The end?

borolad259 said:
I think there will be a period of radio silence from the Ukraine side. When it kicks off, it will be the Russian telegram channels that will be noisy. Girkin distills those channels. TBH, I don't know what is afoot, but my mate has intimated and several other key sources have implied that a hit is imminent. Part of this on the sicial media front will be to scare the bjeezus out of the hapless mobilised so that, if they have any sense, they wil scarper. Both Girkin and Pregozhin have come out in the last two days intimating that the Russian forces are going to struggle (read, be fecked). They're busy apportioning blame for what they know will happen. They are both, clearly, angling to be the new Tsar. Just go to sleep thankful that you aren't on the front line.
Click to expand...
There was a request shared on twitter for all home cctv systems to be turned off in Ukraine so there isn’t as much visibility of movements
 
Spoke to our man today. He has been "in the bunker" all week and will be so over the weekend too. Bit of a pisser for me, as we have stuff to do. Still, the greater good and all that. The Sudan and the whereabouts of Mr Valkyrie and his troops are his main preoccupation. He still says .... and I know this is glib, it's just his way ... black humour and all that ... "make sure you get the popcorn in".
Lots of "shaping" is already underway.

One thing was interesting. We got talking about Girkin/Strelkov. I was saying that, despite the obvious fact that he is an odious human being, I have actually sort of grown to like him. In particular his output on social media. Incredibly intelligent and articulate.
My mate replied that Strelkov is one of the best and most skilled "agents" out there. He was, after all, responsible for the successful "bloodless" annexations that started this whole **** show off. My mate suspects that Strelkov is behind goading Khadyrov and Prigozhin to pick a fight with each other. If so, in the darkest possible way "kudos". Very clever. And no, of course I haven't lost sight of the fact that people are dying. It's grim. I want it to end as soon as possible. But it's a war that has to be fought by the Ukraine, in some large part on our behalf. So the biggest kudos to them.
 
Screenshot_2023-06-02-21-13-37-53_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
It's a shame Girkin and Prigozhin fell out they used to be like brothers, here is a photo of them partying together in Moscow, notice the traditional Cossack shirt that Girkin is wearing.
 
this bloke seems a real charmer....


MOSCOW, June 3. /TASS/. Any future Russian political leader that will try to change the discourse on the country’s development that emerged in 2022, will be perceived as a traitor, so there will be no return to the "pre-war" past, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev opined on his Telegram channel Saturday.
He made this statement, commenting on "sweet dreams" of Russians who left the country about the return to previous times.
"I can say with certainty: there will be no return to ‘bright’ European past for them. And not only because they don’t love and don’t expect us there. […] Russia is an entirely different country now compared to the pre-war period. Leaders, parties and governments come and go, while the memory and values, cemented with blood, remain for a very long time. For decades, sometimes for centuries. They will not be changed, let alone destroyed, by any new leaders, whatever political force they represent (not to mention blatant traitors)," Medvedev said.
According to Medvedev, "only renegades who forgot about the death of our citizens can dream about the return to a friendly European family."

"[The death] of Russia’s civilians and fighters. Unfortunately, people have died," the official noted.
He drew an analogy with the USSR falling apart in late 1940s, with new Russian leadership calling the war with Nazi Germany wrong.
"It is clear what would have happened with such freaks. The memory about the horrible war of the soviet people and the dead close ones was fresh in every family. And the situation now is very similar, despite the different level of people’s involvement in the war," Medvedev stated.
"Therefore, any political leader that will try to change the discourse of the country’s development that emerged after February 24, 2022, will be anathematized as a traitor, as a person who betrayed the memory of our people who gave their lives in this war," the official said.
Speaking about people who left the country, Medvedev noted that they include "people of varying mental capabilities."
"There are no Bunins, Berdyayevs, Ilyins or Shalyapins among them, of course. So-so, mediocre folk," the politician said. He underscored that "these actors have no hope for a triumphant return."
"Relocated people are lonely and are not needed by anyone. Let them live, bleeding bile, accumulated from their anger. Or let them miserably remember the lost Homeland and the former glory while drinking a glass of red wine," the politician concluded.
 
afcb_acklam said:
this bloke seems a real charmer....


MOSCOW, June 3. /TASS/. Any future Russian political leader that will try to change the discourse on the country’s development that emerged in 2022, will be perceived as a traitor, so there will be no return to the "pre-war" past, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev opined on his Telegram channel Saturday.
He made this statement, commenting on "sweet dreams" of Russians who left the country about the return to previous times.
"I can say with certainty: there will be no return to ‘bright’ European past for them. And not only because they don’t love and don’t expect us there. […] Russia is an entirely different country now compared to the pre-war period. Leaders, parties and governments come and go, while the memory and values, cemented with blood, remain for a very long time. For decades, sometimes for centuries. They will not be changed, let alone destroyed, by any new leaders, whatever political force they represent (not to mention blatant traitors)," Medvedev said.
According to Medvedev, "only renegades who forgot about the death of our citizens can dream about the return to a friendly European family."

"[The death] of Russia’s civilians and fighters. Unfortunately, people have died," the official noted.
He drew an analogy with the USSR falling apart in late 1940s, with new Russian leadership calling the war with Nazi Germany wrong.
"It is clear what would have happened with such freaks. The memory about the horrible war of the soviet people and the dead close ones was fresh in every family. And the situation now is very similar, despite the different level of people’s involvement in the war," Medvedev stated.
"Therefore, any political leader that will try to change the discourse of the country’s development that emerged after February 24, 2022, will be anathematized as a traitor, as a person who betrayed the memory of our people who gave their lives in this war," the official said.
Speaking about people who left the country, Medvedev noted that they include "people of varying mental capabilities."
"There are no Bunins, Berdyayevs, Ilyins or Shalyapins among them, of course. So-so, mediocre folk," the politician said. He underscored that "these actors have no hope for a triumphant return."
"Relocated people are lonely and are not needed by anyone. Let them live, bleeding bile, accumulated from their anger. Or let them miserably remember the lost Homeland and the former glory while drinking a glass of red wine," the politician concluded.
Click to expand...
He's a drunk and an idiot. And likely as not he will be i prison or dead should certain "opponents" take charge.

Anyway, I missed this missive from our man in Ops last night ...

"This is a general update of what is happening.
And I hope you all have the snacks around...

Diesel
I guess that nobody has missed the penchant that Ukraine has had for hitting Russian refineries.
Russia has oodles of oil pipelines, pumping stations, etcetera... but they do not have oodles of refineries.
This has led to a beginning shortage of petrol and diesel in Russia.
So far it has just started to affect the prices at the pumps in the petrol stations, but soon it will become more problematic.
Especially after Ukraine blew up Russias largest refinery inside the Rostov Oblast a couple of days ago.
Come fall it will be horse and buggy at the going rate, it after all takes years to build a new refinery, and then you need the machinery and Russia does not produce that.
Oops.

Prigozhin vs Kadyrov
I guess that nobody have missed that the grudge match of the decade has erupted between Dondon and his Kadyrovites and Prigozhin and his Wagnerites.
Seeing the respective number two's Akhmat and Utkin threaten to kill the other was fairly funny.

Strelkov/Girkin is probably laughing his **** off as those two square off, since he is to directly benefit as they hurt each other in the upcoming presidential election/power struggle.
I would go so far to speculate that it is Strelkov that somehow got those two to go after each other.
He is after all that good.

I know that it is anathema to praize him in the eye's of any person from the Netherlands, but here goes...
We all tend to forget that Strelkov probably is the best Agent/Operative to have ever lived.
His skill level is just out there.
For 20 years he was the goto guy for Russia if they wanted a war, or take over a country.
It is basically the wet dream of an Operative to take over parts of a country without firing a bullet, and he did it twice.
I would go so far that to the best of my knowledge he never failed in any undertaking.
Complete and utter sociopath? Yes, but a damned skilled one.

Our best profilers are convinced that he is mostly upset that Putin bungled what he did by starting this war.
I bet he had a plan to take more parts using other methods instead of this total cockup that Putin started.

Anyway, my point is that a bunch of clowns (Prigozhing, Kadyrov, Shoygu, etcetera) and incompetent buffoons are about to climb into the ring with what I in full seriousness consider to be the most dangerous man alive.

Moscow
We now know that all of the drones launched on Moscow was unarmed (no explosives), and the one that hit the building next to Konstantin's apartment did that due to a mistake, it hit just under the roofline since it was on the flightpath.
It was done to shake up the residents of Moscow.

All drones was aimed at Rublevka, the district of the über-rich.
This made most Russians laugh their arses off.

Bilhorod/Shebekino
After another massive shelling the Free Russia Movement waltzed up and went into Shebekino, and then galumphed back with even more equipment.
The governor of Bilhorod was even less amused this time around.
And to top it off Vladimir Peskov went public and stated that Shebekino was unimportant, that really made the Bilhorodians miffed learning that Bakhmut is more important than a Russian town of 40 000 Russians.
This helped the Free Russia Movement quite a bit with recruiting, there was many videos popping up all of a sudden of Russians swearing allegiance to them and joining their forces.
Oops...

Militarily this one stung quite a bit for Russia.
As the Russians reached Shebekino Russia sent out a small army column to chase them away, and deployed among other things both bombs and a thermobaric bomb.
One of the ordinary bombs landed inside Shebekino and blew up a street in the town, the thermobaric bomb exploded on the wrong side of the town, but looked very impressive.
Russia bragged that their thermobaric bomb exploded on target of course.
I find it hilarious that Russia has used 11 thermobaric bombs in the entire war, and one of them was used against Russian soil.
As the Russian army noticed that the Russians was alive an well they rode out unto the correct field, and the trap closed as 6 grads and 12 155mm tubes opened fire upon them.
Unlike Russia the Ukrainians know how to aim and had the coordinates set dead accurate.
The Russian army detachment was completely improved.

Bakhmut
Wagner is continuing to pull out, but no Kadyrovites have showed up, probably due to not wanting to meet any Wagnerites.
Who knew that Kadyrovites had a brain?
Otherwise there was only minor gains on the Ukrainian side, and most of the effort is now directed upon relentlessly pounding Klichi'ivka before the expected attack on that village.

Avdi'ivka
Here the Kadyrovites seem to have arrived, and in their usual way they tortured a few mobiks and raped a few others as motivation for them to attack the Ukrainian positions.
A few of them tried to attack, the rest hid in the trench, and others got together and stitched a somewhat white flag of their underwear and walked over to the Ukrainians to complain about how the Kadyrovites treated them.
Who ever knew that buggery was not motivational?

Out of Avdi'ivka there is now a relentless artillery barrage all the way from the frontline towards Donetsk City, continuing all the way to the other side of the City.
This caused Kadyrov heemseelf to ask the MOD for artillery shells to fire back, he got about as many as Prigozhin got, and thusly learned that they are there to die and not to win.
I give the Kadyrovites a couple of weeks before they go home to greener goat pastures in Chechnya.

Vuhledar
Ukraine is here firing both towards the front in the direction towards Donets City, and onward to the rear of the City.
They also continued to broaden their salient through the enemy positions, but at such a slow pace that it is more of corrections of maps as the Russians voluntarily left a couple of fields and positions.

The relentless firing against targets towards Mariupol continued, with a lot of fire now directed towards the first trenchline.
Otherwise not much happening here.

Zhaporizhzhia
Ukraine is from this part of the frontline mercilessly bombarding the logistics road and cutting bridges that go East/West, but leaving bridges North/South.
Here also there is now relentless firing on the first trench lines that are in the way of Tokmak and Melitopol.

Crimea
Interestingly enough missiles and drones have started to hit the two landbridge fortifications toward Crimea.
At the same time drone attacks on targets inside Crimea has become a daily thing, and the naval base is pretty much uninhabitable now after all the hits, same with the air base in Dzhankoi.

Kersh Bridge
This is definitely an unhealthy bridge, there have been a couple of images circulating showing two pilars with large cracks in them. The images have been confirmed to be real, but with the contrast severely turned up making the cracks look even worse than they are.
Being a curious b***r I ordered a civilian bridge engineer to look at it, and he confirmed that the pillars must be replaced for public safety.
Obviously he could not say more due to not having X-rayed them, but he said that they could indeed collapse at any time from in a minute to 25 years.
He also pointed out that the deck showed repair that looked like these pillars are the ones next to the fallen bridge span, and that the damage probably was caused by the bridge span part that hit them visible on many images.

Conclusion
The words relentless artillery barrage on the trenchlines is the takeaway.
Problem is just that we do not know how much the Ukrainians want to bombard them before going, after all the more preparation done, the fewer the casualties will be during the breaching.

Normally you do anything between a few hours and 5 days.
Judging from the raw amount that they are pouring they are done by now by Western standards and should already have gone through, but Ukraine seem to be a tad cautious...

My recommendation is still have copious amounts of popcorn and beer at hand.
Ukraine have a nasty habbit to go on the offensive on Friday/Saturday nights.
We thought they would go the night that was, but they seem to have held off a tad.
This means that I am still stuck in ops for yet another night of waiting.

I am technically not there for the Ukrainian offensive, but while I wait for an opportunity to improve Prigozhin I am volunteering night shift, people tend to have forgotten that I am here as a civilian consultant and not as the commander of the base... the line is actually a bit blurry in regards of what my powers truly are, but experienced commanders are in short supply and some sod get to sleep at home instead with his kids.

I personally hate popcorn, so I brought several cheeses and crackers and share freely during the night, and there is a bar of sorts here, but on shift I obviously do not touch any beer.
I have though brought a bottle of champagne in case I can improve Prigozhin.

Now I have reached the customary rambling stage, and my shift has started."

And to confirm what he says about Zhaporizhzia, this from Girkin's twitter
image_2023-06-03_154523611.png
 
I'm seeing videos and reports of civil unrest and looting in a couple of Russian cities(St Petersburg and Shebekino).

*Unconfirmed reports from what I have seen, but worth keeping a look out for this development.
 
A few words from the bunker (with OPSEC in mind)

"I will not write a lot about the offensive and how that is going in this musing, instad I will write about Bilhorod and the signs of total Russian moral collapse.

After the first attempt Russia did send out a motorised battalion under Lapins command to chase them away, and then they turned around and started going back to Luhansk.

Then the Russian Legion went back into Russia and attacked Shebekino as you know.
This time they bit down on the area and try to stay for as long as possible.

This time around Russia completely lost their marbles.
First Peskov stated that Bilhorod is not "special" and that Shebekino is not important.
I thought he was just being a d*ck and total media disaster, as per usual.
In retrospect it meant something very dark.

In the first day Russia shelled the villages between Shebekino and the border to Ukraine.
Then they performed a token evacuation that was supposed to be "free".
But, instead they charged 3000 roubles (37USD) to bus them to Voronezh and dump them in the street.
To top it off there was far to few buses, so only about 10 percent left Shebekino and the villages.

After that they started shelling positions all over the place, inside and outside of the villages and the town of Shebekino.
They used 152mm artillery, air bombardment, thermobaric missiles... on their own civilians.
This rapidly grew to beyond the capacity of the Legions ability to handle as they tried to save civilians, police the area from loters, and fight at the same time.

This lead Ukraine to open official green corridors from Shebekino and other towns along the border to Bilhorod Oblast.
They also sent in reinforcements to help secure the routes and to help police the villages and towns, leaving the actual fighting to the Russian Legion.
Slowly a trickle of Russian started to go across the border to safety.

During the night Russia upped the game and started to bombard Shebekino with white phosphorous shells in an attempt to burn the town to the ground.
Their. Own. Town.
We did not believe our eyes when we started to see the thermal blooms.
The link below is showing Russian forces video taping the attack, and laughing while their own countrymen burn to death in Shebekino.

Then translations started to trickle through from the Russians there, and we pieced together their orders.
Their orders are simple, not to engage directly, instead they have been ordered to burn down every town and city in Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk that is attacked by the Legion up to a depth of 50km from the border.
In other words, to depopulate the area by any means as fast as possible and create an unpopulated zone.

Let me reiterate, comparatively small Russian forces are using the two most powerful weapon types against their own population to burn the ground.

At this point something tickled in the back of my brain, I had read this before.
So I raced back and forth to the library and sat down and speed read the Soviet Cold War Doctrine.
I quickly found the chapters on what would be done if Russia was attacked.
1. Stage 1, create a manouvre space 50km by burning the ground, leave nothing and nobody behind that could be used by the invaders.
2. Use the created area as a kill zone, if needed use nuclear "mines" as a means to create an impregnable defence line.

Here it is important to make a distinction, it is completely up to Russia to bomb their own country with nukes.
It is only if they use them in Ukraine that they will be punished.

Obviously we are not yet at stage two, but they seem to be happily executing the first step.
At this point I just see it as a complete breakdown of moral and human decency in Russia.
If you are laughing while bombarding your own people, the you are a psychopath.

I fear that Russia is indeed going into the Stubborn Donkey War Mode.
Regardless of how beaten and humiliated they will be on the battle field, they will continue the war until there are no Russians left.
Lose in Ukraine, continue.
Win in Ukraine, continue.
Invaded, continue.
Until the civil war breaks out, or a coup starts, Russia will just not stop."
 
Last edited:
borolad259 said:
A few words from the bunker (with POSC in mind)

"I will not write a lot about the offensive and how that is going in this musing, instad I will write about Bilhorod and the signs of total Russian moral collapse.

After the first attempt Russia did send out a motorised battalion under Lapins command to chase them away, and then they turned around and started going back to Luhansk.

Then the Russian Legion went back into Russia and attacked Shebekino as you know.
This time they bit down on the area and try to stay for as long as possible.

This time around Russia completely lost their marbles.
First Peskov stated that Bilhorod is not "special" and that Shebekino is not important.
I thought he was just being a d*ck and total media disaster, as per usual.
In retrospect it meant something very dark.

In the first day Russia shelled the villages between Shebekino and the border to Ukraine.
Then they performed a token evacuation that was supposed to be "free".
But, instead they charged 3000 roubles (37USD) to bus them to Voronezh and dump them in the street.
To top it off there was far to few buses, so only about 10 percent left Shebekino and the villages.

After that they started shelling positions all over the place, inside and outside of the villages and the town of Shebekino.
They used 152mm artillery, air bombardment, thermobaric missiles... on their own civilians.
This rapidly grew to beyond the capacity of the Legions ability to handle as they tried to save civilians, police the area from loters, and fight at the same time.

This lead Ukraine to open official green corridors from Shebekino and other towns along the border to Bilhorod Oblast.
They also sent in reinforcements to help secure the routes and to help police the villages and towns, leaving the actual fighting to the Russian Legion.
Slowly a trickle of Russian started to go across the border to safety.

During the night Russia upped the game and started to bombard Shebekino with white phosphorous shells in an attempt to burn the town to the ground.
Their. Own. Town.
We did not believe our eyes when we started to see the thermal blooms.
The link below is showing Russian forces video taping the attack, and laughing while their own countrymen burn to death in Shebekino.

Then translations started to trickle through from the Russians there, and we pieced together their orders.
Their orders are simple, not to engage directly, instead they have been ordered to burn down every town and city in Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk that is attacked by the Legion up to a depth of 50km from the border.
In other words, to depopulate the area by any means as fast as possible and create an unpopulated zone.

Let me reiterate, comparatively small Russian forces are using the two most powerful weapon types against their own population to burn the ground.

At this point something tickled in the back of my brain, I had read this before.
So I raced back and forth to the library and sat down and speed read the Soviet Cold War Doctrine.
I quickly found the chapters on what would be done if Russia was attacked.
1. Stage 1, create a manouvre space 50km by burning the ground, leave nothing and nobody behind that could be used by the invaders.
2. Use the created area as a kill zone, if needed use nuclear "mines" as a means to create an impregnable defence line.

Here it is important to make a distinction, it is completely up to Russia to bomb their own country with nukes.
It is only if they use them in Ukraine that they will be punished.

Obviously we are not yet at stage two, but they seem to be happily executing the first step.
At this point I just see it as a complete breakdown of moral and human decency in Russia.
If you are laughing while bombarding your own people, the you are a psychopath.

I fear that Russia is indeed going into the Stubborn Donkey War Mode.
Regardless of how beaten and humiliated they will be on the battle field, they will continue the war until there are no Russians left.
Lose in Ukraine, continue.
Win in Ukraine, continue.
Invaded, continue.
Until the civil war breaks out, or a coup starts, Russia will just not stop."
Click to expand...
Sounds desperate, and, as you allude, a fight to the death.
 
In brief from the bond villain's hideout

"News that the Russian Governor Gladkov of Belgorod negotiating directly for prison exchange amnesty and a cease fire to save civilians is dropping like a bomb everywhere.
It seems like he went alone to talk to the Commander of the Free Russia Legion (balls on that dude, cudos really if true).

Here's my real point.
A. Governor. In. Russia. Acting. Against. Moscow.
It is illegal for a governor dealing with a foreign country, nor negotiating with a separatist movement.
It is a 25 year penalty on that.

It was when the Russian Army started to burn down Shebekino and other towns and villages and killing Russian citizens he had it.
It will be very interesting to see what will come out of this.
But one thing is clear, Russia is now on the brink of breaking up.

The image attached is a night time shot on an open shutter, and with colour grading done to it.
But it is a real image of the Russian Army murdering Russian citizens in their sleep by burning down Shebekino and surrounding villages.
Remember how those Russian soldiers giggled while they did it.
Animals. Utter animals.

Breaching
Now that it is out I can confirm that 5 brigades of mechanized infantry, tanks brigades, etcetera breached during the night.
It was bloody, and substantial losses occured, but they are through.
The brigades used only western gear during the breaching operations.

I will tell more as I can.
Please hold your thumbs, fingers, appendixes...
This is it."

Shebekino.png
 
Muttley said:
What madness. War is both fascinating and horrifying.

Thousands dead, injured, maimed physically and mentally, and for what? Lines on a map, pieces of coloured cloth, lies, deceit and avarice. What a species we are.

I just hope that this can be finished as quickly and as decisively as possible.

FFS.
Click to expand...

It really is insane.

1685911894609.png
 
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