The end?

Some detail on the weapons discussed above. We may get less in the coming days as he has been moved from this conflict to the Nordic forces conflict with Wagner in Africa (mainly because he has experience of African warfare). His note, not here, was that what you see on twitter is usually 3 days old (video clips etc).

"The Ukrainians seem to jump hoops now, Day 1 was Terra Battalion taking a square kilometre to the North, Day 2 was Azov Battalion taking 7.8 square kilometres to the south near Klichi'ivka, and today it was back to Terra takin about 6 square kilometres just to the south of what Azov took the day before.
Let us look at what they are doing, and why it is pretty much genius.

Day one cleared out the threat to Khromove and the Northern supply road, it cleared the road and trainline (obviously there will be no trains going on it).
This locked down any Russian counter-offensives in this direction and secured the northern flank for future Ukrainian advances.

Day two opened up a big breach on the southern side, and made it possible to take a large Russian unit under operational encirclement with they way out under withering crossfire over open fields.
The Russians are now stuck in a forrest that is being mauled by Ukrainian heavy mortars.
It also opened up the road towards the important hub of Klichi'ivka, and at the same time created two fronts towards future southern unravelling of the front.

Day 3 doubled the breach length.
At the same time Ukraine started to mercilessly pound the remaining frontline north and east of the breach all the way to Bakhmut.
The artillery also opened up under direction of longrange drones on Klichi'ivka and settlements behind the town.
Several warehouses, depots, command centers, barracks, etcetera got deconstructed.
This lead Russia to try to remove equipment and tools, but due to the new longrange drones Ukrainian artillery took out the retreating Russian equipment as it travelled on the roads.

Due to internal fighting, lack of food, Ukrainian information campaigns, lack of ammo, the Russian morale is so low now that if they see a Ukrainian farting loudly they run.
Also, seeing Bradley's and other weird (to Russians) equipment galumphing about is scaring the living hell out of them.
Today was even worse for Russia than Day 2, as Ukraine drove up a tank or a Bradley the Russians just dropped their gear and weapons and legged it.

Behind the Breach more and more heavy mech units are amassing as Russia is about to see what western equipped mech units can do.
I heard a translated call from someone who saw a western tank in the distance, in his scared mind it looked more like Battleship New Jersey than a tank known to man...
I digress.

Conclusion
Day 1 could have been Ukraine clearing out positions to keep the road open for supplies.
Day 2 could with a tremendous amount of imagination be taken as Russian frontline prolapse to nerves.
But Ukraine pushing home the breach and mech bats swinging into position like no tomorrow is giving this away as a major offensive.

My take without giving away to much is that they will first go towards Klichi'ivka and then try to cut off Bakhmut to the South and East in a pincer move.
This means that Ukrain will have to produce a similar breach to the north of Bakhmut.
This could be achieved by punching straight up and East from the square kilometre taken on Day 1, or hit them a bit North of that to get room to manouvre behind the Russian lines, I would bet on the latter if I was a gambling man.

Is Bakhmut the only Ukrainian major offensive?
No, but it is the one that Ukraine wish to talk about.
In Zhaporizhzhia and Kherson Russia is very busy with buggering of to greener pastures, and why fight and lose lives when not needed?
All of it will very soon be Kherson all over again, where Ukraine just gently nudges any stragglers away in the end.
Crimea is a bit of a touch and go for the Russians so far, they have moved out some civilian authorities, but not yet any big evacuation, nor any troop withdrawals.
But, that will come as soon as Ukraine has cut (been given), Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia.

Ukraine will not attack Crimea directly, just pound them with their new missiles and artillery.
And about the same time that Ukraine is near the landbridges to Crimea the Kersh Bridge will drop down into the water.

Weapons news
Ukraine did not receive ATACMs, and was never about to get them.
But, since every pundit are sexually fixated with them everyone missed the HUGE meaning hidden in the images of the two-missile Himars cassettes.
These are way better than the ATACMs, those are Precision Strike Missile (PrSM, pronounced Prism).
They are the successors for the ATACMs and have a range of 60 to 490 kilometres.

Biden truly delivered here.
While pundits screamed Autaucmsssss, he gave Ukraine the entire load to be delivered to the US, this means that Ukraine fielded this weapon before the US itself.
I am stumped, we are talking about hundreds of pure Hell Class here, these are way worse than the Kinzhal's and the most state-of-the-art ballistic trajectory missile on the planet and immediately gave Ukraine the range to attack all of Crimea.

This was masked by other things like the GLSDBs and Stormshadows.
I think here it would be good to list the missiles that Ukraine is unleashing now.
Name, type, official range and warhead if I remember it from the top of my head.
1. HRIM-2, Ballistic medium range missile 800km, 500kg warhead. 50ish. Ukraine.
2. PrSM, Ballistic short/medium range (500km is the dividing line really) missile, 490km, 35kg. More than 500. US. Hell Class
3. RBS-15 Gungnir, 300km+, Cruise Missile Land/Sea target able, 500kg warhead. 50ish. Sweden. Hell Class
4. Stormshadow, 290km, Cruise Missile, 200kg warhead. 50ish. UK
5. GLSDB, 150km, Rocket launched Glide Bomb, 35kg, 5000 + 15 000 on the way. Sweden/US
6. GMLRS, 80km, ballistic short-range, 35kg, 5000ish. US.

The precision for each of these are ranging from 10 meter (HRIM-2) down to sub 1 meter for PrSM and Gungnir.
I hope that everyone understand the level of dread this is spreading in the Russian command.
They know that their preciousssssss bridge is there for exactly as long as Ukraine allows them to have it."
 
exiledinboro said:
Zelenskiy, saying he needs more time for the counter offensive

Day old report

www.bbc.co.uk

Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive

Ukraine's president says in an interview his country would "lose a lot of people" if it attacks now.
www.bbc.co.uk

Sounds like they've retaken Bakhmut
Click to expand...

There's all sorts of "maskirova" going on at the moment. I Think he's right in a sense. There'll be more probing attacks. More massaging of Russian logistics deeper into their territory, forcing them to move assets further away. And more time to ferment doubt and fear into the Russians waiting in trenches ... often with no food or supplies. Some of the accounts from Russian soldiers who have been at the front are mind boggling. Drinking water from wells that are full of corpses, because they had no option. No pay. No ammo. No coherent plan. Not even told where they are. Relieved of all of their documents. No wonder that they run when they see a well equipped and trained fighting force coming their way. Interesting that on Ukrainian nr Bakhmut said that Wagner were running away more than the RF troops.
 
On going deep .... (I've left out the first part which talks more about Sudan... which is the conflict he is operationally deployed to now.... he does this while also having a day job!!).

"Weapons over Ukraine
Since "soneone" has ferreted out a tweet about usage of an ADM-160 MALD-J (whopper of all acronyms) I can talk some more about it.
MALD-Js are counter radar electronic warfare decoy missiles, very state of the art, very hushhush.
It is only deployable from F-16s, B2, B1-Lander, B-52s and Gripen Es, officially.

Obviously there are no B-52s and no Gripen Es there. And the US would not deploy a B2, nor a B1-Lancer to Ukraine.
Nor are there any F-16s there either. They will probably be deployed in the end just to shut up the pundits and the Ukrainians, but it is not what Ukraine needed to begin with.
What they need is F-35s, but the US is a bit reticent to send them to say the least since Russia/China hasn't yet looked at them.
So, what is going on?

The MALD-Js are also deployable from the Ghosts of Wars past, the F-117 Nighthawk's.
And Ukraine has those, specifically 5 of them.
Officially they are decommissioned, but the US have them in flying mothball status, 33 of them to be exact.
And, they also have 5 that are in active status on the sly in a private company.
It is those 5 last that mysteriously arrived in Ukraine's most remote airbase.

Two of them attacked Luhansk, not a cruise missile as originally implied.
The missile found was the distance launched MALD-J that was protecting the other Nighthawk that dropped the JDAM.
By now Russia knows that there is something utterly insane flying there, and they are literally s***ing themselves since they know that they have nothing that can catch either the F-117 or B2...
And they correctly connected the dots, if Ukraine has access to those they can easily bomb Moscow, so all the higher ups meandered down into the bunkers, and they are not gonna come up a lot.

Bakhmut
On the southern flank the same Brigade continued to breach lines and widening the breach, and in the morning mist Russias greatest fear slowly trundled through and started to spread death and destruction as a battalion of Challenger IIs did what they do best towards Klichi'ivka.
It begun with Ukraine moving northward attacking the Russians in the forrest that was in tactical encirclement, they gave up after two hours of fighting.
Some was caught, some killed, and the rest ran away to Klichi'ivka.
This caused the 4th Motor Brigade to leave the defence line for Klichi'ivka.

...the 4th Motor Brigade leaving forced Prigozhin to send 500 Wagnerites to plug this hole.
These are troops he desperately needed to hold the line inside Bakhmut.
As they arrived their nightmare arrived.
The Challenger created a new dish called Wagner au Fricassé, and the defences North and West of Klichi'ivka was demolished.
This will over the next few days turn a rather nicely sized part of the Southern flank of Bakhmut into blue, and there are already rather large blotches of blue there. Blue = newly liberated area.

On the Northern flank another Assault Infantry Brigade daintily rode up in their Bradley's and started to create nice holes in the Russian lines.
In the end a 5km wide and 2km deep hole had been torn open towards Berkhivka and Yahidne.
Both Berkhivka and Yahidne was immediately taken under heavy shelling by Ukraine to set the stage for a second tank charge that went rolling immediately towards Berkhivka.
There are also a large force that is moving into attack from the north of this via Blahodatne and Krasna Horivka.

Offensive, limited offensive, locking offensive...
Pundits are tripping over themselves trying to explain that this is not a major offensive.
After all, they are only bothered since half a year with their fevered dream of the Zhaporizhzhia offensive.
So, they are trying to explain that this is not that, so they either claim that it was Russians fumbling, or that it is a limited offensive to lock down the Russians.

Ukraine did not need to do anything to lock down troops here more than holding on to Bakhmut.
The Russian sexual fetish would keep that third of the Russian army locked there anyway.
Russian mistakes and fumbles?
Yes and no, Russia definitely fumbled, but that happened after Ukraine started to push.
On top of that, you do not move large units in for an offensive by mistake.

No, this is a big offensive.
Ukraine is pulverizing large Russian Brigades both north and south of Bakhmut crushing the Russian pincers by counter pincer offensives.
And if you can do that successfully and quite comfortably against a third of the Russian army, then it is a big arsed offensive ongoing.
We can see this since there is ongoing heavy bombardment deep behind the lines, and there being ample amount of long range artillery available in the blink of an eye to press home advantages, or to powderize opposition if and when needed.

SPECULATION AND DREAMING PART

What Ukraine would do after Bakhmut (baring they win there)?
First, let me once again state that if Ukraine crushes a full third of the Russian army and drive them away from Bakhmut the political and military implications will be on a scale that might end the war.
But, Russia seems quite stubborn, they probably will require another big punch.

Western Pundits and Russian army seems to think that Ukraine will go towards Melitopol in Zhaporizhzhia.
Russia believes this so much that they are even moving out of the place to give Ukraine a nice and simple route for it.
This is not though the best option for Ukraine to cut the landbridge, especially since this would leave everything East of Berdyansk to the Russians.

The other and better option in my view is to go from Vuhledar down to Mariupol.
This cleanly cuts of a larger chunk, and opens up the flank towards Donetsk City.
Even if this part of the Ukrainian offensive would stall out before reaching Mariupol at let us say half way, Ukraine would still have cut the railroad, and have the main road under comfy shelling range.
Sort of cutting the region without even needing to go the full way, and this would also give an opening for later to either push on in a later second offensive, or to go towards Donetsk City.
Holding Vuhledar was brilliant on the Ukrainian part, it gives so many delicious options for Ukraine to exploit now."
 
Things are happening very quickly.

"The UAF have taken Klichiivka.
My takeaway is that Ukraine is gaining ground very rapidly for being such an incredibly well defended and well staffed region.
To achieve this Ukraine has defeated 3 different Russian Battalions in the last 48 hours (that I can report as the last 48 hours, remember that I am a couple of days late in my reporting due to OpSec).

It is the northern flank that is collapsing now, and basically Ukraine has reached Berkhivka in about 24 hours.
This means that Ukraine now has control over the higher ground for artillery to fire straight into Russian positions in Bakhmut through line of sight due to Bakhmut being in the lowlands (50m difference).

First at the south I thought it was a fluke that Ukraine could penetrate so easily, but seeing the same thing happening to the north, in the most well defended area on the entire frontline, speaks volumes about Russias problems.
-Russian lack of heavy equipment
-Russian lack of counter battery artillery
-Russian lack of ammunition
-Russian lack of communication
-Russian lack of fighting morale
-Russian lack of tactical support

What I find mind boggling is that there is a Ukrainian report where Ukraine is going "WTF?" themselves.
In it they claim that they have had lower casualty rate in killed and wounded compared to the Russian forces.
If this can happen in Bakhmut, the most well-defended part of the Russian occupied territory, imagine what will happen in less defended spots...
The Russian army is well and truly a spent force now."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657285379114909696
 
TeessideCleveland said:
View attachment 57738
Click to expand...
It's been reported that 4 aircraft(2 planes and 2 helicopters I believe) have been shot down over the Russian border, which has made Russia nervous as they will have to move the air force further back, obviously it is being said as accidental crash by the Russian propaganda machine.

Germany have announced a 2.5 billion aid package for Ukraine.

And I have also read that Switzerland is having a referendum on giving the green light to supply Ukraine with weapons (which if true is very surprising).

*These are only what I have read on twitter and tried to confirm with several sources, but still can't guarantee the accuracy of these reports*.
 
The downing of the aircraft happened. At least one, the Russians are saying that their own AA defence shot it down.I suspect I won't hear for a day or so. Even the most staunch Russian propogandists are bricking it now, though.
 
Just wondering...what happens to all this Ukrainian military hardware post war? Sent back to original owners,or will it make them a very powerful regional power?
 
SNEEKERS said:
Just wondering...what happens to all this Ukrainian military hardware post war? Sent back to original owners,or will it make them a very powerful regional power?
Click to expand...
Ukraine already provided much of the soviet military might. But a good portion of this stuff is on lend lease. Ukraine though is now one of the most powerful milittary countries on earth. Muchly due to pilferred russian stuff.
 
SNEEKERS said:
Just wondering...what happens to all this Ukrainian military hardware post war? Sent back to original owners,or will it make them a very powerful regional power?
Click to expand...

If and when the war ends, I very much doubt that Ukraine is going to be able to take it easy.

Russia's still their next door neighbour and will still have aggressive and genocidal intentions towards them.

They'll be a much more militarised country than they were before the initial invasions.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top