The end?

Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants said:
Another twist…..
Click to expand...

Here's what I recived .... will post in chronological order as it seems to be a rapidly changing scenario.

"News are exploding about Ukraine potentially having started a full scale invasion of Russia"

What is known is that the Liberty Legion (Russian volunteer unit fighting for Ukraine) stormed and totally annihilated the Russian Customs and Border Protection post on the main highway towards Belgorod City.
There are reports of them moving forward, and anecdotal reports of further units from the Ukrainian regular army with heavy gear.

Ops (ours) state that this is likely to be either a very heavy diversionary attack or a full scale invasion.
Among the units idling at the border is the monster brigade we sent to Ukraine.

There are also videos of the Liberty Legion promising to liberate Moscow.

Early hours, but here we go.
It will be hours until we know for sure what the hell is happening.

My initial thought, Ukraine got permission during G7 to invade Russia."

Then

"A short update.
Units of the regular Ukrainian army is now confirmed to have crossed Rubicon.
Among them is the overpowered NBG under it's new commander (guess who).
It and the other forces are hauling **** down the highway blowing **** up as they go.

Permission has indeed been given at the G7 summit to invade the border regions of Russia, primarily Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk.

As I mentioned previously it was highly suspicious the shear volume of artillery fire that Ukraine used against Belgorod.
Also, that order of evacuation that was running nonstop over dozens of civilian radio channels was also a dead giveaway.

From a military standpoint, there is nothing that Russia can do against this invasion.
All of their troops are at the wrong places, and there is nothing that can be brough in due to railroad bridges having been cut.
The Russian Governor of Belgorod has fled the City for Moscow, and so have many others in the civil authorities.

I fully expect Ukraine being at the gates of the City later this afternoon/evening and the City to fall sometime tomorrow, unless Ukraine for some reason hold back or stop.

I suggest that the new name should be Ukrainian People's Republic of Belgorod."

then

"Here are the towns and villages confirmed to already having been liberated in the Special Police Operation in support of the Russian Liberty Legion with the mission to secure democracy and freedom of Russian citizens:
Kozinka, Glotovo, Grayvoron, Masychovo, Golovchino, Krasivo and Zozuli.
Currently under attack is Borisovka.
This means that Ukraine is almost halfway to Belgorod

Radio channels are blaring that these are Russian forces that are there to liberate them and restore democracy in Russia, and that they are supported by SPO forces from Ukraine.
The message is saying among other things: "Do not be afraid, we are Russian forces that has come to liberate Russia, remain calm and it will be over soon".

And here is the kicker, it is sanctified by Xi.
"Ukraine's involvement in an internal conflict of Russia is not of concern for China".

Then

"I just got a picture from Seretino as our favourite one barged through in tanks and CVs decked out in the White-Blue-White flag of Russia that is used by the opposition and the Blue/yellow of Ukraine.
She has blasted away from the other units and seem to be on a private thunder-run to Belgorod hitting speeds of 50km hour between the villages and towns, she clipped Seretino at that speed without even slowing down...

People where out in the streets waving all sorts of old Russian flags (pre-putin) that they somehow found or made, and a few hastily sewn "Ukrainish" flags.
Seems like Putin was not that Universally loved...

Dozens of private jets and Russian Air Force government planes have started to airlift people out of Moscow to China.
It is believed that Xi have guaranteed their safety as long as they give up and get the hell out of Russia.
And, seemingly the rats are fleeing at breakneck speed as the holy wrath of Ukraine is barging down the highways towards them.

"Do not give me ammo, give me a ride"
Vladimir Putin, Former President of Russia

(I am trying my best to get those pictures of her flying through Seretino released for publication)
And no, I was not bawling when I saw them, there is just an inconveniently lodged elephant in my eyes..."

All this was between 10.am and 1.35 pm
 
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borolad259 said:
Here's what I recived .... will post in chronological order as it seems to be a rapidly changing scenario.

"News are exploding about Ukraine potentially having started a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

What is known is that the Liberty Legion (Russian volunteer unit fighting for Ukraine) stormed and totally annihilated the Russian Customs and Border Protection post on the main highway towards Belgorod City.
There are reports of them moving forward, and anecdotal reports of further units from the Ukrainian regular army with heavy gear.

Ops (ours) state that this is likely to be either a very heavy diversionary attack or a full scale invasion.
Among the units idling at the border is the monster brigade we sent to Ukraine.

There are also videos of the Liberty Legion promising to liberate Moscow.

Early hours, but here we go.
It will be hours until we know for sure what the hell is happening.

My initial thought, Ukraine got permission during G7 to invade Russia."

Then

"A short update.
Units of the regular Ukrainian army is now confirmed to have crossed Rubicon.
Among them is the overpowered NBG under it's new commander (guess who).
It and the other forces are hauling **** down the highway blowing **** up as they go.

Permission has indeed been given at the G7 summit to invade the border regions of Russia, primarily Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk.

As I mentioned previously it was highly suspicious the shear volume of artillery fire that Ukraine used against Belgorod.
Also, that order of evacuation that was running nonstop over dozens of civilian radio channels was also a dead giveaway.

From a military standpoint, there is nothing that Russia can do against this invasion.
All of their troops are at the wrong places, and there is nothing that can be brough in due to railroad bridges having been cut.
The Russian Governor of Belgorod has fled the City for Moscow, and so have many others in the civil authorities.

I fully expect Ukraine being at the gates of the City later this afternoon/evening and the City to fall sometime tomorrow, unless Ukraine for some reason hold back or stop.

I suggest that the new name should be Ukrainian People's Republic of Belgorod."

then

"Here are the towns and villages confirmed to already having been liberated in the Special Police Operation in support of the Russian Liberty Legion with the mission to secure democracy and freedom of Russian citizens:
Kozinka, Glotovo, Grayvoron, Masychovo, Golovchino, Krasivo and Zozuli.
Currently under attack is Borisovka.
This means that Ukraine is almost halfway to Belgorod

Radio channels are blaring that these are Russian forces that are there to liberate them and restore democracy in Russia, and that they are supported by SPO forces from Ukraine.
The message is saying among other things: "Do not be afraid, we are Russian forces that has come to liberate Russia, remain calm and it will be over soon".

And here is the kicker, it is sanctified by Xi.
"Ukraine's involvement in an internal conflict of Russia is not of concern for China".

Then

"I just got a picture from Seretino as our favourite one barged through in tanks and CVs decked out in the White-Blue-White flag of Russia that is used by the opposition and the Blue/yellow of Ukraine.
She has blasted away from the other units and seem to be on a private thunder-run to Belgorod hitting speeds of 50km hour between the villages and towns, she clipped Seretino at that speed without even slowing down...

People where out in the streets waving all sorts of old Russian flags (pre-putin) that they somehow found or made, and a few hastily sewn "Ukrainish" flags.
Seems like Putin was not that Universally loved...

Dozens of private jets and Russian Air Force government planes have started to airlift people out of Moscow to China.
It is believed that Xi have guaranteed their safety as long as they give up and get the hell out of Russia.
And, seemingly the rats are fleeing at breakneck speed as the holy wrath of Ukraine is barging down the highways towards them.

"Do not give me ammo, give me a ride"
Vladimir Putin, Former President of Russia

(I am trying my best to get those pictures of her flying through Seretino released for publication)
And no, I was not bawling when I saw them, there is just an inconveniently lodged elephant in my eyes..."

All this was between 10.am and 1.35 pm
Click to expand...

Exciting, terrifying movements...

This should be massive news in the next few days, not so much the territory being taken but the fact that Putin and his inner circle are fleeing. At that point surely this is game over right here, right now.
 
If this is the case. It would seem that the Russian troops left in Ukraine will be without ammunition, food and supplies. Seems like the August’14 moment. Drop the weapons, turn around and start walking home. An option I doubt that will be available to the Wagner forces.
 
I don't know who it is that is fleeing to china at this stage. And if I were them, I'm not sure I'd trust Xi not to turn them all in eventually.
 
Russian nuclear doctrine suggests they would only use those weapons if Moscow was under attack doesn‘t it? Existential threat to Russia, its been mentioned a few times that Moscow IS Russia.
 
Subbuteo_171 said:
Russian nuclear doctrine suggests they would only use those weapons if Moscow was under attack doesn‘t it? Existential threat to Russia, its been mentioned a few times that Moscow IS Russia.
Click to expand...

Yes. Though, as I understand it, the G7 have only given permission for the Ukraine to enter border territories (Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod). i don't think they have any intention of going to Moscow. It is likely designed to do several things. Ferment discontent, be diversionary and draw Russian forces from the south, create a bargaining chip, undermine the Russian propoganda narrative. Whether or not it works out that way, who can tell?

I might add that China has told Russia that using nuclear weapons is a no go.
 
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I think he has had a bit of a day!

"Well, that was an interesting afternoon / evening.
A while back I was particularly stubborn, so I wrote a report on the possibility of a Northern front forming.
And as per usual everyone laughed at me.


Invading Russia was not entirely liked in all corners of the coalition supporting Ukraine, so a meeting was held, and since "we" (ie the top brass) could say that "we have known this for a month"... cudos befell Sweden since it had been included in a single line in a single report that there was a risk for that.
Anyway, Ukraine had to explain themselves so thoroughly that I will have to be very careful about what to write or not from now on.
I will therefore keep to published news, and keep my opinions a tad less open at least.

Who?
Well, beside the Russians the Georgian Legion and the other international legions are involved as the invasion force.
Beside that one regular mech brigade and the overmuscled NBG is there, but they are not invading Russia according to Ukraine.
Instead they are a "Special Police Operation" observing that the "Russian Internal Conflict" is not "getting out of hand".
It is portrayed as a a force establishing peace and to "protect Russian children from being shelled by the Russian army".
There was more along those lines, and I must admit that I had a huge problem keeping a straight face...

Where?
There is more than one vector of attack, and it is more than one Oblast that is being subject to "child-protection".
Beside the force that have taken parts of Belgorod (firmly occupied blue area that is weirdly shaped like a huge shlong with balls) there is the advanced force far ahead racing into the night towards Belgorod.
It is our favourite colonel racing against the Georgian Legion, both want to be first.
Since the Georgians are mainly in Humwee's and she is on her usual tracked feet it is an uneven race.
The Russians did though have opinions and finally blew up the bridges in their way...

Another attack is going on up to 50km inside Kursk, and there is at least heavy shelling in large parts of Bryansk with reports of gun fire.
Way beyond what a battalion of happy Russians can manage on their own.
There's also Black Unit's dropping behind the lines like flies unto a juicy carcass.

Who again?
Since there are no army forces even remotely able to stop the "Russians", the FSB was sent out to stop them.
They took one quick look at the advancing wall of armour bopping along at breakneck speed and decided that being somewhere else in civilian clothing was a good idea indeed.
They left what equipment they had behind as they ran like little hens into the bushes.
The artillery units and air defence units also did not want to play, but they just gave up.
And one unit took things to the extreme, they turned their guns around, slapped on blue/yellow stickers (tape) and opened fire in the other direction as they turned coat to the surprise of the "Russians".
Now, imagine the scene where "Russians" find "Ukrainians" firing on Russians...

What?
It is a broad attack, that is for sure.
Seemingly they are doing exactly what I wrote was possible, and almost to a T they are following my hypothetic battle plan, but with some really unique twists like using "Russians" and calling their own involvement a Special Police Operation.
Side note here, the "Russians" took the phrase Special Police Operation so far that they raided a police station, stole the uniforms, and that prompted the FSB to declare hunting season on ALL uniformed policemen in all of Belgorod...
This was not a part of the plan, and the numbnuts that did it was sent back to Ukraine...
Anyways, there are no uniformed policemen remaining in Belgorod at this point in time.

Part of it is to set off the Liberty Legion of Russia as a resistance force that can go up against anyone.
And this will become important later on since nobody in their right mind is about to let Russia continue like it is.
It is highly time for a Democratic Liberation, and that must be done by Russians, but first they need a big win so that likeminded young Russians flock to the white-blue-white banner.

The other part is to serve Russia the first true TKO.
Will Ukraine stop?
Well, this is where I can't answer, not even really speculate (since I would not be doing that).
All I can say is something blooming obvious, it will lock down Russian troops if they have half a brain.
There is though the distinct possibility that they will continue to go for Bakhmut to the price of even a large chunk of Russia.

Nukes
Russia today moved their store out of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh.

What will happen now?
All I can say, I would have popcorn ready tonight and during the next few days."
 
Druss_The_Legend said:
From being the second strongest military in the world, to being second strongest military in Ukraine the way things are going today it won't be long before they are the second strongest military in Russia!
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I had to edit out a lot of stuff that I wish I could include. It is going to be interesting. He kept saying that the Ukrainians were promising a surprise! I think I have guessed what the plan is.
 
borolad259 said:
Nukes
Russia today moved their store out of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh.
Click to expand...
Best hope they stick to their nuclear doctrine, from your description this is a complete collapse of Russia's entire military on home soil.

Is your man not at all worried that someone up the food chain with the ability to push the button just goes '**** em if they can't take a joke'?
 
borolad259 said:
I had to edit out a lot of stuff that I wish I could include. It is going to be interesting. He kept saying that the Ukrainians were promising a surprise! I think I have guessed what the plan is.
Click to expand...
This is my guess(and it is only a guess). I think Russia will need to pull troops out of the other regions to try defend Belgorod and the other surrounding states, I think as these reinforcements are en route a series of smoking accidents will befall the reinforcements.
I think the region's captured by the Russian rebels will be fortified to some degree so Russia can't let up in the attack on that which in turn will draw troops away from the other sites further weakening the Russian military.
That is when the counter offensive will really kick off. I wouldn't be surprised if an attack came from the south somewhere around Kherson towards Crimea, another major attack from somewhere near zaporizhzhia towards Mariupol and then some more smaller attack and artillery in the northern areas (kharkiv region)keep the Russians pinned down and nervous.
If Ukraine can get towards Mariupol they can blow the bridge and basically cut Crimea off fully and basically lay seige until it surrenders(which wouldn't be long with very limited food and water supplies going into it).
Today has seemed like a huge turning point in the war and in my opinion the first day of the proper counter offensive.
I also very much doubt that Wagner mercenaries will be getting the holiday in Africa like the boss of them had planned now that the poop has hit the turbine.
 
I nearly wrote a short while back whether it might be that Ukraine assist the creation of an armed force of captured Russians prepared to march on Moscow and remove Putin and the war mongering faction, as the only way to end the war without Ukraine in a state of constant alert against a humiliated Russian top brass rebuilding and recommencing hostilities. A Ukrainian force would risk nuclear war, but peace can never happen without a change at the top in Russia.

Then I dismissed it as I figured Ukraine just couldn’t take that risk of arming a group of Russians who could possibly turn back on them.

But it kind of is happening and might topple dominoes that do fall on Moscow.
 
alvez_49 said:
Best hope they stick to their nuclear doctrine, from your description this is a complete collapse of Russia's entire military on home soil.

Is your man not at all worried that someone up the food chain with the ability to push the button just goes '**** em if they can't take a joke'?
Click to expand...

I suppose it is always a risk but, apparently, the fella with the codes is actually quite sane and, because he talks to the Americans all the time, he would be under no illusions as to the consequences.

As for the offensive, even though our man not only suggested that this option may well happen a long time ago and, just this last week stated that it made a lot of sense militarily, he expected it to happen later. But, as he says in his last post, because he now knows what the plans are, chapter and verse, he can no longer speculate for us in the same way .... because it would not really be speculation and so, for opsec reasons, not for publication. We should though still get his observations on events "as they happen" or a lot closer to real time than you will get in many other places.

Note the BBC's reporting yesterday, basically reciting the Russian narrative, from the Russian news agencies, that a small bunch of saboteurs had crossed the border.

Overnight the FSB headquarters in Belgorod had "an existential crisis".
 
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Short morning update.

"As the regular units are leaving Russian territory the Grayvoron district is still firmly in Russian Liberty hands as the Liberty Russians are holding against the Murdering Army Russians.
Things have taken a darker turn as the FSB troops started to use GRADs on the towns in Grayvoron.
Yeah, you read that correctly, Russian forces are now openly bombarding their own people for all that they are worth.
The Liberty Russians are not equipped to evacuate and safeguard that many civilians, so it is quite a grim situation.

Ukraine is doing what it can by taking out the GRADs from their side of the border, and this partially explaining the increased number of destroyed artillery, yesterday that was 40 destroyed tube artillery and an unknown number of missile artillery.

If I may hint, expect some other news soon."
 
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