The end?

[BoroMart]

The needs have been a Russian desire for over 200 years at least - according Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall - Most countries feel the need for physical security, with their armed forces, look at USA massive trade power but also massive armed forces. If you ask them they will say in case we are attacked - which was the last country to invade the USA?

probably the USA.

I get that, but, here's the thing, many european countries have had many wars, and guess what, they have reduced their armed forces and worked together for peace and prosperity. Russia has a middle ages mentality of conquer and conflict, eventually that needs knocking out of them. They can't be the schoolyard bully for ever.

 

[Andy_W]

Andy - you may be right and it might end within 6 months, but American Generals said the same roughly for over 5 years in the 1960s. North Vietnam forces would collapse under mass bombing/poisoning, just give me a few more troops and bombs.

I don't know a great deal about the Vietnam war, but wasn't the USA pretty much fighting that without the support of most of the world (and NATO)?

Quite a few differences with this (from a basic point of veiw):
It's not in the dense jungle which basically made modern weapons (for the 60's), and limited intelligence practically pointless/ useless
North Vietnamese were apparently very loyal, and in their own backyard, the Russians aren't going to be as loyal as Ukrainians, and don't want to be there (seemingly)
USA, and the world learned a lot from Vietnam I expect
All of NATO are on Ukraine's side
The volume of intelligence NATO has will be absolutely massive, and ever-increasing
NATO can fight and fund by proxy (no troop losses, no public outcry against it and no real reason to give up, quite the opposite)
Strangling NV's economy isn't really going to do a great deal, where as doing it to Russia's will
NV probably didn't have a load of restricted rich oligarchs, which Russia clearly does

I've been to the gulf a few times (for Iraq and Afgan etc), and it's extremely difficult fighting in a place you're not in the slightest bit used to, on an unimaginable level. But as much as it's obvisouly horrendous for Ukraine, it is the ideal climate for Ukrainians to fight (as well as Russians of course), but importantly it's a climate where most of NATO's gear will suit extremely well, even the old gear etc.

 

[TeessideCleveland]

Putin is a nasty piece of work and it was wrong for the Russian Federation to invade and bomb Ukraine in 2022.

However faced with what the current situation is:

The Russian Federation needs/wants an outlet to a warm water port for its Navy. It also needs/wants a buffer zone between it and the West.

To me those are negotiation chips in return for Russian Federation withdrawal and peace.

If you don't offer anything the war is very likely to go on. Especially when both sides broadly feels they are right. (look at WW1).

Some background

The Russians have a very long term fear of invasion from the West, where they are virtually no geographical obstacles and history of large invasions from Western powers (Napoleon and Hitler, possibly the Kaiser too in WW1). Their Northern ports are often blocked by ice in the Winter, bottling its Fleet up for 5 month of the year. (see Prisoners of Geography by Marshall) They obviously get a bit shaky when a large country bordering the belly of the Russian Federation says it wants to join NATO and militarily aligned with countries who in the past have threatened the existence of Russia.

The Donbass region and Crimea are politically and socially different to the rest of the Ukraine. For example Crimea was not part of the Ukraine set in 1991. For those military historians on here you will know the UK fought a war in Crimea in the 1850s, against the Russians under the Czar. It was not fought against Ukrainians. Hence Crimea was then judged part of Russia then. The Soviets joined Crimea to Ukraine in 1921 due I believe for administrative reasons, but in 1991 it was split away, when Ukraine declared independence. Crimea was then judged an independent republic. Posters on here have told me on here the Donbass was an area of heavy industry and many people moved there from other countries and from outside of the region. Stalin in particular moved people there from other areas of the Soviet Union, particularly to work in the cities. Most people in the Donbass and Crimea speak Russian as their first language, unlike the rest of the Ukraine. (Wikipedia).

ANYTHING that was invaded 2104 onwards needs to be given back to or taken back by Ukraine
Same for Moldova and Georgia
I'm still worried that Konigsberg might be used as a justification for the dictator's army to attack the Baltic countries too

 

[BoroMart]

Tim Marshall basically wrote it. The Russian navy could be effectively bottled up it is a psychological fear as much as a real fear.

It's not a rationale fear, and tough crap anyway, It's like Bolivia invading Peru because it wants a Navy.

 

[Cress]

As Churchill said
“The Statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”

 

[Boroboyyo]

Tim Marshall basically wrote it. The Russian navy could be effectively bottled up it is a psychological fear as much as a real fear. TM was a journalist for SKY for 24 years. He went to grammar school in Otley I don't think he's pro-Russian or ill informed.

Tim Marshall (journalist) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Again with the land border its a psychological fear. I am sure they don't like Poland and the Baltic States been in NATO, but its not as close Ukraine to Central parts of Russia.

An example of psychological fear is what happened after 911, Americans believed they were under threat and most believed they had to conduct a War on Terror.

20 million Soviet citizens died in WW2 when their country was invaded from Western Europe - it sticks in the National Psyche for a long time.

Sorry but the whole revolution in Ukraine in 2014 wasn’t over nato , it was the eu . Ukraine wanted to be in the eu , and I’m not surprised given polands economy is like treble Ukraine’s now, when in the soviet times they were roughly equal . They told their president at the time they want closer eu integration . He promised he would, only he lied and tried forging closer ties to Russia due to corruption . He was rightly ousted because he promised something only to completely do a 180 and move them closer to something they didn’t want

Ukrainians actually didn’t want to join nato until Russia annexed crimea . So if Ukrainians want to join nato now , it is putins own doing .

Putin simply didn’t want ukraine leaving Russia’s sphere of influence . I will repeat this again, this has nothing to do with nato . He doesn’t view ukraine as its own country and simply doesn’t want it joining up with the west .

Russias time as a superpower is over and it died in 1991, this was their last ditch attempt at going back to being a superpower. This war is simply because of a man with a distorted view of Eastern Europe and refuses to leave the eras when the Russian empire and Soviet Union were a thing

There is no more cowering to Putin . Hitler was appeased far too much and it is important history isn’t allowed to repeat itself . Because if you allow them what they want , they want more eventually . The cancer cannot be allowed to spread. It will result in more war

 

[Boroboyyo]

As Churchill said
“The Statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”

Churchill also believed we should have declared war on the Soviet Union shortly after ww2 to help Eastern Europe and save them from soviet tyranny .

Churchill knew what evil the Russians are capable of and viewed them in the same light as the nazis

 

[h_m_boro]

When the Russians are booted out of Ukraine their country/ economy will be wrecked and they will probably be in as bad a position as Germany after the Treaty of Versailles in 1918.

No way they will be allowed to rebuild their armies to the same level.....which may cause a lot of resentment with the old guard. And what about their nukes....... Obviously Russia is a very big country and things potentially could be done on the sly, but can imagine they will be closely monitored whatever they do.

Can see NATO moving into a DMZ to protect both sides from further scraps, which should give Ukraine some security. But the political situation in Russia - who knows what an earth will happen here. Its an absolute clusterf*ck of mind boggling proportions. And then there is Wagner......

Peace? Civil war?

 

[Muttley]

Churchill knew what evil the Russians are capable of and viewed them in the same light as the nazis

I'm sorry that is not right. Russian people are no different to you or I. There are good Russians and there are bad ones. Same as here.

If you are going to take the high ground and say what a "people" are capable you would have to gloss over the historical actions of the English and British Empire. Ask an Irishman.

 

[Boroboyyo]

I'm sorry that is not right. Russian people are no different to you or I. There are good Russians and there are bad ones. Same as here.

If you are going to say what a "people" are capable you would have to gloss over the historical actions of the English and British Empire. Ask an Irishman.

Physically, yes. Mentally they are different though. Most of the Russians who are against the war have now left . while the Russian government no doubt distort their polls I have no doubt over 50% would support Putin in a legitimate election , so in turn support what he’s doing .

Classic whataboutism, because we were an empire at one point we should be judged the same now as to what Russia are doing in Ukraine . It’s not even worth dignifying really . No idea why people on the hard to far left try and defend Russia so much really when their current leader is actually a fascist. Is it previously because the ussr were commies ? I can understand the far right liking him , but that’s because he’s one of them

 

[Redwurzel]

Russia doesn't need anything.

What it wants is immaterial, it's not a justification for invading.

Russia fearing invasion from the West is a ridiculous excuse for invading another country.

Ukraine didn't exist as an independent entity until 1917, it doesn't mean that it didn't exist before then, what is now independent Ukraine was involved in the Crimean War.
Crimea only became part of the then Russian Empire in 1783, and it only became a slight majority ethnic Russian in the 1940s after 150 years of ethnic cleansing and genocide, and a very deliberate programme of non-ethnic Russian deportations in the 1940s, it was decisively part of Ukraine from 1954, and was part of Ukraine when it became independent.

I'm not sure where you've got the made-up 1991 info from.

Speaking Russian does not make you Russian, Zelensky is a native Russian speaker.
Being ethnically Russian doesn't mean you want to be part of Russia.
At no point during this conflict has Russia not been involved, every uprising in Crimea and the Donbass has either been started by or supported by Russia.

TC - I agree with most of what you have written.

Crimea obviously has a very chequed history.

My original post said without negotiations there will be no short term peace. Sometime in negotiations you have to accept the other side will want something that you don't want to give in an ideal World and you have to some extent understand your opponent and what is important to them.

I posted to show Crimea was different from most of the rest of Ukraine not that it belonged to the Russia Federation. The negotiations to me would be about giving the Russia access to the Black sea Crimean ports and possibly a true federal state for Crimea, in return for end of the conflict. I am sure it is not what Zelensky wants, but in negotiations that's what happens. The Unionists in Northern Ireland did not want to power share. The Irish Government in 1922 did not want to split Ireland, but both were done, thankfully for peace.

I am sure Russia has been involved in many conflicts in the former Soviet Union republics, but they can only keep involved long term with local support and I don't defend them.

According to Wikipedia, Crimea was set up as the Republic of Crimea in 1991 - see below - to answer your question of where that information came from.

Crimea - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Some posters appear to consider Putin the same as Hitler - I said he was a nasty piece of work with few morals, but he is different to Hitler. Hitler wanted to destroy a race of people, destroy anyone strong left wing, World domination by the Germanic people etc - he talked the need for breathing space in the East. Hitler was on a crusade. To me Putin is more like the old Soviet Leaders/Tsars, he wants to increase Russian influence and make the Russian Federation more like the of Soviet Union, but not to say invade Western Europe to create breathing space for Russians etc or have you all speak Russian by 2040. Hitler in 1938 pretended to negotiate, knowing he would soon break it, because of his bigger plans of world domination or self-destruction, Putin's bigger plan to me is the remain Russian Leader for another 10 years, increase Russian influence and die a natural death.

 

[Muttley]

No idea why people on the hard to far left try and defend Russia so much really when their current leader is actually a fascist.

Well, firstly I am not defending the actions of Putin or those who support him. I am stating and I will brook no argument that the Russian people are no different to you or I.

giving the Russia access to the Black sea Crimean ports

*cough" Novorossiysk

They have a Black Sea port. In fact I would say that removing their access to Sevastopol would be the bruised nose that they could not paint as a victory at home. As you say they fought Britain and France in the Crimean War, they picked a fight against the most sophisticated and powerful army (France) and navy (Britain) in the world at that time and lost. Badly.

 

[Redwurzel]

Physically, yes. Mentally they are different though. Most of the Russians who are against the war have now left . while the Russian government no doubt distort their polls I have no doubt over 50% would support Putin in a legitimate election , so in turn support what he’s doing .

Classic whataboutism, because we were an empire at one point we should be judged the same now as to what Russia are doing in Ukraine . It’s not even worth dignifying really . No idea why people on the hard to far left try and defend Russia so much really when their current leader is actually a fascist. Is it previously because the ussr were commies ? I can understand the far right liking him , but that’s because he’s one of them

We have to careful of demonisation and propaganda - I am a bit concerned our media is starting to heavily demonise.

Putin is a nasty piece of work, but many ordinary Russians (particularly young men) are victims too as are Ukrainians of course. War also brutalises solders. If you see your buddy killed you want revenge, no matter what the cause. According to one poster on here around 100,000 young Russians solders have died in 16 months that will brutalise and the same for the Ukrainians.

I agree Putin is showing the traits of a fascist - overly nationalistic, dictatorial, aggressive, until recently a lot of the Soviet stuff is put in a negative light in modern Russian films (communists seen as hooligans, drunks, criminals, crass, ungamely i.e. the worst of the working class), Russian Orthodox church figures are put in a very positive light, wealth is to show off.

 

[Redwurzel]

Well, firstly I am not defending the actions of Putin or those who support him. I am stating and I will brook no argument that the Russian people are no different to you or I.

*cough" Novorossiysk

They have a Black Sea port. In fact I would say that removing their access to Sevastopol would be the bruised nose that they could not paint as a victory at home. As you say they fought Britain and France in the Crimean War, they picked a fight against the most sophisticated and powerful army (France) and navy (Britain) in the world at that time and lost. Badly.

We are getting distracted about ending the current war.

However in the Crimea we lost 22,000 dead over a dispute about rights to visit Palestine for Russian Orthodox worshippers? - hollow victory

The Russians surprise/surprise lost their rights to use the major Black Sea ports, so someone thought it was important then.

However we got a street named Alma and pub named the Raglan in the Boro from it.

I will have to read Tim Marshall again with ref to Black Sea ports, but he felt it was a big issue in Russia.

Maybe its like the British and Gibraltar.

 

[italianjob]

Are you asking me?

Sorry, no. I was just adding to your comment and wondering about the relevance of the original post.

 

[Redwurzel]

I agree with what some are saying that Putin is longing for what was the Soviet Union. He is a product of the Soviet Union and KGB.

The Soviet Union collapsed extremely quickly in 1990 and within 12 months around half of it seemed to have gone.

Then there was a land grab by dubious characters and opportunists (within all parts of the former Soviet Union) and now there is a new nationalism in the Russia Federation to grab some of their old power and influence back that was lost in 1991. Also some ethnic Russians may feel little belonging in their new countries.

My reason for posting in this thread was how to possibly end the war without many more deaths and destruction. My angle was that this is unlikely to be a short conflict without talking.

 

[Redwurzel]

I don't know a great deal about the Vietnam war, but wasn't the USA pretty much fighting that without the support of most of the world (and NATO)?

Quite a few differences with this (from a basic point of veiw):
It's not in the dense jungle which basically made modern weapons (for the 60's), and limited intelligence practically pointless/ useless
North Vietnamese were apparently very loyal, and in their own backyard, the Russians aren't going to be as loyal as Ukrainians, and don't want to be there (seemingly)
USA, and the world learned a lot from Vietnam I expect
All of NATO are on Ukraine's side
The volume of intelligence NATO has will be absolutely massive, and ever-increasing
NATO can fight and fund by proxy (no troop losses, no public outcry against it and no real reason to give up, quite the opposite)
Strangling NV's economy isn't really going to do a great deal, where as doing it to Russia's will
NV probably didn't have a load of restricted rich oligarchs, which Russia clearly does

I've been to the gulf a few times (for Iraq and Afgan etc), and it's extremely difficult fighting in a place you're not in the slightest bit used to, on an unimaginable level. But as much as it's obvisouly horrendous for Ukraine, it is the ideal climate for Ukrainians to fight (as well as Russians of course), but importantly it's a climate where most of NATO's gear will suit extremely well, even the old gear etc.

Andy

The ultimate test will be where we are in 6 months, if Russia is close to cracking it will be over in 2023.

 

[Muttley]

My reason for posting in this thread was how to possibly end the war without many more deaths and destruction. My angle was that this is unlikely to be a short conflict without talking.

And the point stands.

What are you going to talk about? How much of Ukraine would you be happy with Vlad?

I don't accept that there was any great wish for Russian speakers in Crimea or The Donbas to leave Ukraine. To go all "Godwin" on it, c.f. German speaking people in Czechoslovakia in 1938. Oh of course you can always count on a few making noises at the behest of the Russians and there would have been some who perhaps pined for the "old days" but it is a very familiar play book. Destabilise then invade on the pretext of protecting your "kinsmen". It's nonsense.

 

[HolgateCorner]

Well done to the posters above who broadened the debate out despite coming under a bit of hostile fire at times.

If we shut down alternative views and opinions we are just as bad as the likes of Putin.

This claiming of land is an interesting debate, who decides where the line on the map should be?

A friend of mine had a father in law who was born in Lviv when it was part of Poland. I asked him if he really regarded himself as Ukrainian in accordance with the modern day boundary but apparently he thought himself 100% Polish, no argument.

 

[borolad259]

Wow, busy day in here. Okay. Annoying stuff... our man, my mate, has basically unresigned from the military. So he says. Not the best news I've had.
Anyway, Had a few missives. I'll start with this update.

"There has been so much today that I felt it best to break things up, with the effect that I am spaming...
Mea Culpa!

But, since things are going spectacularly pearshaped everywhere for Russia I thought it was time to update with what can be said.
So, here is the frontline update.

Finland
Without telling anyone in NATO Finland uttered the famous words Hakka Päälle Pohjan Poika!
They are now moving troops, equipment, breaking out ammo stores, in other words, they are piling up at the border to Russia at two locations.
In Brussels they are happily learning that they let the crazy nordics into NATO, and without us there is nothing holding Finns even remotely sane when they get blood thirsty.
As the NATO emergency meeting the Finnish general got up and said Hakka Päälle Pohjan Poika, and then just set down and refused to talk more.
I am not sure what they will do, but I would **** myself if I had a Finnish Army massing on my border.

For those not familiar with the phrase, it was last used in the war against the Soviet Union.
But here is the beginning of the phrase.
Hakkapeliitta - Wikipedia

Bilhorod
The liberation forces have grown in numbers and are now above 500 as more Russians sign up and more Poles somehow show up trying to speak Russian in a convincing way.
The current occupation is now on day 6, and they have set up a logistics train.
Russia is now holding about 75 percent of Shebekino, but are ever so slowly being pushed backwards.
People are astounded that 500 soldiers can push the Russian Army backwards, but those pundits forget the low quality of the Russian Army soldiers, and the massive and precise artillery support the FRL can call up in an instant.
FRL does not really fight, they just meander about to find Russians, and then call in arty strikes on the hapless Russians.
This probably means that they will not be able to at this point go much further than 25-30km from the border since this would be the artillery range.
Ukraine is not about to waste a lot of Excalibur shells on this part of the front.

Bakhmut
Somehow the Ukrainians are shovelling a five times larger army backwards there.
This would be impossible obviously without a massive advantage in artillery and heavy equipment.
I can't say exactly how far they have gotten in taking the two pincers, but let us say that they now have the high ground and will in about 5-10 days have Bakhmut in tactical encirclement, and in 10-20 days in a full pocket.
There's even progress now in Bakhmut itself.

Avdivka
Ukraine has moved forward another 100 meter directly towards Donetsk City.
Not due to heavy fighting, just Russians melting away from the relentless pounding they are taken, and perhaps more importantly, due to Russia having moved even more troops towards Bakhmut.

Vuhledar
Frontlines towards Donetsk City and towards Mariupol have been breached after minor skirmishes.
This happened after the Russian artillery stopped firing, probably due to a combination of shell-hunger and Ukrainian effective counter-battery fire.
Pavlivka, Mykil's'ke and Volodymyrivka seems to have been liberated and they are moving towards the next defensive line.

In the Novodonetska to Novodarivka breach they have moved more than 5km and are now at the second defensive line at Staromlynivka. The speed was helped by them following the road.
Other troops are following behind now to take and hold the liberated land.
This is the back road to Mariupol and Berdyansk.
The main road (H20) goes from newly liberated Volodymyrivka near Vuhledar, but to use that they must first take Ol'hynke and Pil'ne.

Zhaporizhzhia
In Zhaporizhzhia they have breached from where the dam used to be all the way to Polohiy, it is going well.
But, this is an area where Ukraine has asked everyone specifically to shut up, and I understand them from what is at stake now.

I have previously alluded to there being weapons stored in Ukraine that was not cleared for use by Ukraine, weapons to be released only if Russia ****ed up.
Those have been released for use in Zhaporizhzhia.
What they are I can't say, more than that it is the heaviest weapons that west have below nuclear weapons, some of them are in the range of a small tactical nuke.

Tonight
There will be things happening tonight that will shorten the war hopefully.
From now on every night will be extremely bad for Russia.
You will see tomorrow(ish) what I am talking about. "

I mean, feck knows.