Soz, meant to put this up. Just general stuff ...
"New Wars and New Tidings
The world has started to change and shift in an ever more rapid way as a new world order is developing, ancient trajectories are now shifting rapidly as various countries try to find new roles, and fill up space left by others.
This has been highly evident in the last few days.
NATO Expansion
NATO is now rapidly expanding in the Pacific on an unprecedented scale.
Japan is now a hangaround and expected to become a member of the ever less well named alliance.
Same goes with Australia and New Zealand.
On it's own this would have been a significant curtailing of China.
India has also started to move away from Russia for its security needs.
First there was arms deals with Japan, then talks directly with NATO countries about weapons...
And now there is even a tentative discussion about India becoming a partner program member.
From an Indian standpoint Russia has probed to be unreliable as a defence partner, and the West has proven as a reliable and staunch defender of democracy and freedom.
India also has two large powerful enemies on their borders, Pakistan and China.
India can probably fend of China, but not both at the same time.
And with Russia gone there is only one hand that can help them.
Obviously India will be content with a partnership, and not be interested in a full membership (at least short/medium-term).
But, with India tilting towards the West China is indeed in deep creek of ****.
China
China is now left alone after breaking with Russia.
Forbidding everyone to even talk to the Russian delegation led by Prime Minister Mishustin during the summit was the snub of all time.
China has no remaining friends except North Korea (and barely that).
They do not have the military capacity to take on the West + Allies, so expansion through military means is gone.
Well, they could take parts of Russia I guess, but I do not think that they even dare that now.
Instead the future option would be to sort of play nice, and stick to a firm neutral position.
Iran/Taliban War
Afghanistan declaring war on Iran was not something that anyone could foresee.
And everyone with tinfoil for headgear harping about it being set up by the CIA/Mossad/Illuminati/NWO... is just insane.
This is completely homegrown and is due to fights over the control of the Helmand Dam, and the water rights from it.
As such this is the first of many water wars.
The Taliban was very successful as they stormed and took several border forts and blew them up.
Then they officially declared war upon Iran and woved to take Teheran.
Iran is now busy bringing forces up to the border, but this is further destabilising the country internally since they are at a low level civil war with their women (yup, you read right).
I expect Iran to quite comfortably chase off the Taliban short term, medium term they can secure their border, but longterm against insanely stubborn Talibon with their beards in a twist?
Especially while fighting a civil war with women I think that Iran will collapse and the Taliban to sort of win the war in the long run.
Turkey
Erdögan celebrated his win after sending out one of his ministers to hold a rousing campaign speach that was so darn chilling that it was full on insane.
In the speach he threatened everyone with war, and promised, among other things, to destroy the US Army withing 5 years.
Obviously Erdögan did not win the election in the real world, but through ballot stuffing and other means he merrily cheated himself into a comfortable win.
In short, Erdögan just put himself and Turkey into the supervillain position.
Even my normally chirpy and upbeat boss voiced deep concern.
I guess there will always be a new madman filling the shoes of the fallen madman."
