The end?

Russian bridge is falling down
Falling down , falling down
Russian bridge is falling down
**** off putin

s***y birthday to you
s***y birthday to you
s***y birthday darth Putin
s***y birthday to you !
 
New footage showing a wave /wake under the bridge, so most likely a drone. ( funny enough our new seaborne drone got signed off as active last week)

This would explain multiple breaks in the bridge as it essentially broke its back by being underneath and lifting it up
 
When the time comes for repair work to begin.
US provided missiles are available.

“ The missile, which can hit targets more than 185 miles away, would enable Ukraine to strike key supply lines inside Russia or on the annexed Crimean peninsula” (16 Sept 2022)
 
Acklam_Lad said:
New footage showing a wave /wake under the bridge, so most likely a drone. ( funny enough our new seaborne drone got signed off as active last week)

This would explain multiple breaks in the bridge as it essentially broke its back by being underneath and lifting it up
Click to expand...

My mate's analysis

"I am a simple man who favour simple and proven solutions to a problem.
Yes, most problems in life can be solved in a huge number of ways of increasing complexity and low probability, but simplicity is normally what ends up being used by professionals in any field.

So, Kerch Bridge
I have seen a myriad versions of how it was done. Here is a list of some that at least have some basis in reality.
  1. Missile
  2. Bomb truck
  3. Bomb on Train
  4. Bomb boat
  5. Bomb Car setting of truck with explosives
  6. Special forces raid
  7. The cat did it
First, let us talk about targets. Everyone assumes there was 3 targets. The Bridges, the train, the truck. After all, we see all 3 get blown up.
Here is my point, this assumes that both the Ukrainians and the Russians are better at timing than the Swiss railroad system.
You just do not plan a strike assuming that everything will go your way like this, because it will not.
Any army, regardless of how good, have a serious problem with having both cinnamon buns and coffee arriving at the same time. Trust me on this, it is at best dry bun, or coffee, both and it is a party.
This leads to a very simple conclusion, only 1 out of 3 of these things was the target, and maximum one out of three was the carrier (if at all).
So, at least one, but perhaps two, things was blown up by happy accident.

Now, let us move through 1-7 in reverse order.

The Cat - Well, cats are natural disaster, so it would explain the perfect accidental destruction of all 3 things. Cats are masters of improbability. If you have not figured it out, the cat represents an actual accident.
Special forces raid - Having a special forces unit get near the bridge is possible, but on top of it with enough explosives, or even somewhere where it could be attached to the car, truck, or train???
Nah, not gonna happen. Trust me, I tried things like that in training, it never worked, and if it worked it left a trail of dead bodies.
And, an army just does not risk Special Forces when basic artillery missiles will work better, a Special Forces Operative takes years to train, you do not risk us like this. The cost of any missile is far lower in fact.
Bomb car/Truck explosives - Requires a car with explosives getting on the bridge, but Russians scan the cars, so low probability. And, we know there was no explosives on the truck, as we will see below.
Bomb boat - On some images it seems like there might have been a boat under the span during the explosion. We know from imagery that there is no damage to the pylons, and there would be if there had been an explosion below the span. Not a single chunck of concrete is blown off from the pylons, there is no spalling, there is no scorching. On top of that, this is not a part of the shipping channel.
Bomb on train - Russians are stupid, but even they have figured out the risks with that.
So, they visually inspect the train, and they also scan the trains, prior to them being allowed up on the bridge. But, it is possible to fool that kind of equipment and soldiers are stupid and lazy.
A chemical delayed pipe bomb inside a pipe of a fuel carriage would not be detected easily. Problem is that you would never know where it would go boom due to any delay and such of the train. Let us write this down as inaccurate but possible.
So far one out 2 of 5 is possible. Yeah!
Nah, none of the train carriages are blown up, just burned down...
Bomb truck - I understand why people believe this. We all know Russia is sending in a lot of explosives, so all that is needed is to sneak on a small bomb and Kablooey.
Problem is that Russia only uses military trucks for transports of weapons and explosives. This was decidedly civilian.
In fact, it carried consumer electronics. It has been tracked and photographed all over half of southern Russia, we know what and where it loaded.
It was inspected and scaned, we have that on video surveillance. A small bomb could have passed, but nothin on this scale.
Truck was definitely not a primary target or device. This also kills of the bomb suicide car.
And both car and truck had drivers, also known from video, so the remote control thing many yap about is just not true.
Missile - We know Ukraine has that capacity. At least 4 types are known to be in Ukraine with the plus 300km range, and the needed amount of Oumpf. These are ATACMs, RBS-15 Gungnirs, GROMs (nifty homegrown stuff that Ukraine sold to UAE a few years ago, it is basically a very modern acurate updated long range Tochka-U). Hellfires, both the Long distance land launched (150km range) and the version used from aircraft. All of these could do what is seen, and are simple to use, and Ukraine knows how to use them with expert precision.
Initially I thought Hellfire, but why risk an airplane? I was more likely confused by the fire from the train. Even pros (retired) can be confused.

So, explosive pattern.
First of all, the tanker carriages are burned, not blown up. This is sad news for the train exploding crowd.
We see from aerial images that the surface of both the bridge spans are scorched red, indicating high temperature and short duration.
From video we see an explosion that is a few meters infront and to the right of the truck cab. To the right part, is the important part.
The explosion was aerial and over the gap between the road spans. For some reason the detonation was deflected towards the outer span, probably due to resonance from the rail span being higher.
This shifted the outer road span downwards and outwards. It basically slid off the pylons out towards the water. This is evident on photographs.
So, we know whatever exploded was above the deck, and we know the damage pattern. We also know what did not explode.

So, either a cat was involved, or a missile.
I am lazy, so I would not try to train a cat.
Instead I would haul up a few good ranged missiles that I have, punch in the coordinates, launch them, and sit down eating borstj waiting for giggleworthy images from Russians.
To be certain I would obviously send more than one missile. 3 seems to be the number from the video, but it is uncertain, at least there are 3 different flashes in the mess.
Pros use the right tool for the job that is true and tested, amateurs invent their own ad hoc tools.
Pros use simple plans, amateurs use convoluted over-complicated plans.
KISS - Keep It Stupid Simple... Golden rule realy."
 
Let's hope it's bombed again very very very very soon - with hopefully a more successful permanent result of the illegal bridge being destroyed beyond ever being usable again
 
Missile attacks across all of Ukraine this morning- a number of dead and injured and the attacks are ongoing.

When will this lunacy end?
 
WeeGord said:
Missile attacks across all of Ukraine this morning- a number of dead and injured and the attacks are ongoing.

When will this lunacy end?
Click to expand...
When Putin is taken out I guess. If it's not by a hardliner of course. I just don't see how he has a face saving 'out'.

Today's response to the bridge bombing was inevitable. Which is why I choose not to glorify in such matters, however 'pleased' I may be at such embarrassments to Putin.
 
Many reports on Twitter that the building that houses the German Consulate has been hit. This could be about to get very nasty.
 
The absolute cheek of Putin to publicly accuse Ukrainians of being terrorists for bombing a bridge that was largely just being used to supply the war effort, and to then days later allow missile strikes targeting universities and cities absolutely nowhere near the front line of the war.

I'm sure the Russian media coverage won't give the full stories, but you'd think ordinary Russian citizens would still question what's being achieved by bombing a city that's absolutely nowhere near what they're being told is the objective of this "special operation".
 
They have also blown up the under sea power cable between Sweden and Borholm ... presumably as a response to Nordstream being bombed.
My mate has just been recalled to military service.
 
borolad259 said:
They have also blown up the under sea power cable between Sweden and Borholm ... presumably as a response to Nordstream being bombed.
My mate has just been recalled to military service.
Click to expand...
does not looking like this is "ending" anytime soon unfortunately it seems to be escalating to a very dangerous place for me, not sure how this ends
 
Not sure of the significance as it's low down the stories on this , but Guardian saying 'Belarus joins forces' in the headline and the text below as the story

Belarus leader, Alexander Lukashenko, said Belarus and Russia would deploy a joint military task force on the country’s western borders in response to what he called an aggravation of tension.
 
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