they have stated.Ah, well if that’s what the Russians say it must be true
There is quite a difference.
Scrote
Well-known member
Bear in mind that the US/UK have been embroiled in one conflict or another almost permanently since WWII.
The fact we've pulled out of Afghanistan recently means there's a lot of 'War Machine' money burning a hole in someone's pocket.
Russia are definitely the bad guy in all this but don't for a second think that the collective military industrial West are anything but overjoyed to be testing out new equipment in a bona fide war zone.
If nothing else it makes Putin's decision and timing seem even more ludicrous.
The Ruthsayer
Well-known member
And using a proxy army too.
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
And in real terms the cost is insignificant to the protagonists, not least because a lot of the stuff ‘donated’ so far that goes bang was near its sell by date and we would have had to blow it up ourselves anyway.
Later than advertised. Not much to report. Forces refusing to attack Vuhledar (wisely). Bakhmut precarious, but holding.
"The preparations of the upcoming spring offensive in Ukraine is now getting to a size that even the Ukrainian Opsec is not enough.
This has caused partner countries to in quite an offensive way take down content published in forums like Twitter.
Having videos of Bradley's and other equipment training or moving near the front is just to big a hinderance.
This is why you are all of a sudden seeing less video material, and less pictures.
I will just state that it is close now, and that it is just the weather that they are waiting for before the 200K strong armoured sledgehammer hits the anvil.
Russia is aware of things obviously, this has led them to start moving their command and civilians out from the villages near the two land-bridges between Ukraine and Crimea.
Russia is now entirely spent as an advancing force, and the last place they are still trying is in Bakhmut.
Bakhmut has soon served it's purpose to lock down massive Russian resources.
Bakhmut "falling" will be the signal that the Offensive is about to start.
In reality the Russian army is looking more and more like a hollowed out husk behind the frontlines in regards of manpower and spare equipment.
Their logistics is even worse, with them trying to adapt beyond the 150km GLSDB range.
This means that there is a rather large chance that the entire Russian army may collapse as the spring offensive is launched, there is just nothing to hold behind the lines, with the exception of the direction towards Crimea and the landbridge between Russia via Mariupol towards Crimea.
Do the Russians have enough to hold back the Ukrainians?
I seriously doubt this.
China
It never ceases to amase me how China is saying one thing, the US saying one thing, and China doing something completely different than both of it...
China saying - We are eternal friends and supporters of Russia, US bad.
US saying - China is supplying Russia with weapons, China bad.
China does - Sends weapons to Ukraine. There is ample amounts of pictures and videos of Chinese weapons and ammunition being used in Ukraine by the Ukrainian army, and no evidence of Russia using it...
My take is that China got very cold feet after loosing a war against India.
I am quite surprised nobody noticed that China lost a brief war.
India is no pushover by a long stretch of the imagination, but compared to what NATO at full swing could do in regards of Taiwan?
There is a world of difference.
Taiwan is a suicide mission due to something as simple as submarines and missile defence systems.
There are enough of both ready at any given point in time to take out half the entire Chinese navy, and since we would know months in advance what China planned there would be orders of magnitude more equipment around in the form of entire navies that nothing would reach Taiwan.
Pundits and "experts" seems to always forget what a good moat can do.
Only the US navy is set up to do anything across a fair sized "moat".
Nor, does Pundits seem inclined to check where the US navy has their forward based carrier fleets.
Turkey
The 700 bedroom pray 7 times a day nutcracker may not be with us any longer.
Helping to organise the opposition was an interesting chore, but finally they saw the music and fell into line as a unified voice.
This means that Erdögan has rather limited options that all will be bad for him if he even bothers with any democratic pretext.
-Faking the vote.
-Throwing everyone in jail.
-Cancel the election.
-Military coup.
Either alternative would probably be the end of him and Turkey's part in NATO.
There is a single thing that can get you chucked out and that is not being a democracy.
Yes, it will take a vote, and so far nobody has done that. It was though close with the Greeks once.
But, in the case of Turkey that vote would be held.
The remaining option would be to go through with the election, and that one he will probably lose.
Erdögan is now highly unpopular due to the ridiculously bad economy, and the oppression.
Also, his NATO bungling has eroded his support in the military and among the "hawks" in Turkey.
Anyway, the chips has been laid down now.
Something similar, but different, is also in the making for Órbanus of Hungary.
Rambling
I am now rambling, for now there is nothing much else to write about.
The Russian army is stalled out, weather, Ukraine getting ready.
Now we have entered the boring long wait while everyone checks their gear, try to sleep as much as possible, and redo it... again, and again, and again..."
"The preparations of the upcoming spring offensive in Ukraine is now getting to a size that even the Ukrainian Opsec is not enough.
This has caused partner countries to in quite an offensive way take down content published in forums like Twitter.
Having videos of Bradley's and other equipment training or moving near the front is just to big a hinderance.
This is why you are all of a sudden seeing less video material, and less pictures.
I will just state that it is close now, and that it is just the weather that they are waiting for before the 200K strong armoured sledgehammer hits the anvil.
Russia is aware of things obviously, this has led them to start moving their command and civilians out from the villages near the two land-bridges between Ukraine and Crimea.
Russia is now entirely spent as an advancing force, and the last place they are still trying is in Bakhmut.
Bakhmut has soon served it's purpose to lock down massive Russian resources.
Bakhmut "falling" will be the signal that the Offensive is about to start.
In reality the Russian army is looking more and more like a hollowed out husk behind the frontlines in regards of manpower and spare equipment.
Their logistics is even worse, with them trying to adapt beyond the 150km GLSDB range.
This means that there is a rather large chance that the entire Russian army may collapse as the spring offensive is launched, there is just nothing to hold behind the lines, with the exception of the direction towards Crimea and the landbridge between Russia via Mariupol towards Crimea.
Do the Russians have enough to hold back the Ukrainians?
I seriously doubt this.
China
It never ceases to amase me how China is saying one thing, the US saying one thing, and China doing something completely different than both of it...
China saying - We are eternal friends and supporters of Russia, US bad.
US saying - China is supplying Russia with weapons, China bad.
China does - Sends weapons to Ukraine. There is ample amounts of pictures and videos of Chinese weapons and ammunition being used in Ukraine by the Ukrainian army, and no evidence of Russia using it...
My take is that China got very cold feet after loosing a war against India.
I am quite surprised nobody noticed that China lost a brief war.
India is no pushover by a long stretch of the imagination, but compared to what NATO at full swing could do in regards of Taiwan?
There is a world of difference.
Taiwan is a suicide mission due to something as simple as submarines and missile defence systems.
There are enough of both ready at any given point in time to take out half the entire Chinese navy, and since we would know months in advance what China planned there would be orders of magnitude more equipment around in the form of entire navies that nothing would reach Taiwan.
Pundits and "experts" seems to always forget what a good moat can do.
Only the US navy is set up to do anything across a fair sized "moat".
Nor, does Pundits seem inclined to check where the US navy has their forward based carrier fleets.
Turkey
The 700 bedroom pray 7 times a day nutcracker may not be with us any longer.
Helping to organise the opposition was an interesting chore, but finally they saw the music and fell into line as a unified voice.
This means that Erdögan has rather limited options that all will be bad for him if he even bothers with any democratic pretext.
-Faking the vote.
-Throwing everyone in jail.
-Cancel the election.
-Military coup.
Either alternative would probably be the end of him and Turkey's part in NATO.
There is a single thing that can get you chucked out and that is not being a democracy.
Yes, it will take a vote, and so far nobody has done that. It was though close with the Greeks once.
But, in the case of Turkey that vote would be held.
The remaining option would be to go through with the election, and that one he will probably lose.
Erdögan is now highly unpopular due to the ridiculously bad economy, and the oppression.
Also, his NATO bungling has eroded his support in the military and among the "hawks" in Turkey.
Anyway, the chips has been laid down now.
Something similar, but different, is also in the making for Órbanus of Hungary.
Rambling
I am now rambling, for now there is nothing much else to write about.
The Russian army is stalled out, weather, Ukraine getting ready.
Now we have entered the boring long wait while everyone checks their gear, try to sleep as much as possible, and redo it... again, and again, and again..."
Last edited:
Fattyfoggon
Well-known member
this strange one from the guardian live feed sounds very un Russian to be so candid
"The Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has reportedly said there is infighting in the Kremlin’s inner circle, and that the Kremlin has in effect ceded control over the country’s information space.
Speaking at a forum on Saturday on the “practical and technological aspects of information and cognitive warfare in modern realities” in Moscow, Zakharova mentioned that despite fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites”, the Kremlin could not replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment."
www.theguardian.com
"The Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has reportedly said there is infighting in the Kremlin’s inner circle, and that the Kremlin has in effect ceded control over the country’s information space.
Speaking at a forum on Saturday on the “practical and technological aspects of information and cognitive warfare in modern realities” in Moscow, Zakharova mentioned that despite fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites”, the Kremlin could not replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment."
Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukraine ‘buying time’ in Bakhmut ahead of counteroffensive
Both sides claim hundreds of enemy troops killed in past 24 hours. Follow all the latest developments
www.theguardian.com
Lefty
Well-known member
Lefty
Well-known member
Ah. Correction appreciated.
It’s all ok, Lefty. They’ve left the keys in the ignitions, and doesn’t seem to be anyone about. Will be in Ukraine before the end of the week
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Russia have taken down a US surveillance drone in international waters over the Black Sea. By using reckless tactics dropping fuel on the drone and then damaging a propeller.
Hap
Well-known member
The U.S. Will play this down.
Well after a "honeymoon period" I have a big update in my inbox, but there's too much OPSEC sensitive material in it to post in full. Will put up an abreviated versio tomorrow.
What I got was a fairly detailed breakdown of what is going to happen in the coming weeks when the Ukrainian offensive really kicks into gear. Unfortunately, I can't post it, for obvious reasons. It was in 8 stages. Stage one is already underway.
This much I can post though, as it's more general about the state of affairs in Russian mostly. It was received before the drone collision.
"Forces
Myscovy has between 400 and 500K in the form of ill-equiped and ill-supplied troops that are worn out, wounded and demoralised. They are low on both equipment and ammunition along the entire frontline.
Muscovy generals and leadership squandered what little they had in their senseless attacks on Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
Ukraine has 1.2 million men and women under arms now, they have received a lot of equipment and ammunition. More than has been said in the news and officially.
They are well fed, motivated, well equiped, and ready to go.
Normally you need 5:1 as an attacking force, but this is only true between units that are on par in regards of equipment, ammunition, logistics, motivation and that are equally rested.
This is obviously not the case here. The Russians are in really bad condition.
Also, the leadership quality difference is so great that it is like a rabbit picking a fight with Mohammed Ali at the Rumble in the Jungle.
Russian Side
Wagner is fecked and complaining to high heavens, there are even signs that Prigozhin is pulling them out and redeploying them to Africa where Wagner has large possecions and own mines etcetera. How true this is can be argued, we will see.
Russian army lost a lot of their best units near Bakhmut and Vuhledar, and no new reinforcements are coming.
Along the entire front the Russians stores are completely depleated.
We have even seen a company of Russian soldiers attacking Ukrainian lines with sticks shaped like Kalashnikovs...
Finally the Russian missiles are showing signs of running out, now Russia is mainly using old S-300s as ground attack missiles together with hyper-expensive Kinzhal's, indicating that almost everything in between is gone.
Muscovy
There are now clear signs of Russian infighting and strain is reaching new heights in Moscow.
Everyone in the Russian elite is in full crisis mode, either trying to flee, or going full on hedonistic.
Basically nobody is stearing the ship.
At the same time it is interesting to see who are talking, and who they are beefing with.
Kadyrov is sick, but not in any deadly way. He is mostly hellbent on keeping Chechnya and making it into his personal Kingdom. There are rumours that he is trying to secure nuclear weapons to ensure his dream of a personal Kingdom.
Several regions seem to be governing themselves in ever greater amounts, and they are getting no support from Moscow.
Strelkov is openly now beefing with Prigozhin, the Siloviki are flocking behind the banner of Muscovy (literally, Strelkov is sitting infront of the old Imperial Muscovian flag).
It is therefore interesting that Zelenskyy is openly discussing renaming Russia into Muscovy.
There are also a lot of former and current Western Governors flocking to the banner of Strelkov.
Perhaps not the solution anyone wants...
Anyway, Prigozhin is falling short here too.
Army vs Wagner, this one is already a lost cause. The army is so far getting support in Moscow.
Strelkov is though not a friend of the current army leadership.
What I find interesting is the extreme lack of leadership from Muscovy.
Regardless of Putin being dead, comatose, sickly or in power at all, the lack of leadership from his direction is telling, and we still believe him to be dead.
The others seem to be squabling, and or completely clueless on how to get out of the mess that Putin left them with.
These are men that are extremely lacking in experience of command, that is clear. Everyone seems to wait for someone else to decide what to do, and are all unwilling of speaking.
Kadyrov does not seem to want the throne (thankfully), the Governors seems to be happy with carving out their own autonomous, or liberated, fiefdoms.
Prigozhin is toast and seems to dream about becoming an African tinpot dictator.
This leaves 3, and only 3, that can take the power.
Navalny would be the worst candidate, he is a neo-nazi maniac that is even more hellbent on recreating the Soviet Empire.
Khodorkovsky and his coallision of useful idiots. Western oriented, but not necessarily a nice bunch at all. But, possible to deal with.
Strelkov. He claims to not seek power, but he is doing a remarkable job of pulling people in behind his banner and the party he founded in 2016 (The Russian National Movement).
He is politically arch-conservative, but otherwise very little is known. But, philosphically he is a Great Russia fanboy. He is weirdly neutral towards NATO and seems to not see NATO as a natural enemy.
What is known is that he is in favour of citizens liberties and rights, and a fan of free internet.
My gut tells me it will be Strelkov coming out on top since he has the backing of Bortnikov (FSB), Naryshkin GRU and Patrushev (Security Council). All 3 of them are ideologically aligned with him, and all of them have had him in their chain of command. He is also a personal friend of Bortnikov and Naryshkin.
Next thing is the complete lack of putting Russia on war-economy and the lack of new mobilisations.
Strelkov want to stop the war and rebuild the army as a means of keeping the country together.
Khodorkovsky want to keep the country together in some vague form.
Navalny wants to throw the country into a massive rebuild of the army to be able to attack the other old Soviet republics like Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and leave Moldova, Ukraine and the Baltic to the end. Basically a nastier and smarter Putin. Please someone shoot him.
Back to the offensive
This is the first of 3 planned Offensives during 2023.
All 3 have distinct goals.
The first is to take the access points to Crimea and to cut the Russian Landbridge.
The Second is liberating Luhansk and take the landbridges to Crimea.
The Third is Donetsk and taking Crimea.
As things look right now these are highly set goals, but achievable.
If Russia continues like now it is likely that the army will break completely at either of these three offensives."
.
This much I can post though, as it's more general about the state of affairs in Russian mostly. It was received before the drone collision.
"Forces
Myscovy has between 400 and 500K in the form of ill-equiped and ill-supplied troops that are worn out, wounded and demoralised. They are low on both equipment and ammunition along the entire frontline.
Muscovy generals and leadership squandered what little they had in their senseless attacks on Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
Ukraine has 1.2 million men and women under arms now, they have received a lot of equipment and ammunition. More than has been said in the news and officially.
They are well fed, motivated, well equiped, and ready to go.
Normally you need 5:1 as an attacking force, but this is only true between units that are on par in regards of equipment, ammunition, logistics, motivation and that are equally rested.
This is obviously not the case here. The Russians are in really bad condition.
Also, the leadership quality difference is so great that it is like a rabbit picking a fight with Mohammed Ali at the Rumble in the Jungle.
Russian Side
Wagner is fecked and complaining to high heavens, there are even signs that Prigozhin is pulling them out and redeploying them to Africa where Wagner has large possecions and own mines etcetera. How true this is can be argued, we will see.
Russian army lost a lot of their best units near Bakhmut and Vuhledar, and no new reinforcements are coming.
Along the entire front the Russians stores are completely depleated.
We have even seen a company of Russian soldiers attacking Ukrainian lines with sticks shaped like Kalashnikovs...
Finally the Russian missiles are showing signs of running out, now Russia is mainly using old S-300s as ground attack missiles together with hyper-expensive Kinzhal's, indicating that almost everything in between is gone.
Muscovy
There are now clear signs of Russian infighting and strain is reaching new heights in Moscow.
Everyone in the Russian elite is in full crisis mode, either trying to flee, or going full on hedonistic.
Basically nobody is stearing the ship.
At the same time it is interesting to see who are talking, and who they are beefing with.
Kadyrov is sick, but not in any deadly way. He is mostly hellbent on keeping Chechnya and making it into his personal Kingdom. There are rumours that he is trying to secure nuclear weapons to ensure his dream of a personal Kingdom.
Several regions seem to be governing themselves in ever greater amounts, and they are getting no support from Moscow.
Strelkov is openly now beefing with Prigozhin, the Siloviki are flocking behind the banner of Muscovy (literally, Strelkov is sitting infront of the old Imperial Muscovian flag).
It is therefore interesting that Zelenskyy is openly discussing renaming Russia into Muscovy.
There are also a lot of former and current Western Governors flocking to the banner of Strelkov.
Perhaps not the solution anyone wants...
Anyway, Prigozhin is falling short here too.
Army vs Wagner, this one is already a lost cause. The army is so far getting support in Moscow.
Strelkov is though not a friend of the current army leadership.
What I find interesting is the extreme lack of leadership from Muscovy.
Regardless of Putin being dead, comatose, sickly or in power at all, the lack of leadership from his direction is telling, and we still believe him to be dead.
The others seem to be squabling, and or completely clueless on how to get out of the mess that Putin left them with.
These are men that are extremely lacking in experience of command, that is clear. Everyone seems to wait for someone else to decide what to do, and are all unwilling of speaking.
Kadyrov does not seem to want the throne (thankfully), the Governors seems to be happy with carving out their own autonomous, or liberated, fiefdoms.
Prigozhin is toast and seems to dream about becoming an African tinpot dictator.
This leaves 3, and only 3, that can take the power.
Navalny would be the worst candidate, he is a neo-nazi maniac that is even more hellbent on recreating the Soviet Empire.
Khodorkovsky and his coallision of useful idiots. Western oriented, but not necessarily a nice bunch at all. But, possible to deal with.
Strelkov. He claims to not seek power, but he is doing a remarkable job of pulling people in behind his banner and the party he founded in 2016 (The Russian National Movement).
He is politically arch-conservative, but otherwise very little is known. But, philosphically he is a Great Russia fanboy. He is weirdly neutral towards NATO and seems to not see NATO as a natural enemy.
What is known is that he is in favour of citizens liberties and rights, and a fan of free internet.
My gut tells me it will be Strelkov coming out on top since he has the backing of Bortnikov (FSB), Naryshkin GRU and Patrushev (Security Council). All 3 of them are ideologically aligned with him, and all of them have had him in their chain of command. He is also a personal friend of Bortnikov and Naryshkin.
Next thing is the complete lack of putting Russia on war-economy and the lack of new mobilisations.
Strelkov want to stop the war and rebuild the army as a means of keeping the country together.
Khodorkovsky want to keep the country together in some vague form.
Navalny wants to throw the country into a massive rebuild of the army to be able to attack the other old Soviet republics like Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and leave Moldova, Ukraine and the Baltic to the end. Basically a nastier and smarter Putin. Please someone shoot him.
Back to the offensive
This is the first of 3 planned Offensives during 2023.
All 3 have distinct goals.
The first is to take the access points to Crimea and to cut the Russian Landbridge.
The Second is liberating Luhansk and take the landbridges to Crimea.
The Third is Donetsk and taking Crimea.
As things look right now these are highly set goals, but achievable.
If Russia continues like now it is likely that the army will break completely at either of these three offensives."
.
I don’t get the strong antipathy towards Navalny - I’m assuming it’s the same imprisoned Alexei being discussed?
He’s generally seen as a cause celebre and a victim of Putin’s anti-democratic and violent tendencies alongside Nemtsov, Politkovskaya et al. I do know the Kremlin has accused, harassed and imprisoned him on various spurious charges and have attempted to blacken his name over the years.
He’s certainly had nationalist views in the past (find a Russian politician that hasn’t) and made anti-immigration statements - he’s backtracked on some of these publicly - so he’s no liberal hero, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest he’s a neonazi and chasing after the soviet lands…
Genuinely interested to hear why as these particular accusations are not ones I’ve heard before.
He’s generally seen as a cause celebre and a victim of Putin’s anti-democratic and violent tendencies alongside Nemtsov, Politkovskaya et al. I do know the Kremlin has accused, harassed and imprisoned him on various spurious charges and have attempted to blacken his name over the years.
He’s certainly had nationalist views in the past (find a Russian politician that hasn’t) and made anti-immigration statements - he’s backtracked on some of these publicly - so he’s no liberal hero, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest he’s a neonazi and chasing after the soviet lands…
Genuinely interested to hear why as these particular accusations are not ones I’ve heard before.
Fattyfoggon
Well-known member
I agree it must be a typo or a different guy