TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
All I can say is seeing and reading the devastation and effects it has on people and animals it shows that Putin is pure evil
Difference is that Vietnam, Afghan and Iraq were not organised armies with top grade western weaponry. It won't and can't last as long as those wars, but yes, there is probably still a long way to go to a resolutionI can't see this war ending in 2023 - probably, not even half way through it yet.
Americans troops were in Vietnam for 8 years
Soviets in Afghanistan for 8 years
We were in Iraq for 6 years, Americans longer I think.
Both sides need to negotiate and there is no sign of this.
As horrible as this war is there is nothing to negotiate until russia returns every inch of the sovereign territory of Ukraine and the only way i can see that happening is regime change in Russia or to be physically removed.I can't see this war ending in 2023 - probably, not even half way through it yet.
Americans troops were in Vietnam for 8 years
Soviets in Afghanistan for 8 years
We were in Iraq for 6 years, Americans longer I think.
Both sides need to negotiate and there is no sign of this.
How do you propose to negotiate with Putin?Both sides need to negotiate and there is no sign of this.
The wars you mention in most parts(Iraq maybe not as much at first) where guerrilla warfare also the same during the troubles in Northern Ireland, going back even further the Spanish resistance during the Peninsular war in the Napoleon era. These wars are known for not many if any set battles and battle grounds(trench warfare, defensive positions, offensives and counter offensives etc etc).I can't see this war ending in 2023 - probably, not even half way through it yet.
Americans troops were in Vietnam for 8 years
Soviets in Afghanistan for 8 years
We were in Iraq for 6 years, Americans longer I think.
Both sides need to negotiate and there is no sign of this.
Organised armies could actually make it longer - WW1 and WW2 were not short wars. I understand where you are coming from about bandit type wars in remote areas can go on for decades. Vietnam was mainly the North Vietnamese Army, the Americans were fighting. The NVA were very organised, but avoided open areas until the US starting to withdraw.Difference is that Vietnam, Afghan and Iraq were not organised armies with top grade western weaponry. It won't and can't last as long as those wars, but yes, there is probably still a long way to go to a resolution
It only needs those while it continues a hostile relationship with the west. There is the negotiating chip, stop the aggressions, invest and trade, and in return you don't need/want these things.The Russian Federation needs/wants an outlet to a warm water port for its Navy. It also needs/wants a buffer zone between it and the West.
Andy - you may be right and it might end within 6 months, but American Generals said the same roughly for over 5 years in the 1960s. North Vietnam forces would collapse under mass bombing/poisoning, just give me a few more troops and bombs.I'm far from an expert, and I'm not as up-to-date as some on here but I think/ hope it will be largely over before the end of the year, maybe within a few months.
Russia have stopped progressing it seems, and seem to have been losing ground for over a year. Inevitably there's going to be some sort of retreat by them in the coming months. Maybe all we need is a tipping point where enough becomes enough, and there seems to be a few ways this could end:
- Putin backs down and runs away with his tail between his legs
- His troops run away
- His troops get cut off
- His troops run out of ammo
- Civil War in Russia
- Putin finds his way to a window
- Putin ends himself
- Economic strangulation
- NATO supplies Ukraine with more and more arms, and of better quality, as an inverse to what Russia is able to supply it's own troops
- Combination of most of the above (most likely it seems)
Putin doesn't even have the energy bargaining chip now either (or nowhere near to the same level), the EU has adopted (amazingly quickly to be honest, but they had to).
pack of nonsense, if they fear invasion from the west, why would the west invade via the sea when a) that's a really dangerous thing to do as ships can be sunk and b) there is a 1,600 mile NATO land border where NATO could amass a land army with 5 times the men and 100 times the military assets.The Russians have a very long term fear of invasion from the West, where they are virtually no geographical obstacles and history of large invasions from Western powers (Napoleon and Hitler, possibly the Kaiser too in WW1). Their Northern ports are often blocked by ice in the Winter, bottling its Fleet up for 5 month of the year. (see Prisoners of Geography by Marshall) They obviously get a bit shaky when a large country bordering the belly of the Russian Federation says it wants to join NATO and militarily aligned with countries who in the past have threatened the existence of Russia.
The needs have been a Russian desire for over 200 years at least - according Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall - Most countries feel the need for physical security, with their armed forces, look at USA massive trade power but also massive armed forces. If you ask them they will say in case we are attacked - which was the last country to invade the USA?It only needs those while it continues a hostile relationship with the west. There is the negotiating chip, stop the aggressions, invest and trade, and in return you don't need/want these things.
Putin is a nasty piece of work and it was wrong for the Russian Federation to invade and bomb Ukraine in 2022.
However faced with what the current situation is:
The Russian Federation needs/wants an outlet to a warm water port for its Navy. It also needs/wants a buffer zone between it and the West.
To me those are negotiation chips in return for Russian Federation withdrawal and peace.
If you don't offer anything the war is very likely to go on. Especially when both sides broadly feels they are right. (look at WW1).
Some background
The Russians have a very long term fear of invasion from the West, where they are virtually no geographical obstacles and history of large invasions from Western powers (Napoleon and Hitler, possibly the Kaiser too in WW1). Their Northern ports are often blocked by ice in the Winter, bottling its Fleet up for 5 month of the year. (see Prisoners of Geography by Marshall) They obviously get a bit shaky when a large country bordering the belly of the Russian Federation says it wants to join NATO and militarily aligned with countries who in the past have threatened the existence of Russia.
The Donbass region and Crimea are politically and socially different to the rest of the Ukraine. For example Crimea was not part of the Ukraine set in 1991. For those military historians on here you will know the UK fought a war in Crimea in the 1850s, against the Russians under the Czar. It was not fought against Ukrainians. Hence Crimea was then judged part of Russia then. The Soviets joined Crimea to Ukraine in 1921 due I believe for administrative reasons, but in 1991 it was split away, when Ukraine declared independence. Crimea was then judged an independent republic. Posters on here have told me on here the Donbass was an area of heavy industry and many people moved there from other countries and from outside of the region. Stalin in particular moved people there from other areas of the Soviet Union, particularly to work in the cities. Most people in the Donbass and Crimea speak Russian as their first language, unlike the rest of the Ukraine. (Wikipedia).
The problem is, how do you negotiate with a bullying pariah state led by a gangster?I can't see this war ending in 2023 - probably, not even half way through it yet.
Americans troops were in Vietnam for 8 years
Soviets in Afghanistan for 8 years
We were in Iraq for 6 years, Americans longer I think.
Both sides need to negotiate and there is no sign of this.
Tim Marshall basically wrote it. The Russian navy could be effectively bottled up it is a psychological fear as much as a real fear. TM was a journalist for SKY for 24 years. He went to grammar school in Otley I don't think he's pro-Russian or ill informed.pack of nonsense, if they fear invasion from the west, why would the west invade via the sea when a) that's a really dangerous thing to do as ships can be sunk and b) there is a 1,600 mile NATO land border where NATO could amass a land army with 5 times the men and 100 times the military assets.