italianjob
Well-known member
So, Russia has 'repelled' the offensive?!?!?
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
afcb_acklam
Well-known member
as always, v strange the bbc repeats the russian news agencies. presumably theres a reason they do this?!
Muttley
Well-known member
I would guess simply a lack of an alternative narrative. If the Ukraine side is keeping schtum there is little else to be said. Also OPSEC.
TeaCider
Well-known member
It's a pretty major announcement, and the Ukrainians haven't said anything.
They make it clear that it's what Russia has said, rather than it's definitely what happened, and that it's not been independently verified, so I don't see a massive issue.
Even if it was true, and you can be certain they're exaggerating, I very much doubt that the "major offensive" is the entire counter-offensive, it consisted of one attack and that's it.
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Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
From what I can see on social media(which is surprisingly little, so OPSEC is definitely in effect), Russia are making a big deal of any kind of victory and Russian bots and trolls are out in force while Ukraine can't respond due to OPSEC, along side the Russian mentality of lives are cheap, if Russia lost 10000 troops in a battle but killed 200 Ukrainian soldiers they would make a big deal of the 200 KIA Ukrainians and claim a victory.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Internal fighting will do more damage to Russia than Ukraine could ever do. The way Russia is/was ran in a mafia style system with a over boss and different factions under him who have little to do with each other and distrust and suspicion encouraged between them, when things are going well and the leader can rule with an iron fist and use this system of mistrust to stop anyone getting stronger and making a play for power, but when the leader isn't strong and each faction starts fighting each other or even worse(from the systems point of view) making alliances between factions this can quickly turn into a power struggle and in this case possibly even a civil war.
Ok, here's the latest. Some of which you may already know, some you won't.
"This will just be a short update on what has happened in the last 24 hours.
Belgorod
Even though Russia has put in regular army forces they are struggling, in fact they are losing.
Two hours ago The Free Russia Legion et al., had taken 200 square kilometres of Belgorod Russian territory.
The Free Russia Legion has been reinforced by the equally independent Georgian Legion, and somehow or somewhere from 300 Polish paratroopers materialised complete with gear calling themselves something along the line of The Independent Polish Legion. Yeah...
Over on the Russian side the regular army is struggling to reinforce the troops, and the ones on location are rather anemic C-Class troops (rear guards and maintenance troops) and not frontline troops.
This has led to Prigozhing claiming that he will send troops to guarantee the life and freedom of the Russian citizens in Belgorod, whatever now that means.
After that Kadyrov got it into his head to say the same thing.
Currently no new Russian troops of any kind or ownership has arrived.
The Free Russian Legion captured quite a few Russian Army soldiers, and yesterday the governor tried to negotiate about them, but he lost his temper and started screaming incoherently on the phone and falsely claimed that the FRL has executed them.
Once again Prigozhin said that he was an idiot in a video, and stated that it is a normal thing to do prisoner exchanges with Ukraine oriented troops.
He then called directly to the FRL commander, negotiated their release via Ukraine in the standard manner.
Here it is worth to notice that Prigozhin was very polite in both video and in the phone call, and treated openly the FRL commander as a colleague of sorts.
Weirdly enough they are sort of colleagues, or opponents for the power of Russia...
Wagner
Nobody has probably missed that Wagner and the regular Russian Army got into a gunfight yesterday, and that Wagner won after capturing the commander and killing 11 Russian soldiers.
Things are really going to **** in Russia.
Propagandists
Yesterday the propagandists on Russian TV openly started to talk about the risk of losing the war, and that Russia should negotiate for peace and that the peace might come at unfavourable terms.
Someone upon high (whoever now may remain) seem to have recognized that things are truly gone to **** with their "SMO".
Bakhmut
Ukraine pushed forward on the flank near Bakhmut, and advanced about 400 meters into the city.
There was also hard shelling of the Klichi'ivka defense fortress.
Zhaporizhzhia
Yesterday Ukraine attacked at Brigade strength both Novodarivka and Neskuchne.
At both locations Ukraine breached the first line after hard fighting.
From Novodarivka they then attacked Pyuvutne to the south and eastward to Rivnopil.
From Neskuchne they rapidly attacked Storoshevo.
Then a third Brigade attacked from a new direction eastwards into Levadne.
At around this time there was a tank on tank battle that Ukraine won using Leopard 2 tanks against cope-cage T-55s.
At the end of the breaching Ukraine had taken around 5km in length, and 1-2km in depth.
This was the situation in the afternoon yesterday, and is about as far in time I can talk about.
Frontline
Right now Ukraine is shelling the entire frontline to various degrees.
It ranges from a couple of grenades now and then per kilometre, to hundreds per hour for some parts.
Let us just say that it was not a good day and night for the Russians.
Moo's-Cow and Perkelegrad (St Petersburg)
People are now openly fighting in the streets, and there are now openly people protesting against the war.
Police is only stepping in if there are fights, but very few arrests of protesters are happening.
It is still small scale, but it is growing, and may take off into major protests rapidly.
I think that if and when things erupt it will go very quickly.
I also think that the likelihood of a coup is extremely high now.
On top of that I am fairly certain that within the next six months there will be a civil war of some sort, and that parts of Russia will leave the federation during the next six months.
Russia is indeed on the brink of imploding now due to the power vacuum.
My biggest takeaway from the day is that both Strelkov and Prigozhin are now openly talking about and treating the FRL as a proper Russian opposition movement deserving respect.
I think that if the FRL succeeds in growing sufficiently that either of them my throw their support their way, most likely Strelkov will be the first of them.
The political wing of the FRL, the Free Russia Movement (FRM) under Ilya Ponomarov knows both of them, and we are certain that he has talked to both of them.
At the current juncture we are not sure who Prigozhing would even fire upon if he indeed sends Wagner into Bilhorod.
He is definitely done with the MOD after they first tried to mine the roads for Wagner, and then opened fire upon them as they withdrew from Bakhmut.
And Wagner is already at odds with Kadyrov.
I would say it is 50/50 that he will fire upon the regular Russian army and the Kadyrovites, instead of the FRL.
And there is about the same ratio that those in turn will open fire first upon Wagner.
It is also here good to once more remember how respectful the conversation was between Prigozhin and the FRL was, and on top of that everyone is forgetting all the time that Wagner is a for-profit mercenary company.
It is quite possible that someone has offered a handsome wad of cash to PMC Wagner for switching sides.
If I was the Russian MOD I would never let Wagner into Bilhorod, at any cost.
It is probably good that I am not the Russian MOD since even a fat half-deaf and half-blind gerbil like me would be an immense competence improvement on their side. "
"This will just be a short update on what has happened in the last 24 hours.
Belgorod
Even though Russia has put in regular army forces they are struggling, in fact they are losing.
Two hours ago The Free Russia Legion et al., had taken 200 square kilometres of Belgorod Russian territory.
The Free Russia Legion has been reinforced by the equally independent Georgian Legion, and somehow or somewhere from 300 Polish paratroopers materialised complete with gear calling themselves something along the line of The Independent Polish Legion. Yeah...
Over on the Russian side the regular army is struggling to reinforce the troops, and the ones on location are rather anemic C-Class troops (rear guards and maintenance troops) and not frontline troops.
This has led to Prigozhing claiming that he will send troops to guarantee the life and freedom of the Russian citizens in Belgorod, whatever now that means.
After that Kadyrov got it into his head to say the same thing.
Currently no new Russian troops of any kind or ownership has arrived.
The Free Russian Legion captured quite a few Russian Army soldiers, and yesterday the governor tried to negotiate about them, but he lost his temper and started screaming incoherently on the phone and falsely claimed that the FRL has executed them.
Once again Prigozhin said that he was an idiot in a video, and stated that it is a normal thing to do prisoner exchanges with Ukraine oriented troops.
He then called directly to the FRL commander, negotiated their release via Ukraine in the standard manner.
Here it is worth to notice that Prigozhin was very polite in both video and in the phone call, and treated openly the FRL commander as a colleague of sorts.
Weirdly enough they are sort of colleagues, or opponents for the power of Russia...
Wagner
Nobody has probably missed that Wagner and the regular Russian Army got into a gunfight yesterday, and that Wagner won after capturing the commander and killing 11 Russian soldiers.
Things are really going to **** in Russia.
Propagandists
Yesterday the propagandists on Russian TV openly started to talk about the risk of losing the war, and that Russia should negotiate for peace and that the peace might come at unfavourable terms.
Someone upon high (whoever now may remain) seem to have recognized that things are truly gone to **** with their "SMO".
Bakhmut
Ukraine pushed forward on the flank near Bakhmut, and advanced about 400 meters into the city.
There was also hard shelling of the Klichi'ivka defense fortress.
Zhaporizhzhia
Yesterday Ukraine attacked at Brigade strength both Novodarivka and Neskuchne.
At both locations Ukraine breached the first line after hard fighting.
From Novodarivka they then attacked Pyuvutne to the south and eastward to Rivnopil.
From Neskuchne they rapidly attacked Storoshevo.
Then a third Brigade attacked from a new direction eastwards into Levadne.
At around this time there was a tank on tank battle that Ukraine won using Leopard 2 tanks against cope-cage T-55s.
At the end of the breaching Ukraine had taken around 5km in length, and 1-2km in depth.
This was the situation in the afternoon yesterday, and is about as far in time I can talk about.
Frontline
Right now Ukraine is shelling the entire frontline to various degrees.
It ranges from a couple of grenades now and then per kilometre, to hundreds per hour for some parts.
Let us just say that it was not a good day and night for the Russians.
Moo's-Cow and Perkelegrad (St Petersburg)
People are now openly fighting in the streets, and there are now openly people protesting against the war.
Police is only stepping in if there are fights, but very few arrests of protesters are happening.
It is still small scale, but it is growing, and may take off into major protests rapidly.
I think that if and when things erupt it will go very quickly.
I also think that the likelihood of a coup is extremely high now.
On top of that I am fairly certain that within the next six months there will be a civil war of some sort, and that parts of Russia will leave the federation during the next six months.
Russia is indeed on the brink of imploding now due to the power vacuum.
My biggest takeaway from the day is that both Strelkov and Prigozhin are now openly talking about and treating the FRL as a proper Russian opposition movement deserving respect.
I think that if the FRL succeeds in growing sufficiently that either of them my throw their support their way, most likely Strelkov will be the first of them.
The political wing of the FRL, the Free Russia Movement (FRM) under Ilya Ponomarov knows both of them, and we are certain that he has talked to both of them.
At the current juncture we are not sure who Prigozhing would even fire upon if he indeed sends Wagner into Bilhorod.
He is definitely done with the MOD after they first tried to mine the roads for Wagner, and then opened fire upon them as they withdrew from Bakhmut.
And Wagner is already at odds with Kadyrov.
I would say it is 50/50 that he will fire upon the regular Russian army and the Kadyrovites, instead of the FRL.
And there is about the same ratio that those in turn will open fire first upon Wagner.
It is also here good to once more remember how respectful the conversation was between Prigozhin and the FRL was, and on top of that everyone is forgetting all the time that Wagner is a for-profit mercenary company.
It is quite possible that someone has offered a handsome wad of cash to PMC Wagner for switching sides.
If I was the Russian MOD I would never let Wagner into Bilhorod, at any cost.
It is probably good that I am not the Russian MOD since even a fat half-deaf and half-blind gerbil like me would be an immense competence improvement on their side. "
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Yep.
Insane thing to do. That's Crimea's water supply done for.
"Russia has blown up the Nova Kakhovka dam, probably as a cover for withdrawing from those parts of Ukraine.
The consequences are immense, truly staggering.
Ukraine has a very good plan for evacuation if they did this on their controled side.
Problem is that the bulk of damage will be on the low banked side towards the south of the river, and the Russians there will not evacuate anyone.
So, on the Russian occupied side we can expect high casualty rates among civilian Ukrainian.
It is also an environmental disaster that will take years to clear up.
This means that there are actually two separate war crimes here.
Then we have that they have condemned themselves to an acute water shortage in Crimea.
The water coming across the bridge is by far not enough to sustain them, especially in the northern parts of Crimea.
But, the worst part is that now the Zhaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is in acute risk status.
The internal cooling dam contain roughly two weeks of water to cool the spent fuel, and to cycle water through the shuttered reactors (all of them are shuttered).
After that disaster will strike and the area will be irradiated, how much is anyones guess right now.
Consequences
I fear that this was the moment that NATO have to say enough and enter the war.
And it must be done very fast to secure the ZPP, install pumps, and pump water up from the river into the cooling dam.
A mamoth project if I ever heard of one.
I just hope that our politicians have the balls to do what is needed now."
I'm not certain he's right about the conclusion here. But it's probably the single most damaging event of the war.
Insane thing to do. That's Crimea's water supply done for.
"Russia has blown up the Nova Kakhovka dam, probably as a cover for withdrawing from those parts of Ukraine.
The consequences are immense, truly staggering.
Ukraine has a very good plan for evacuation if they did this on their controled side.
Problem is that the bulk of damage will be on the low banked side towards the south of the river, and the Russians there will not evacuate anyone.
So, on the Russian occupied side we can expect high casualty rates among civilian Ukrainian.
It is also an environmental disaster that will take years to clear up.
This means that there are actually two separate war crimes here.
Then we have that they have condemned themselves to an acute water shortage in Crimea.
The water coming across the bridge is by far not enough to sustain them, especially in the northern parts of Crimea.
But, the worst part is that now the Zhaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is in acute risk status.
The internal cooling dam contain roughly two weeks of water to cool the spent fuel, and to cycle water through the shuttered reactors (all of them are shuttered).
After that disaster will strike and the area will be irradiated, how much is anyones guess right now.
Consequences
I fear that this was the moment that NATO have to say enough and enter the war.
And it must be done very fast to secure the ZPP, install pumps, and pump water up from the river into the cooling dam.
A mamoth project if I ever heard of one.
I just hope that our politicians have the balls to do what is needed now."
I'm not certain he's right about the conclusion here. But it's probably the single most damaging event of the war.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Very very scary and this for me is the huge false flag moment which was rumoured last week on the power plant. This has certainly upped the stakes in this war and brought the world closer to involvement with such a major disaster. Russia have literally gone on a scorched earth tactic, they will be salting fields next!
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
I think this is a desperate act in several ways.
With regards to Crimea I think they know they are about to lose the war, and taking into account that Russia gives zero clucks about human life. If Ukraine now blow up the bridge the Russians will cry foul play and say that Ukraine is killing innocent people by denying them drinking water.
In my eyes this move by the Russians is beyond war and is blatant genocide and something straight out of the medieval times warfare.
This is clearly an absolute disaster and a war crime (if initial assessment turns out to be true l) but I think your mate is going a bit Dr strangelove here... I'd go as far to say that it would be veering into false flag territory if this happening was used as a reason to escalate to WW3, which it would be.
On the one hand he says UKR have everything they need and are winning handily.
On the other he's saying now we need NATO going to war with Russia.
If point 1 is true then doing point 2 effectively guarantees a nuclear holocaust.
I'm in my 30's I'd like to have a chance of having a full life, my children having a full life etc.
I think he is probably over-reacting a little. Like the rest of us, he just wants it to end quickly.
I should add that we, as a nation, have form for busting dams and killing civilians.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
I think the point of NATO getting involved is more to do with the largest nuclear powerplant in Europe on emergency mode and probably not far from a full meltdown(also considering the damage already done to the site). This could quite easily affect other NATO members and possibly trigger article 5.
h_m_boro
Well-known member
The Russian propaganda machine has started, claiming it was an act of sabotage by Ukraine.....
.
Their proof is a clip of Russian engineers turing up to assess the damage and see if anything can be done to fix it. Think their plumber from Moscow with a couple of monkey wrenches and 2 rolls of gaffer tape might have his work cut out with this one?
.Their proof is a clip of Russian engineers turing up to assess the damage and see if anything can be done to fix it. Think their plumber from Moscow with a couple of monkey wrenches and 2 rolls of gaffer tape might have his work cut out with this one?
johnmfc
Member
There was an episode by that American analyst on YouTube where he said that their is a large nato force on standby ready-to-go in and take the power plant if needed and setup a defensive area around it. Not necessarily there to take on the Russians but to protect the powerplant from having a catastrophic failure.
Andy_W
Well-known member
This is really bad news, and a despicable act from Russia, but to me it just looks like an act of desperation which effectively proves how much they're in the ****. If the Crimea water situation is true, then this basically looks like they're just effectively giving this up. Will be interesting to see if Water aid comes to Crimea via Ukraine, that would be good to see, and sticks two fingers up at Putin.
NATO won't enter the war, but this will just invigorate them further into supporting Ukraine with more and more, which is the right thing to do.
NATO won't enter the war, but this will just invigorate them further into supporting Ukraine with more and more, which is the right thing to do.
Millbrook
Well-known member
I don't think this is within Water Aids remit.
h_m_boro
Well-known member
But if NATO had to "take" the power plant ie having a big ruck with the Russians to take control (would the Russians just give up?) will this not potentially risk further sabotage? Russians see them coming, blow things up and retreat? Scorched earth policy on steroids?