Ukrainian intelligence anticipated that Belarus would attack Ukraine on Russia's behalf as a response to the bridge attack.
Not sure where that leads ... if it happens.
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Ukrainian intelligence anticipated that Belarus would attack Ukraine on Russia's behalf as a response to the bridge attack.
Not sure where that leads ... if it happens.
Belarus tried in 2020 to oust their dictator . A lot of their populace hate him. If it’s not annexed by Russia before then , Belarus is a democracy in waiting . Sadly the Belarusians had no defence as Putin sent his thugs in to attack the protesters in the rigged election
If Belarus enters the war , their dictator is in trouble . Lukaschenko only manages to stay in because the army allows it . If he forces them to enter Ukraine against their wishes , then there could be an uprising
If Belarus enters the war , their dictator is in trouble . Lukaschenko only manages to stay in because the army allows it . If he forces them to enter Ukraine against their wishes , then there could be an uprising
Lefty
Well-known member
It’s worth remembering that on the Intelligence front the USA (and therefore Ukraine) have been really excellent on Russian plans, deployment, tactics and capability all year.
They may not have been able to prevent attacks, but they have anticipated them and been able to devise ideal counter measures and responses.
I think Poland might get involved if Belarus forces attack Ukraine.
Yeah the Ukrainians have been one step ahead intelligence wise.
I reckon the Wrst has the Russians coms cracked and have moles everywhere.
I also think they've been feeding the Russian spies in the Ukraine all sorts of shyte to the extent where none of them can be relied on.
Western satellites give a constant eye in the sky.
Tragic that Putins only response apart fron Nuclear is to bomb school playgrounds.
His day of reckoning will come.
Muttley
Well-known member
I think that if Belarus were going to get involved, they already would be? They seemed to be poised to join the drive to Kyiv early in the war and there were rumours of "unwillingness" on behalf of the Belorussian military, I seriously doubt that they are keen to get involved at this stage. Of course, as previously they may allow Russian forces free passage through their country. Lukashenko must know that he is on borrowed time and that his continued power is largely dependent on a strong Russia next door. Might that tip him over to more direct involvement? Does he have complete control over the military or is he tolerated by them?
consulate has been closed for months
changingman
Well-known member
Really? Not sure I see the rationale there.
Uwefuchs
Well-known member
Sounds like a slippery slope
Lefty
Well-known member
I imagine as Russia continues to struggle and lose, as it’s forces deplete and it runs into ever greater logistical problems, so it will become more desperate and put greater pressure on Belarus.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Moldova summons Russian envoy after missiles violate its airspace
Moldova said three cruise at Ukraine had violated Moldovan air space on Monday, and that it was summoning the Russian ambassador to explain.
www.reuters.com
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Russia announces Kherson evacuation, raising fears city will become frontline
Deputy PM says residents will be helped to move away from southern Ukrainian region partly occupied by invaders
www.theguardian.com
ThePrisoner
Well-known member
To further plant the seed for possible nuclear weapon use?Russia announces Kherson evacuation, raising fears city will become frontline
Deputy PM says residents will be helped to move away from southern Ukrainian region partly occupied by invaders
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Maybe. I think it's just because they know they'll be losing Kherson at some stage
Kherson is too close to crimea and Russia in my opinion . Good chance any radioactive fallout would go into Russia
East Ukraine nuclear bomb use risks fallout entering Russia . Western Ukraine nuclear use risks nato entering the conflict . Not to mention Russia seriously risks being isolated from even their allies . India in particular has a vested interest in maintaining the nuclear taboo . Given they have beef with two nuclear capable countries already in Pakistan and China
Sorry, been absent with work.
Latest from my friend.
"General Surovikin is either better at explaining things to "Putin", or whoever the heck is running Russia currently. Or, he just do not give a **** about "Putins" opinion, and is instead just getting on with saving whatever can be saved of the failed war.
He has started to pull out Russian troops from Kherson and is trying to get Russian civilians out of there as fast as possible.
The evacuation order for the civilian Russian citizens was given by Mikhail Mishustin, the Prime Minister of Russia and not "Putin", and that speaks volumes.
It is unclear if the evacuation is for "original citizens", or if it includes the force passported Ukrainians also. I bet the latter group is not eager to go to Russia...
This has given Ukraine a very good shot at ending the Kherson campaign fast.
They already have a lot of forces there, enough to slowly push the Russians, and that was fine before.
But, if you want to take a lot of prissoners it is not enough.
Also, previously Ukraine did not have enough forces to do a quick push, after all they had a lot of fronts to cover.
Just as a reminder, we are talking about Belarus border front, Kharkiv front, Luhansk front, Donetsk front, Zhaporizhzhia front and Kherson Front.
Time to digress
As more troups finished training both at home, and in the UK (and other more sneaky places), Ukraine could set up Brigade after Brigade after Brigade...
This is what made the two offensives possible in Kharkiv/Luhansk and Kherson.
The success in Kharkiv/Luhansk meant that they needed a second group up there that can strike either into Belarus sideways, or up into Russia itself. This was the Tick option.
A third group was set up as an Army in waiting in Zhaporizhzhia for the moment that Ukraine could thunder run down towards Crimea. The Tock option.
And between them the manouvre unit was set up that could go either way as and when needed. This gave Surovikins predecessor a big headache.
Surovikins answer was to put a few Russian soldiers in Belarus (mobilised Blyatniks that pulled the winning lottery ticket), and had "Putin" force Lukashanka to mobilise and move a bit of troops to the border, then he had Lukashenka blather ominiously about attacking Ukraine. He then stole their remaining heavy equipment and ammo.
This attack will obviously not happen, but it is still locking the Tick Army in Waiting in place for the time being.
He also started to pull back troops from Eastern Kherson that his moroonic predecessor had sent from Melitopol. And now he is attempting to pull out of Western Kherson. If he succeed with that a Zhaporizhzhia offensive would immediately become much harder.
Time to dedigress back to Kherson
Having 15 000 troops relocate to defend in Zhaporizhzhia is something that Ukraine does not want.
So, what to do if you want to catch them as prisoners, or just kill them quickly?
Well, you Tack.
That is simply to take that Army in Waiting decider and move it rapidly to Kherson, and make the army group there into a full army. Currently there is a 3 to 1 advantage to Ukraine, but defence always have an advantage, that is why the Kherson offensive is so slow.
Moving in that manouve army group would shift the advantage to 6 to 1, and with the superior equipment, morale and ammunition advantage... It will crush the Russians in a week, or less.
After Kherson
Tack is a masterstroke in tactics, and it shows how goddamn fast the Ukrainians adapt to new Russian tactics, and how fast they can adapt to new situations caused by the opposing commander.
After winning in Kherson Ukraine will hopefully have 5 000 Russians that fled in their underwear, 5 000 dead and wounded Russians, and a full 5 000 POWs with fairly low losses to their own side.
After a few days rest a full 90 000 women and men can swing round, connect to the 50 000 stationed in Zhaporizhzhia and just smash through down through Melitopol and further into Crimea, there is nothing that Russia can do against that force of well equiped Ukrainians full of victory and bloodthirst.
Surovikin
I began a few musings ago with stating that Surovikin was competent and brutal.
He has so far done everything right, and used the pathetic army he has been dealt in a very skilled way.
Three, or even two months ago, his manouvres would have been a tremendous pain in the **** for the Ukrainians.
It would not have won the war, but it would have delayed the war with months, and cost Ukraine a lot more in blood.
Now?
Well, he seems to be aiming at becoming the general who lost a war in the least humiliating way after Guderian.
We could from getgo see that he had a grasp across the entire theatre, and operated the units as they should be used. This has not happened before on the Russian side.
Ukraine should be greatful that he was not leading the army on the day the invasion began.
Seeing how Surovikin thinks and acts would have given Russia everything East of Dnipro within two weeks in my estimation. Problem is that Putin was not weak enough to let a professional do the job without medling and giving idiotic mission statements.
Asimov
A strong emperor in a weak empire can't tolerate a strong general, and a strong general with a weak emperor will turn inwards and take the throne.
While Putin was strong the Strong general was kept out of circulation, but as Putin weakened the Strong general came into the foreground.
This is what saved Ukraine as the weakening Galactic Empire stretched out into the periphery under it's last great general.
In the end this hastened the demise of the Galactic Empire.
Here is where the analogy ends, because the security service acts (still) as a safeguard against Surovikin going for the throne, and he does not have the Ceasarian victory to ride across the Rubicon on.
I do though give Asimov that he would have made an outstanding general.
For Surovikin it is to late. All he can do is die graciously in a ditch somewhere, or write memoirs.
Latest from my friend.
"General Surovikin is either better at explaining things to "Putin", or whoever the heck is running Russia currently. Or, he just do not give a **** about "Putins" opinion, and is instead just getting on with saving whatever can be saved of the failed war.
He has started to pull out Russian troops from Kherson and is trying to get Russian civilians out of there as fast as possible.
The evacuation order for the civilian Russian citizens was given by Mikhail Mishustin, the Prime Minister of Russia and not "Putin", and that speaks volumes.
It is unclear if the evacuation is for "original citizens", or if it includes the force passported Ukrainians also. I bet the latter group is not eager to go to Russia...
This has given Ukraine a very good shot at ending the Kherson campaign fast.
They already have a lot of forces there, enough to slowly push the Russians, and that was fine before.
But, if you want to take a lot of prissoners it is not enough.
Also, previously Ukraine did not have enough forces to do a quick push, after all they had a lot of fronts to cover.
Just as a reminder, we are talking about Belarus border front, Kharkiv front, Luhansk front, Donetsk front, Zhaporizhzhia front and Kherson Front.
Time to digress
As more troups finished training both at home, and in the UK (and other more sneaky places), Ukraine could set up Brigade after Brigade after Brigade...
This is what made the two offensives possible in Kharkiv/Luhansk and Kherson.
The success in Kharkiv/Luhansk meant that they needed a second group up there that can strike either into Belarus sideways, or up into Russia itself. This was the Tick option.
A third group was set up as an Army in waiting in Zhaporizhzhia for the moment that Ukraine could thunder run down towards Crimea. The Tock option.
And between them the manouvre unit was set up that could go either way as and when needed. This gave Surovikins predecessor a big headache.
Surovikins answer was to put a few Russian soldiers in Belarus (mobilised Blyatniks that pulled the winning lottery ticket), and had "Putin" force Lukashanka to mobilise and move a bit of troops to the border, then he had Lukashenka blather ominiously about attacking Ukraine. He then stole their remaining heavy equipment and ammo.
This attack will obviously not happen, but it is still locking the Tick Army in Waiting in place for the time being.
He also started to pull back troops from Eastern Kherson that his moroonic predecessor had sent from Melitopol. And now he is attempting to pull out of Western Kherson. If he succeed with that a Zhaporizhzhia offensive would immediately become much harder.
Time to dedigress back to Kherson
Having 15 000 troops relocate to defend in Zhaporizhzhia is something that Ukraine does not want.
So, what to do if you want to catch them as prisoners, or just kill them quickly?
Well, you Tack.
That is simply to take that Army in Waiting decider and move it rapidly to Kherson, and make the army group there into a full army. Currently there is a 3 to 1 advantage to Ukraine, but defence always have an advantage, that is why the Kherson offensive is so slow.
Moving in that manouve army group would shift the advantage to 6 to 1, and with the superior equipment, morale and ammunition advantage... It will crush the Russians in a week, or less.
After Kherson
Tack is a masterstroke in tactics, and it shows how goddamn fast the Ukrainians adapt to new Russian tactics, and how fast they can adapt to new situations caused by the opposing commander.
After winning in Kherson Ukraine will hopefully have 5 000 Russians that fled in their underwear, 5 000 dead and wounded Russians, and a full 5 000 POWs with fairly low losses to their own side.
After a few days rest a full 90 000 women and men can swing round, connect to the 50 000 stationed in Zhaporizhzhia and just smash through down through Melitopol and further into Crimea, there is nothing that Russia can do against that force of well equiped Ukrainians full of victory and bloodthirst.
Surovikin
I began a few musings ago with stating that Surovikin was competent and brutal.
He has so far done everything right, and used the pathetic army he has been dealt in a very skilled way.
Three, or even two months ago, his manouvres would have been a tremendous pain in the **** for the Ukrainians.
It would not have won the war, but it would have delayed the war with months, and cost Ukraine a lot more in blood.
Now?
Well, he seems to be aiming at becoming the general who lost a war in the least humiliating way after Guderian.
We could from getgo see that he had a grasp across the entire theatre, and operated the units as they should be used. This has not happened before on the Russian side.
Ukraine should be greatful that he was not leading the army on the day the invasion began.
Seeing how Surovikin thinks and acts would have given Russia everything East of Dnipro within two weeks in my estimation. Problem is that Putin was not weak enough to let a professional do the job without medling and giving idiotic mission statements.
Asimov
A strong emperor in a weak empire can't tolerate a strong general, and a strong general with a weak emperor will turn inwards and take the throne.
While Putin was strong the Strong general was kept out of circulation, but as Putin weakened the Strong general came into the foreground.
This is what saved Ukraine as the weakening Galactic Empire stretched out into the periphery under it's last great general.
In the end this hastened the demise of the Galactic Empire.
Here is where the analogy ends, because the security service acts (still) as a safeguard against Surovikin going for the throne, and he does not have the Ceasarian victory to ride across the Rubicon on.
I do though give Asimov that he would have made an outstanding general.
For Surovikin it is to late. All he can do is die graciously in a ditch somewhere, or write memoirs.
No idea myself, but I have seen very well informed people having to alter their assessment on a daily basis. I didn't post some of the stuff from the last week because it was just too bleak.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Lots of the dictator's army could freeze in winter with their lack of clothing. Can be kicked a bit further out of the areas they are going to lose soon enough anyway
Quicker every inch of Ukraine - including Crimea - is liberated the better
Quicker every inch of Ukraine - including Crimea - is liberated the better
WeeGord
Well-known member
If it gets to the Baltic states then we're in WW3. Russia in particular decimated but global devastation and Europe and North America just ashes.
That was his plan, but there is no chance of that now. He wanted a clear corridor from Kalingrad down to Odessa, but also to take Scandinavia, so that the Baltic fleet could operate freely.