sherlock
Well-known member
Jesus, it should be shocking that people would openly say something so callous in such a way.
However it isn't, and that's a sad reflection of the state of our country today.
The 9am figures not disclosed yet?
- Thread starter bear66
- Start date
However it isn't, and that's a sad reflection of the state of our country today.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:
• 438 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 227 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 17.3% to 184.0 per day, following 6.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 20.9% lower than one week ago (from 46.8% lower yesterday) and 23.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 18.1% lower yesterday and 17.9% lower 7 days ago)
Today's reported deaths figure includes those which were delayed yesterday.
• 438 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 227 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 17.3% to 184.0 per day, following 6.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 20.9% lower than one week ago (from 46.8% lower yesterday) and 23.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 18.1% lower yesterday and 17.9% lower 7 days ago)
Today's reported deaths figure includes those which were delayed yesterday.
Fat_Dragon
Well-known member
USA reporting that yesterday they surpassed 1 million recorded deaths. Very sad to hear.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/covid-deaths-top-1-million-in-us-nbc-news-tally-shows.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/covid-deaths-top-1-million-in-us-nbc-news-tally-shows.html
Laughing
Well-known member
It's a stunning number.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I don't mean it that way, most who read my post history would understand that, but it's just a sad reality.
Not sure if the second part was a dig at me, or a dig at what has happened (which I've been saying all along was handled poorly), but I'll clarify a bit better anyway.
Had we faced reality better, acted quicker, tighter controls etc, then we could have saved a hell of a lot more lives, and would have also come out of the other side a lot quicker, overall it would have been better for everyone. I.e using the March 20 example, a lock down two weeks earlier, with more controls, could have got a grip on this when it mattered most, but because we delayed we ended up with a longer lock down, which was less effective against covid and more economically damaging. We can't bring people back from the dead, we just need to be realistic about why and how it happened, and do better next time. 1 minute at the front end of the covid chart is worth 10 at the end, as exponential growth is hard to fight and recover from.
Had we faced reality early, then there would be no need to point out the mistakes made, and what it cost (deaths), people burying their heads in the sand didn't stop people turning up to James Cook with Covid.
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Andy_W
Well-known member
Very sad indeed. Even sadder is that they've also under reported, not as bad as some mind, data from the WHO says India lost ~4.7m in that Delta wave, they under-reported it by 10x. This was blindingly obvious at the time from what we were seeing on the news, and I remember pointing it out numerous times.
14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021
New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million to 16.6 million)...
India's the worst on that list, as even factoring in for the excess multiplier (Egypt looks worse etc), the others had declared relatively low numbers for their populations. Ie India declared loads, but 10x less than it should have been.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:
• 228 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 438 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.9% to 185.7 per day, following 17.3% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 16.7% lower than one week ago (from 20.9% lower yesterday) and 33.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 23.0% lower yesterday and 4.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 228 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 438 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.9% to 185.7 per day, following 17.3% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 16.7% lower than one week ago (from 20.9% lower yesterday) and 33.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 23.0% lower yesterday and 4.7% lower 7 days ago)
Randy
Well-known member
What's causing the drop? Vaccination?
Mendieta14
Well-known member
school holidays will play a part
NorthumberlandBoro
Well-known member
Omicron running out of hosts to infect due to vaccination and natural immunity.
Better weather will help.
Better weather will help.
Borotommo
Well-known member
Ventilator bed occupation down to 253 on 5th May from 302 seven days earlier
Andy_W
Well-known member
Largely infection, on top of vaccination, causing immunity which either stops people being infected, or stops them getting to the point of being contagious.
Omicron spreads that fast it burns out extremely quickly, it's its own worst enemy effectively, especially in the short term. Long term immunity to infection may wane, but people will still be massively protected from previous infections and vaccinations.
Laughing
Well-known member
I suspect Andy, but I don't know, that we still have loads of infection, but it's dropping off because of the weather. But, and here I think you're right, most are never going to hospital or dying because of the protection via vacs and previous infections.
On a different subject, I thought the previous criticism of you was, out of context, and unfair. We were talking about the excess deaths and you can't talk about that without addressing the number of folks that died early.
We seldom agree, but you are a thoughtful and reasonable poster. Oh and Pele by anyone's measure is the goat
Andy_W
Well-known member
Apparently the weather/ seasonality thing doesn't mean much for the Western World, when R0 goes above 4, effectively anything from Delta onwards is just so transmissible it doesn't really matter how often people are outside or inside. We're always inside for large parts of the day, whether that's from getting away from the nightime chill, or like in Europe or the USA going inside for Air Con. 1 minute of being in the same room as Omicron could be worse than 15 minutes of the wild strain etc.
Schools, shops, houses, offices, hospitals are all indoors, all year, and one person in one of those can infect maybe 5-10x what the wild strains could do, which would easily overcome seasonality gains.
It's the same thing with masks, they would have had a limited (but very worthwhile) effect for the earlier strains, but they're kind of pointless against Omicron as it can't be stopped, and the masks aren't good enough to make back the increase in transmissibility.
The drop is just timing, coinciding with spring for BA2, and BA1 had reached it's limit mid Jan, still in the depths of winter etc.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Laughing
Well-known member
You're wrong on pele.Cheers, much appreciated.
I disagree on Pele
I get what you are saying about infection rates, but, my common sense tells me that being outdoors more must have an effect.
Well know next winter. My daughter asked me this week as I was driving her to school... So you think covid will ever go away? It maybe won't, and I do get concerned that next winter we will go back to lots of old folks dying when they didn't need to.
You are welcome on the defence of your comments. We have argued, debated and disagreed enough for me to know that you come from a place of honesty and you don't insult. Keep it up.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Being outdoors does, you're totally right on that, and the common sense of that is right, it will have an effect. The problem is it will only have an effect in that time period (maybe spending 2 hours per day more outside, so maybe 3 hours outside in summer average, compared to 1 hour winter average?), but that gain gets taken away by the 8x transmissibility increase (over wild variant) when you're inside for the other 21 hours.
Fag packet maths says you may need to spend 8 x more outside, to make up for the 8 x transmissibility, on the rough assumption that there's zero chance of catching it outside etc.
For Flu and the wild strain with R0's of 0.5-3, seasonality will have a much more noticeable effect, but BA2 won't, and neither did BA1, even Delta didn't, it's all about timing, when it arrives, that's when the wave hits. Look how it kicked off in South Africa, which was in the middle of summer, and the only reason it hit here in winter is because it arrived in winter, then it just burns out quick when it reaches an infection level high enough to counter the R0 (which was in winter). The reason for the second wave in March was timing again, BA2 having a higher R0, so again needing a higher infection rate to curb it (despite weather being slightly better).
The driver of the next wave will probably be waning immunity, but as that is probably well staggered, then this may help us avoid further large waves.
I don't think Covid will go away (as in become extinct), it was here before anyone had even heard of it (I hadn't heard of it in 2018 anyway), and the R0's are that high now that it will just circle around the world, finding gaps, infecting people who somehow avoided it, and reinfecting others, just like common colds/ flu does, it will probably go on forever. The impact of it will likely just get less and less and less, as vaccines and previous infection, and reinfection, and reinfection will just build up a massive resistance to the threat, it will just merge with colds and flu etc, and to me it already has. It's already less deadly than typical flu (only due to vaccines and prev infection etc), which is to me where we pretty much have to draw a line under it and largely forget about it (for those without immunity issues). If I had immunity issues I'd probably be very careful, to reduce risk, but may eventually give up on that just to feel more "normal", hard to say though, as I'm not in that boat and feel sorry for those who are.
Loads will die next winter, they always do it's been called EWM (excess winter mortality) for years, but I just don't see it being worse than an average flu year. Of course, that's still pretty crap, but surely this will have been a good lesson in how dangerous it can be passing on colds, flu, Covid to the elderly and those at risk. Maybe some will give up meeting the parents for crimbo dinner if the have some symptoms, which could end up saving quite a few lives which we otherwise would not have saved.
I appreciate the comments, it's been an interesting debate, and I've learned a lot over the last couple of years, and tried to pass some of that on, as best I can anyway
No need to apologise, I saw nothing wrong with that!
I know what you mean
Andy_W
Well-known member
The world deaths is now at less than half the level of previous "low points" after the initial wave, and less than a 1/3rd of any point in 2021, and is very near being below the deaths number the world was at when we entered our very first lock down, and still trending down.